Live data from Hacker News

Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

terenz.io

31–40 of 109 posts

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#31

If you're not a HNWI I wouldn't bother buying individual bonds (and if you are, you're probably paying someone to do it for you). You can get 99% of the benefit of this full ladder just using a few etfs. Check out $VGSH, $VGIT, $VGLT - expense ratios are only 0.07. But also if you're young you probably shouldn't worry about this. You don't hold many bonds anyway and you shouldn't be trying to time the market - just b…

> You can get 99% of the benefit of this full ladder just using a few etfs

Bond funds churn. Not only does this create tax implications, it also means instead of earning 2% (when prevailing rates are 3%), you lose 1%.

Bond funds are better bets for foreign, high-yield and other creditors where the credit component dominates the rate component. Paying someone to buy your Treasuries, on the other hand, is wasteful.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#32
You can also just buy a bond fund and "hold to maturity" exactly like a ladder does. That is, if you buy an intermediate bond fund, you need to hold for the 5-7 years in order to receive the stated return.

The only difference is a bond fund allows you see the true value of your holdings at any given time, where the ladder approach blissfully ignores the increasing/declining value due to interest rate movement and simply holds everything to maturity.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#34

This is something I've always wondered: Are treasury bond ladders strictly better than an equivalent treasury bond fund (say VFITX), because the interest rate risk can cause the bond fund to lose value while the treasury bond ladder is guaranteed to not lose value if held to maturation? Or is there some finance black magic that causes treasury bond ladders and treasury bond funds with the same effective maturity to h…

No, bond ladders are not strictly better than a bond fund. In theory, they are equivalent. In a bond fund, you simply see your loss on rising interest rates more directly.

Scenario 1 (holding bonds to maturity, i.e. bond ladder):

Let's imagine you invest in a $100 1yr bond at a 2% rate. You will be paid $102 in a year's time. Immediately after you buy the bond, the rate goes to 3%. You are locked into the bond, so you can't switch to the higher rate (i.e. you've lost out on a potential $1).

Scenario 2 (bond funds, ignoring reinvestment):

Instead imagine that you invest $100 in a fund that currently holds 1yr bonds at a 2% rate. You expect to be able to sell this fund in a year's time for $102. Now the rate changes to 3%. You are not locked into the fund, but the fund is locked into the bonds that they bought. If you can sell your shares in the fund for $100, you could then buy the new 3% rate bonds directly (i.e. you have avoided the loss due to the interest rate change). This would be a risk-free arbitrage between the fund and the new bonds. The price of the fund needs to drop to ~$99 to be "fair" (to be precise, it's 1.02/1.03, not exactly 99). If you sell at ~$99 and buy new 3% bonds directly, you will receive $102 in a year's time, just like scenario 1.

In short, the bond fund loses value because you maintain the optionality to withdraw whenever you want (and invest at higher rates if rates go up). The expected value between bond funds and bond ladders is still the same. In essence, the difference is between holding bonds to maturity and having the possibility of selling them, which doesn't change the expected value.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#35

This seems overly complicated. The market for bonds reflects the current inflation and interest conditions so selling bonds at any moment in time should on average be as profitable as holding them to maturity (except for broker fees which are usually quite small). I would just buy bonds and sell them if and when required.

I'm not sure that works universally. If you buy a bond with a 2% yield today that matures in 3 years and you decide to sell in 1 year instead and at that point the current rate is 3% the price you sell at will be lower than the price you paid so you won't make a 2% return in the first year... Re: fees depends on your platform. Fidelity charges no fees or markups for treasuries but if your platform does it's something…

What you're missing is that on average the market would have factored that into the price of the 1 year bond.

If you look at past data there is on average no difference between buying 1 year bonds and keeping them to maturity and buying 3 year bonds and selling after 1 year.

The only case maybe for buying 1 year bonds is where you have another contract which matures in 1 year denominated in the same currency. E.g. I have a mortgage payment of $1020 that I have to make in 1 year so I should invest $1000 into a bond that pays 2% interest.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#36
post #32

You can also just buy a bond fund and "hold to maturity" exactly like a ladder does. That is, if you buy an intermediate bond fund, you need to hold for the 5-7 years in order to receive the stated return. The only difference is a bond fund allows you see the true value of your holdings at any given time, where the ladder approach blissfully ignores the increasing/declining value due to interest rate movement and sim…

I am not sure if that's true for non-fixed-maturity funds because the fund manager will keep the ladder rolling after 5-7 years, ie. the fund won't just pay out at maturity - they will keep reinvesting further and further into the future.

There are some bond funds called fixed-maturity funds that actually mature on a date and pay back the principal. Ie. they let all the bonds inside mature without reinvesting them. iShares iBonds are an example. But this is not the norm for bond funds.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that works universally. If you buy a bond with a 2% yield today that matures in 3 years and you decide to sell in 1 year instead and at that point the current rate is 3% the price you sell at will be lower than the price you paid so you won't make a 2% return in the first year... Re: fees depends on your platform. Fidelity charges no fees or markups for treasuries but if your platform does it's something…

What you're missing is that on average the market would have factored that into the price of the 1 year bond. If you look at past data there is on average no difference between buying 1 year bonds and keeping them to maturity and buying 3 year bonds and selling after 1 year. The only case maybe for buying 1 year bonds is where you have another contract which matures in 1 year denominated in the same currency. E.g. I…

> past data

Can you link that data? Is it data from the past 5-10 years? Or much more historical?

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#38

The Treasury lets you buy Treasuries directly [1]. No broker, no markup, no account fees. [1] https://www.treasurydirect.gov

Although you'll have to interact with TreasuryDirect, one of the worst, 90's era security decision websites. Their idea of secure password entry is (mandatory) clicking buttons on an on-screen keyboard.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#39
post #34

This is something I've always wondered: Are treasury bond ladders strictly better than an equivalent treasury bond fund (say VFITX), because the interest rate risk can cause the bond fund to lose value while the treasury bond ladder is guaranteed to not lose value if held to maturation? Or is there some finance black magic that causes treasury bond ladders and treasury bond funds with the same effective maturity to h…

No, bond ladders are not strictly better than a bond fund. In theory, they are equivalent. In a bond fund, you simply see your loss on rising interest rates more directly. Scenario 1 (holding bonds to maturity, i.e. bond ladder): Let's imagine you invest in a $100 1yr bond at a 2% rate. You will be paid $102 in a year's time. Immediately after you buy the bond, the rate goes to 3%. You are locked into the bond, so yo…

In theory that's true if you hold the fund forever but take the example of VGSH from another comment thread. If you bought that fund exactly 1 year ago and sold today you would have realized a return of less than 2% because while the yield is currently about 2.5% the price decrease over that time was about 1.5%. Your return would have been less than buying a single treasury yielding 2% a year ago and letting it mature.

Re: Building a Treasury Bond Ladder

#40

This is something I've always wondered: Are treasury bond ladders strictly better than an equivalent treasury bond fund (say VFITX), because the interest rate risk can cause the bond fund to lose value while the treasury bond ladder is guaranteed to not lose value if held to maturation? Or is there some finance black magic that causes treasury bond ladders and treasury bond funds with the same effective maturity to h…

When you buy the bonds directly, you're choosing an explicit exit date and you know exactly what your return will be. When you buy a bond fund, your principal is going to be reinvested, so there's a risk of interest rates going up right before you sell. Some firms offer target maturity bond funds which will is the best of both worlds.

> Some firms offer target maturity bond funds which will is the best of both worlds.

These are great for corporate bonds. Check out iShares iBonds if you want to include corporate bonds in your portfolio without building a ladder or taking on interest rate risk.

Post reply on HN