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Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

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31–40 of 55 posts

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#31
post #25

Tangent: I always thought state sanctioned lotteries were highly immoral. Sure, they want the tax revenue, but poor people are disproportionately the victims of what feels like fraud. The people believe that have a chance at winning what they most certainly do not. It's like reverse welfare- taxing the poor and uneducated for the benefit of the masses.

Tangent:

Not at all. In fact, I wrote this up because of a conversation I had a while back with a man buying a lottery ticket at the gas station. I was talking with him about how bad the odds were, and he fully admitted that he was getting terrible odds on that dollar.

But he figured that on the one in a million chance that he hit the jackpot, even if he only saw a quarter of that amount he could actually get out of debt and start making the power of compound interest work for him instead of against him, and after enough time with that money in the bank, the scales would tip in favor of spending the dollar on the lottery ticket.

Now, I don't think that argument really holds water, and I told him so (for several reasons, even apart from my skepticism that he'd actually put any cash he won into a properly managed account without spending a huge chunk of it first; the odds at the lottery are so hideous and the doubling time for a quarter million that you're also drawing money out of to live off of is very long, so it would be tough to make those numbers work out), but it got me started thinking about whether there might actually be situations where a losing gamble could be worthwhile, depending on the current situation of indebtedness.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#32
post #19

"Let's assume for the moment that Mary has no safety net; there are no friends she can ask to float her a loan, no family members that she can reach out to, etc." But this is almost always a false assumption. It would be better to borrow money to pay the fee in time. Can anyone think of a case where it actually would be better to gamble (at expected loss) than borrow money?

Maybe her friends are sick of watching her gamble her last few dollars away whenever there is an emergency.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#33

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

The catch here that the author was trying to tease out is that marginal utility is not always a smooth curve. Sometimes it is a step function, which changes the rules around the step.

Tax brackets are another classic example. Sometimes you get much more by being paid a little less.

Edit: The tax thing was a brain glitch and not true IRL. Check Matt's comment below. There may be true life examples where you come out ahead but they are likely to be scholarships or insurance policies or something with similar hard cutoffs that form step functions.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#34
post #25

Tangent: I always thought state sanctioned lotteries were highly immoral. Sure, they want the tax revenue, but poor people are disproportionately the victims of what feels like fraud. The people believe that have a chance at winning what they most certainly do not. It's like reverse welfare- taxing the poor and uneducated for the benefit of the masses.

Tangent: Not at all. In fact, I wrote this up because of a conversation I had a while back with a man buying a lottery ticket at the gas station. I was talking with him about how bad the odds were, and he fully admitted that he was getting terrible odds on that dollar. But he figured that on the one in a million chance that he hit the jackpot, even if he only saw a quarter of that amount he could actually get out of…

I like to pickup lotto tickets occasionally; it's basically a small fee to spend the week daydreaming about what you'd do with a sudden influx of money you didn't have to do any work to get. If I win back the cost of the ticket on a minimal prize I consider myself to have won.

Gambling where you get the results quickly (pretty much anything at a casino) has no appeal for me though, I see that as simply destroying money.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#35

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

The catch here that the author was trying to tease out is that marginal utility is not always a smooth curve. Sometimes it is a step function, which changes the rules around the step. Tax brackets are another classic example. Sometimes you get much more by being paid a little less. Edit: The tax thing was a brain glitch and not true IRL. Check Matt's comment below. There may be true life examples where you come out a…

No you don't. Earning more never causes you to take hom eless after taxes (at least in any country I know of). That's a common fallacy about them amongst people who don't understand the tax code.

Tax rates are marginal. So for instance if the tax rate was 20% up to $100k, then 30% afterward, you'd pay 20% on your first $100k, then 30% from $100,001 and up.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#36

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. I question this because you're already in the red: do nothing, and you'll be left with $130 in the bank but $250+$100=$350 in liabilities that eventually have to be paid, so you're at -$220 by default (even if you've still got $130 in your pocket, that's not really your money; as I commented el…

No, I'm pretty sure declining marginal utility applies more when you're in debt, not less, because interest rates on loans compound. Someone who owes credit cards $150 is going to be FAR more in debt, as a percentage of earnings, after a year than someone who owes $50.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#37

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

As for 1, the whole article is arguing a case where that is not true. They are illustrating a case where Mary's $130 is not worth much of anything: it doesn't pay half of her $250 liability and get her out of half of the downside. It's useless. But doubled, it has some utility. Granted it's an oversimplification, because that $130 could be used for something, and yes, #2 and #3 are probably better. (Though with fees…

It's not useless. It still pays for groceries, gas, etc. It's still $130 less she needs to put on credit cards for whatever.

In the real world, where you're never faced with two simple options like retire on $10k or start a business for $50k, money's marginal utility is effectively always diminishing.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#38
post #9

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

All that you say is practical and true but it seems in this contrived example, the imminent deadline with a disproportionate-to-the-time-value-of-money late fee means that liquidity now , in the winning scenario, has an extra utility -- as if it had increasing marginal utility.

It doesn't though, because you're not considering the rest of life. Whether or not this person pays the BMV, they still have to buy groceries, pay off credit cards. That $130 is not useless at all.

The most likely result of gambling is that they will still have to pay the BMV bill plus now have to recoup $130 (which is hard for them to come by) to pay other bills.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#39
post #21

I sure hope nobody reads this and is fooled by it. It's terrible, terrible advice for three reasons. 1. Money has a declining marginal utility. Winning that $130 isn't nearly as positive as losing it would have been negative. The author neglects to mention what happens the other 53% of the time when someone with mounting bills loses the last money they had. Debt spiral is usually the result. Even if the odds were 50/…

Is that a safer bet than blackjack, or are you defining blackjack as "a game of skill"? (I know it's a smaller house edge than roulette by some way, but not too familiar with craps)

Don't pass is a much safer bet if your goal is to bet once and double your money. Blackjack can have a positive expectation (craps cannot, absent some unusual promotion) but that requires much skill. Even with knowledge of basic strategy though, which can get the house edge very low (assuming rules that favor players, like what you'd find on the Vegas Strip) it's not a good all-in wager. A significant amount of the EV from blackjack comes from doubling down and splitting, which require you to put up extra money, so if you're playing it all-in, you're much more likely to go bust than at roulette or either line bet in craps.

Also some of the EV comes from blackjacks (typically paying 3:2) so there is some chance you'll end up with more money than you need. You could walk out with $325. Again since marginal utility is diminishing the extra risk is bad.

Re: Poor People Should Probably Gamble More

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The catch here that the author was trying to tease out is that marginal utility is not always a smooth curve. Sometimes it is a step function, which changes the rules around the step. Tax brackets are another classic example. Sometimes you get much more by being paid a little less. Edit: The tax thing was a brain glitch and not true IRL. Check Matt's comment below. There may be true life examples where you come out a…

No you don't. Earning more never causes you to take hom eless after taxes (at least in any country I know of). That's a common fallacy about them amongst people who don't understand the tax code. Tax rates are marginal. So for instance if the tax rate was 20% up to $100k, then 30% afterward, you'd pay 20% on your first $100k, then 30% from $100,001 and up.

Hmm. You are right. All of the examples I was taught with used fictional examples of magical taxes. I though surely there must be somewhere... but no, just a clever fiction, repeated ad absurdum to make word problems for 5th graders and then glossed over by time until I took it for reality. Ouch. Harder still because with a moments reflection I should have seen its absurdity(1).

But the step function thing was the point, not the taxes. I'll put in an edit and get that last bit ignored.

(1) Be careful what you take as truth when young and don't rethink later.

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