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Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

nytimes.com

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Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#41
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try training a classifier that can detect a person holding weapon aiming to kill someone vs a person not. Make it a 99.9999% accuracy classfier under different weather conditions. Now make one for night vision images. Even seemingly straighforward classification problems can be hard. Not to mention the vast array of other problems out there.

Such a thing doesn’t exist and it doesn’t need to, because humans have much lower accuracy than that. You don’t need to run faster than the bear, you need to run faster than the other guy, and that’s not hard to do if you pick the right task.

^ everybody remember this line for when it's given in response to an angry Congressman.

I imagine another line will be "it's marginally better than statistical human shooting, according to three studies!"

And then in the 'big house' people will refer to you as "Butterstats" or something. Because you were screaming "marginally better" the first night they left you in your cell.

Yo, butter stats, how's your appeal going?

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#43
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

"kinetic energy" is such a euphemism for killing people. I think a lot of people just have a problem with the military deciding who is innocent and who isn't and killing people of other countries without a declaration of war & without a trial.

Let's imagine a future where fully autonomous weapons exist. Advanced AI is driving them, and technological advances have enabled the weapons to have better sight (wide spectrum sensors), better range and faster reaction time than humans. They can go where humans can't and endure in environments where humans can't live even for a couple of minutes. Perhaps initially the weapons are simple, kind of like the "sword" from Second Variety (P. K. Dick), using radio emitters to identify friend from foe. They would also need a power supply, and because you can't put an advanced brain of huge computing power on a small platform (laws of physics still apply), the "brain" would be located somewhere shielded, deep underground, perhaps near a volcano to use the thermal energy, but also near water, because of cooling requirements. The brain would use a large capacity datalink to communicate with the weapons. Humans are still in the loop, of course, because the adversary is unfortunately quite adaptable and you need programmers to change the software as battle requirements demand. However, humans have this pesky thing called conscience, and sooner or later, if you make them fight, they will refuse to pull the trigger. So they need to be removed as far as possible from the decision to kill, left to the AI. So a team (quite large in fact) of programmers are working on small, disparate features (image recogniton, data communication, weapons delivery) but they never quite see the big picture themselves. Since what they do is quite important, they are well paid and enjoy a nice lifestyle. There are of course downsides. Refusing to do the work anymore or even talking about it could bring repercussions. So the best strategy is to keep quiet and mind your own business paycheck to paycheck. Meanwhile, old school soldiers become obsolete and the AI does all the messy work.

Sounds like fiction? Perhaps it is.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#45
I'm from EU, and I worked for a short time in the defense sector. For risk management purpose, I understand that all countries must develop its defense, "just in case".

However, given the atrocities commited in the past, I hope people will consider that technology development doesn't have to be lead by military.

If we had only one thing to keep from the history, it would be the memory of the mass destruction and pain that humans suffered while being controlled by an elite.

War is a form of competition. Surely we can compete with each other without involving bombs and explosives, so let work towards a world without suffering (what a challenge!)

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#46
I wonder if there's anything better than some good old fashioned war and murder to bring humans together to solve hard problems in a coordinated fashion, the Manhattan project springs to mind. Maybe military AI will be the next Manhattan project.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#47

There would be no Silicon Valley without the military industrial complex. Period. But I think there are problems with getting too close to the Pentagon and then trying to operate internationally as a purported neutral information platform.

While I mostly agree with you on a historical basis, I don't agree with you on a theoretical basis. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. The military invented a lot of things "first", or at least provided the use-case and funding for a lot of things. But that doesn't necessarily and always mean that people couldn't have invented something without military funding and uses in mind. For example, the military probably invented th…

The practical aspects of modern computing were to a large extent born from US defence funding. Starting from the theoretical roots: Von Neumann architecture [0] and various defence projects including ARPA[1].

"But that doesn't necessarily and always mean that people couldn't have invented something without military funding and uses in mind."

Sure, it doesn't. But funding and large number of end users combined with price-inelastic demand for your product enable product development and field testing like no other scenario does.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Draft_of_a_Report_on_the...

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Dream-Machine-Licklider-Revolution-Co...

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#48

Is it just me? Or I'm just really excited that the war of "people" is gonna be over and there will be a war of "AI" just like on Reel Steel.

I suspect more likely a rich nation's metal with fleshbag maintainers and overseers, against a poorer nation's people.

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#49
post #3

Silicon Valley doesn’t have to help. At this point a regular nerd like me can do AI in my basement as long as the Pentagon provides a labeled dataset. Data is the hard part, but Pentagon can handle it: just have a bunch of soldiers label stuff.

Where's the AI that labels stuff?

Re: Artificial Intelligence Is Now a Pentagon Priority. Will Silicon Valley Help?

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I mostly agree with you on a historical basis, I don't agree with you on a theoretical basis. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. The military invented a lot of things "first", or at least provided the use-case and funding for a lot of things. But that doesn't necessarily and always mean that people couldn't have invented something without military funding and uses in mind. For example, the military probably invented th…

The problem with your comparison is that IT took tens of years of investment before it produced anything truly useful. It is very hard to imagine that research being funded for years and years without financial return by anything other than a state-level actor. And in most capitalist democracies, especially in the US, the only politically-viable way for the state to massively invest in an endeavor is to do so through…

I'm not so sure. Mechanical calculators were profitable, and one those were good enough the jump to the first programmable computer [1] was fairly small and would have happened even without Nazi funding. That computer was used for German aviation research, so it's likely it would have been bought by other research institutes. From there you have a fairly straight forward path of incremental improvements that open up new markets, until we arrive where we are now.

But I will agree that the transition to silicon would have taken another decade without the space race.

1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z3_(computer)

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