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Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

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21–30 of 56 posts

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#21
post #15

1% of capital every year is crazy money. If the fund is really that good, they'll take x% of the profits and not charge a fee on capital. You take capital because you're not really that good, and you don't know (like basically everyone else) what's going to happen. Funds know they can't reliably beat the market, and thus don't offer such structures. I want a ratcheting fee structure. No capital fees, and no fee if th…

If the fund is really good, they take 2% of the capital and 20% of the profits... (Actually if the fund is really good it's closed to outside investors, so it doesn't really matter.) But of course if a fund is really good it's not just a portfolio of 20 hedge-fund darlings rebalanced quarterly.

I don't know how do they select the 20 names from hedge fund filings (looking only at their long positions, as they don't disclose short positions), but it seems that diversification is not one of the criteria. Virtually all of them are tech (IT/Telecom).

The 0-20% short (using inverse ETFs! [1]) is inactive, so no hedge at all currently on this overexposed portfolio. If (when) there is a large correction it may not be enough to ensure the loses are lower than for the market even assuming that they do it in time (surely it worked well in the backtests).

But hey, it's just 1% and runs (only) on your iPhone!

[1] They track the inverse performance well each day but can diverge over longer periods and have other risks that make them not-so-good as hedges. But anyway is just 20% of the long exposure...

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#22
Seems like a classic risk vs return scenario. If the return is that much higher than the S&P 500, then the risk associated with it will also be higher. I think the risk vs return is better balanced when you put your money in an ETF in Vanguard especially since there low fees and "choices" for particular markets.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#23
post #2

This looks very interesting. Has anyone here used it yet? And does hedging really work with such low numbers? I thought the point of hedging was being able to spread the risk across lots of large investments. Can you really spread enough with only $1000?

Seems to me that it simply buys 20 stocks plus the inverse S&P ETF (SH).

Their strategy looks highly overfitted in terms of establishing the short position.

It’s easy to beat the market in a bull market (just buy momentum stocks or use leverage). It’s hard to determine when the bull market ends and the bear market begins however, which is what’s required if the strategy can truly beat the index long term.

13F filings that they use are all public knowledge that has been priced in. Furthermore funds aren’t required to provide information on their short positions and derivatives, so I struggle to imagine that they can do anything beyond “these are top 20 institutionally owned stocks” weighted by past performance of those institutions, which in itself is not an indicator of future returns.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#24
Both the article and https://www.titanvest.com/performance/ cite performance relative to S&P 500. If you expand out disclosures it says "Figures cited for 2017 and since 2004 represent backtested performance of a hypothetical account using Titan’s investment process, not an actual amount." It's trivial to overfit a backtest to get whatever results you want. For a startup whose objective is to "enable you to become a better investor" they might want to start by explaining why you shouldn't take their performance page seriously.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#25
I don't see a clear value proposition here.

As others have mentioned, ~95% of people should only invest in index funds. They are wasting their money if they actively manage it or put it into a managed fund.

The value add of a hedge fund is its sophisticated research. Hedge funds have analysts who are looking at satellite images showing the number of cars in parking lots to determine whether sales at Best Buy are up this year, PhDs creating ML models that incorporate behavioral finance, that sort of thing.

It seems like Titan operates in a space directly between these two business models - higher fees without the sophisticated research. Its return over the past year is promising, but you can't really evaluate the performance over such a short time frame. I'm very skeptical, but hoping to be proved wrong.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#26
post #21
post #15

1% of capital every year is crazy money. If the fund is really that good, they'll take x% of the profits and not charge a fee on capital. You take capital because you're not really that good, and you don't know (like basically everyone else) what's going to happen. Funds know they can't reliably beat the market, and thus don't offer such structures. I want a ratcheting fee structure. No capital fees, and no fee if th…

If the fund is really good, they take 2% of the capital and 20% of the profits... (Actually if the fund is really good it's closed to outside investors, so it doesn't really matter.) But of course if a fund is really good it's not just a portfolio of 20 hedge-fund darlings rebalanced quarterly. I don't know how do they select the 20 names from hedge fund filings (looking only at their long positions, as they don't di…

^This. It feels like some cheap ML recreating a fund-of-funds with some shorts that limit exposure.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#27
>What Robinhood did to democratize buying individual stocks, Titan wants to do for investing in a managed portfolio.

huh? RH's success comes from letting people play wall street hot shot trader for free. "OMG did you hear what Musk just said?".

If they think they're capturing the same kind of audience attention with a managed portfolio then they legit don't know which way is up.

>Titan picks the top 20 stocks based on data mined from the most prestigious hedge funds

That's index ETF thinking. The real hedge funds invest in opportunities that aren't even listed. You don't make hedge fund type return without hardcore research & hardcore risk taking on the basis of that research.

The whole "hedge fund" thing might make for decent initial PR but I predict this will backfire when people don't get the immediate visceral return they expected. Acorn's "Invest & grow" type PR slogans are better if you are going for managed because it'll align with the return.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#28
post #27

>What Robinhood did to democratize buying individual stocks, Titan wants to do for investing in a managed portfolio. huh? RH's success comes from letting people play wall street hot shot trader for free. "OMG did you hear what Musk just said?". If they think they're capturing the same kind of audience attention with a managed portfolio then they legit don't know which way is up. >Titan picks the top 20 stocks based o…

reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets gives a good idea of where Robinhood's success is coming from.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#29
post #7
post #3

The average person is much better off putting their money in a whole market index fund that charges a tenth of a percent (or less) rather than a managed fund that charges 1%. The managed fund is unlikely to outperform the index fund in the long term.

I disagree. It's very unclear what strategy will work over the next 20 years. Many people are bullish on index funds because research has shown that they outperformed managed funds over the past 10-20 years. It doesn't mean they'll outperform over the next 20 years. Past results are no indication of future results.

i second this opinion. past results are not indicative of future ones.

The question is if you dont follow the passive ETF/index strategy what do you do? In that regard i suppose its better than doing nothing.

Re: Titan launches its mobile ‘not a hedge fund’

#30
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. It's very unclear what strategy will work over the next 20 years. Many people are bullish on index funds because research has shown that they outperformed managed funds over the past 10-20 years. It doesn't mean they'll outperform over the next 20 years. Past results are no indication of future results.

> Many people are bullish on index funds because research has shown that they outperformed managed funds over the past 10-20 years. According to John Bogle, this has been true for over 100 years. His analysis goes back to 1900.

You can't backtest a fund such as VTI. The issue is that these analysis don't take into factors such as volume. I'm sure if someone backtested $100MM investment in Bitcoin starting from 2010, the results would be spectacular, but we all know that buying pressure would've caused Bitcoin to skyrocket and the returns would be less than the backtested results.

I personally tell people to invest in index funds if they don't understand investing, but it doesn't mean it will do better than other options. Index funds are only a recent phenomenon.

The biggest issue with index funds at the moment is "group-think". If everyone in America is investing via index funds then when people need money, those same index funds will fall sharply. There is a valid line of thinking where one should avoid stocks with heavy exposure to index funds because those stocks will have the best returns during an equities downturn.

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/08/31/today-in-market-...

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