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After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

nytimes.com

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Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#41

Post by techopoly »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

To be honest with bitcoin currently still over $6,000 there is a lot more pain to come.

I'm with you there -- I just don't see the actual value as being worth that much. Stocks, bonds, commodities, government-backed currencies, they all have clear value other than their speculative value assigned by the current craze of the time. Bitcoin of course has some value, but $6,000 for one unit is certainly inflated. And what's worse, its value fluctuations make it unlikely to be used for what it was designed for: paying for things.

At least with a stock you are a part owner of the company, and you get the rights inherent with that.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#42

Post by oleganza »

cm2187 wrote: post #16

To be honest with bitcoin currently still over $6,000 there is a lot more pain to come.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end.

2011: $1->$30->$3.

2012: $5->$15->$10.

2013: $10->$270->$80.

2013-14: $100->$1100->$250.

2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#43

Post by fru2013 »

oleganza wrote: post #42
cm2187 wrote: post #16

To be honest with bitcoin currently still over $6,000 there is a lot more pain to come.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#45

Post by tanilama »

samspenc wrote: post #30
raverbashing wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least it was 23k not 100k

Unfortunately, from later in the article: > Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

That is just gambling...They are at their own risk.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#46

Post by guildenstern »

oleganza wrote: post #42
cm2187 wrote: post #16

To be honest with bitcoin currently still over $6,000 there is a lot more pain to come.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

Consider how much money had to enter the market for the price to reach $1000.

Consider how much money had to enter the market for the price to reach $20,000.

Now consider how much money will have to enter the market, after everyday “normal” people from outside of tech have lost hundreds or thousands, for the price to reach $250,000.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#47

Post by rootusrootus »

oleganza wrote: post #42
cm2187 wrote: post #16

To be honest with bitcoin currently still over $6,000 there is a lot more pain to come.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

That looks like skillful manipulation to me. There is an important difference with the most recent bubble -- now bitcoin is a household name. Where is the next pool of gamblers coming from?

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#48

Post by freeflight »

keymone wrote: post #35
samspenc wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, from later in the article: > Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

This is crazy. People don’t go from saving up 90k in their 40s to sinking all that into a gigantic lottery. Do they?

It seems that with enough hype, they actually do.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#49

Post by abakker »

keymone wrote: post #35
samspenc wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, from later in the article: > Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000, into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.

This is crazy. People don’t go from saving up 90k in their 40s to sinking all that into a gigantic lottery. Do they?

They do this when their 90k in savings isn't going to cut it in their retirement, or sending their kid to college. Desperation and duress cause people to make poor decisions, in finance, health, jobs, marriage.

It is this fact especially where "advice" doesn't really help. I have not seen that coping with need, whether perceived or real is something people tend to do rationally. And, unfortunately, once you are in that situation, telling real vs perceived needs apart becomes just as difficult.

my opinion/theory is that our social ties and cultural norms are meant to allow us as a group to help individuals out of this, but that our current culture has subverted this norm. It seems self-evidently true that it is better attempt to meet the needs of individuals before the costs of their poorly judged actions force us to deal with the ramifications.

Edit: double negative removed.

Re: After the Bitcoin Boom: Hard Lessons for Cryptocurrency Investors

#50

Post by 21 »

fru2013 wrote: post #43
oleganza wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has been through at least 3-4 major "run ups" already. Those who do not look at the log chart think that "this time it's different" and Bitcoin will surely die for good. Later it'll crash from $250K to $50K and then it will certainly be the end. 2011: $1->$30->$3. 2012: $5->$15->$10. 2013: $10->$270->$80. 2013-14: $100->$1100->$250. 2016-2018: $500->$20000->$6000 (so far).

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Then why do people say "invest in the stock market for the long run by buying an index fund?"
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