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Who needs democracy when you have data?

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Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#81

Post by wilsonnb3 »

_bxg1 wrote: post #79
wilsonnb3 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your base assumption seems to be that world influence has a positive linear relationship with population size, which is not something that I agree with. I don't necessarily disagree with it either, though. I think the situation is far more complex to boil down to just that.

I would amend that to say the potential for world economic influence has a positive linear relationship with population size. Clearly population alone doesn't do it, since China doesn't yet have the economic weight of the U.S., but they have a much greater capacity for growth.

That I generally agree with!

It is possible that they are actually so large that it will start working against them. Like an animal so large that it can't eat enough food to stay alive.

I am certainly looking forward to seeing what happens, though. It's a very interesting time to be alive and I hope that China does keep growing enough to provide all of it's citizens with a quality life. They've made great strides in the past half century, in spite of their current government's many flaws.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#83

Post by _bxg1 »

wilsonnb3 wrote: post #81
_bxg1 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would amend that to say the potential for world economic influence has a positive linear relationship with population size. Clearly population alone doesn't do it, since China doesn't yet have the economic weight of the U.S., but they have a much greater capacity for growth.

That I generally agree with! It is possible that they are actually so large that it will start working against them. Like an animal so large that it can't eat enough food to stay alive. I am certainly looking forward to seeing what happens, though. It's a very interesting time to be alive and I hope that China does keep growing enough to provide all of it's citizens with a quality life. They've made great strides in…

"I hope that China does keep growing enough to provide all of it's citizens with a quality life"

I would agree if it weren't for the ideology that would come with it. My dream scenario is that their government's corruption will increase until it collapses like the Soviet Union, leaving behind a society that's actually much better equipped than the soviets to hit the ground running in a liberal democracy (given the country's partial embrace of capitalism), and then they'll grow enough to provide all their citizens with a quality life. But that series of events seems unlikely.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#84

Post by CaptSpify »

nathell wrote: post #36
SamuelAdams wrote: post #33

The northern city of Rongcheng, for example, assigns a score to each of its 740,000 residents, Foreign Policy reported. Everyone begins with 1,000 points. If you donate to a charity or win a government award, you gain points; if you violate a traffic law, such as by driving drunk or speeding through a crosswalk, you lose points. People with good scores can earn discounts on winter heating supplies or get better terms…

$deity forbid, no. The problem with this is that once you get beneath a certain threshold, you find yourself on a self-reinforcing spiral which it's hard to get yourself out of; a spiral not unlike that of homelessness. Watch Black Mirror's S03E01 for a glimpse of where this can take us.

Additionally, what someone considers positive, someone else may consider negative. If I attend an anti-gun rally, who gets to decide if that makes me gain, or lose points?

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#85

Post by nixarian »

dsr_ wrote: post #55
PakG1 wrote: post #39

Democracy is good because it basically allows for a peaceful revolution if a populace is dissatisfied with its government. Democracy is bad because the government risks enduring endless bickering and nothing getting done. Etc, etc. I don't know what the right answer is anymore.

More to the point, democracy is good if and only if it allows for peaceful transitions of government.

Democracy is good only if the population is sufficiently educated and informed. Americans are, by and large, poorly educated and ill informed.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#86

Post by pnathan »

lainga wrote: post #51
pnathan wrote: post #23

An interesting perspective. I would like to understand more in depth the history in China of how influence has been gained and how ordinary people were able to affect the local politics. In the English/Germanic tradition, we might have a parley-ment, or a town hall, or a Thing. I wonder what the comparable system in China was? Does anyone have some in depth knowledge here? (happy to rtfm if one is available)

All governments need some method of contact with the governed to assert their legitimacy. It's telling that in North Europe we had parliaments - places to speak your mind - because speaking your mind was how we did that. Oratory was, and is, seen as a necessary quality in a good governor, since at least ancient Greece and certainly since the days of Rome. In China, on the other hand, there is no major oratory traditi…

> The way Chinese government contacted the people was by being everywhere and nowhere - omnipresent, through the imperial civil service, and yet unseen.

What does everywhere and nowhere, mean, specifically, in the context of a society without telephony and electronic surveillance? What were the means for a local official to adapt policy in the face of pressures and demands from his local stakeholders? How were these pressures transmitted?

Again, happy to read scholarly works well versed in the way of Chinese governing here, this is probably "Basic Chinese government history 101" stuff. :)

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#87

Post by gojomo »

_bxg1 wrote: post #76
dqpb wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be an interesting case study to see what they do with the Uyghurs. What can a government do to an enemy population when they've sequenced the DNA of every individual in that population?

I don't know if "interesting" is the word I would use; what they're doing to that subpopulation is approaching Nazi Germany-level stuff. However, the human rights violations could prompt the global community to take action like they did in WW2, which could honestly be one of the better outcomes of all this.

WW2 wasn't an action of "the global community" against "human rights violations". There was imperial/economic competition, escalating through trade restrictions to military actions and invasions, becoming all-out war.

Many of the most egregious human rights violations weren't understood until after the war, and reached their worst practices under wartime pressures.

And against this, you're hoping for "action like they did in WW2, which could honestly be one of the better outcomes of all this"?!?

No, WW3 would be bad.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#88

Post by jandrewrogers »

_bxg1 wrote: post #79
wilsonnb3 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your base assumption seems to be that world influence has a positive linear relationship with population size, which is not something that I agree with. I don't necessarily disagree with it either, though. I think the situation is far more complex to boil down to just that.

I would amend that to say the potential for world economic influence has a positive linear relationship with population size. Clearly population alone doesn't do it, since China doesn't yet have the economic weight of the U.S., but they have a much greater capacity for growth.

On the other hand, if one believes automation and AI is competing with and encroaching on the economic productivity of humans, then having a larger population can potentially be an economic liability.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#89

Post by _bxg1 »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #88
_bxg1 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would amend that to say the potential for world economic influence has a positive linear relationship with population size. Clearly population alone doesn't do it, since China doesn't yet have the economic weight of the U.S., but they have a much greater capacity for growth.

On the other hand, if one believes automation and AI is competing with and encroaching on the economic productivity of humans, then having a larger population can potentially be an economic liability.

Hmm. Interesting take. I hadn't thought about that.

Re: Who needs democracy when you have data?

#90

Post by stcredzero »

_bxg1 wrote: post #56

There is nothing in the world right now that I fear more than the creep of Chinese surveillance/authoritarian practices into the rest of the world's society. They are a rapidly growing superpower, and while I hold no fantasies of U.S. supremacy, this specific trend in the use of digital technology terrifies me. There won't be a war, by the way. I honestly think we're past the point as a species where superpowers duke…

There won't be a war, by the way. I honestly think we're past the point as a species where superpowers duke it out in such a literal fashion.

Even when physical violence never occurs, it still fits into the geopolitical equation. So long as Taiwan continues to exist in a state of defacto independence, the US can act as a distant, only somewhat interested hegemon in opposition to local Chinese hegemony. Geography still dictates military strategy and power. So long as Taiwan remains a place to potentially base aircraft and ships, China can't credibly threaten and control the South China Sea. Taiwan itself is situated in relatively rough seas and has a rugged coastline which drastically restricts opportunities for a seaborne invasion. Invading Taiwan will take a supreme effort, smaller but in the same order of magnitude of the effort required to mount the D-Day invasion.

China's influence and dominance will happen through the private sector, ironically.

Thankfully.

They have their own versions of Google and Facebook: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.

I hope that the Great Firewall will be like the South China Sea. China may be influential, but the wells of culture run deep. Therefore the impetus for Japan and Korea to remain independent also runs deep and will remain strong.

Stratfor's "China's Geographic Challenge" --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8uWoBtCkg8

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