Is the primary value proposition of Augur (at least from a USA perspective) regulation evasion, and the ability to participate in betting markets at scale? Supposing the USA legalized betting markets, would Augur still have a value proposition over legal (but centralized) betting markets?
Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
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Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#42Is the primary value proposition of Augur (at least from a USA perspective) regulation evasion, and the ability to participate in betting markets at scale? Supposing the USA legalized betting markets, would Augur still have a value proposition over legal (but centralized) betting markets?
Given online betting is legal in lots of places, you can answer that question by seeing if people from outside of the USA will use Augur.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#43Augur is down to https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/08/20/dapps-userbase-dr...
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#44Arbitrage opp: Write a program to take the opposite side of any bet that you can hedge in the public market. For example: if someone bets against Tesla, and you can take the opposite side, but (more) cheaply offset your risk in the option market.
The only problem is you don't know what the value of ETH will be 2-3 days in the future.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#45Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…
What's the difference between using prediction markets for politics and having a direct democracy?
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#46"Reporting - once an event has happened, Reporters are members of the network who verify the outcome. They place a bet on how much they believe their reporting is true. If they’re right they get a share of the pot. If they are wrong - or are at odds with how other reporters have documented the outcome - they are penalized and lose REP."
Isn't the reporting part qui susceptible to a sybil attack?
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#47The main problem on Augur right now is volume. Only a few markets have orders to trade against, and it seems like the cryptocurrency markets are the most actively used. I tried to use the platform to make a small bet against Tesla, but obviously you need someone to take the other side of the bet. Still a very cool platform. A lot of people use predictions.global to get a birds eye view of the markets. https://predict…
> but obviously you need someone to take the other side of the bet.
Wasn't obvious to me. Can't a prediction stand alone, as in real life?
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#48"Reporting - once an event has happened, Reporters are members of the network who verify the outcome. They place a bet on how much they believe their reporting is true. If they’re right they get a share of the pot. If they are wrong - or are at odds with how other reporters have documented the outcome - they are penalized and lose REP." Isn't the reporting part qui susceptible to a sybil attack?
Reporting weight is based on amount of REP held, not just anyone can report and not all contributions are equal.
https://www.augur.net/whitepaper.pdf covers the security assumptions pretty well.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#49Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…
What's the difference between using prediction markets for politics and having a direct democracy?
not sure how they are comparable to begin with, since one is people guessing an outcome, and another is people voting for an outcome. in the first, you are trying to guess how everyone will vote, in the second you say what you want. sorry if thats not what you are actually asking.
Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace
#50The main problem on Augur right now is volume. Only a few markets have orders to trade against, and it seems like the cryptocurrency markets are the most actively used. I tried to use the platform to make a small bet against Tesla, but obviously you need someone to take the other side of the bet. Still a very cool platform. A lot of people use predictions.global to get a birds eye view of the markets. https://predict…
> but obviously you need someone to take the other side of the bet. Wasn't obvious to me. Can't a prediction stand alone, as in real life?
Not if you don't have skin in the game. The associated risk and payout equilibrium becomes the prediction.
Without skin in the game you end up with manipulated values.