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Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

litepaper.com

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Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#21

Post by busterarm »

notahacker wrote: post #20
busterarm wrote: post #2

Hard pass. Blockchain and Gambling still don't really go together yet. Moreover, I wouldn't touch anything intersecting this space that doesn't have Rick Dudley directly involved. Not only does he have a 15 year headstart working on some of these problems, but he also owns patents on provably fair online gaming systems. The site acts like the main challenges are legal when really they're technical.

I'd say they're neither: they're marketing. The average gambler isn't that bothered about the actuarial unfairness of their bookmaker or casino, and the bookmakers don't make fortunes because their cut is particularly large but because they are very good at hooking people on making more bets, and having enough volume to lay a big bet. The one area where blockchain based gambling might offer a significant theoretical…

> When it comes to bets on the outside world, crypto-gambling is arguably a lot worse than a high street bookmaker as it involves a de facto side bet on (i) the value of the crypto asset not declining during the bet duration and (ii) the oracle being reliable. It's not like you can't get odds or participate in more obscure bets or prediction markets using regular currency on p2p platforms or even with high street bookmakers either, it's just they're relatively niche interests...

Very well stated!

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#23

Post by ericb »

busterarm wrote: post #11
ericb wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you actually looked at Augur? It is up and running and working well.

You'd think that based around the context of my statements that I'm not an unaware bystander and that I might already know something about Augur, what their tech is and who is involved in it. Guess not. In a very narrowly defined space, it is something that works, yes, but as always with tech in this space "there be dragons". As a side note, I stg that every "new thing" built on ethereum is just a chain of underpants…

> You'd think that based around the context of my statements that I'm not an unaware bystander and that I might already know something about Augur

When something is currently operating, just saying it can't work because of "technical obstacles" is bound to seem like a drive-by comment. The same with saying "there be dragons."

I'm genuinely interested--so can we enumerate some dragons? Can you elaborate?

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#24

Post by flyingfences »

blanderman wrote: post #3

"In the summer of 2018, assassination markets became popular among bettors. If those markets are seen to incentivise people to take illegal action, Augur could be shut down completely."

Coincidental timing with the first arc of the new season of Lupin III...

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#25

Post by ojr »

busterarm wrote: post #2

Hard pass. Blockchain and Gambling still don't really go together yet. Moreover, I wouldn't touch anything intersecting this space that doesn't have Rick Dudley directly involved. Not only does he have a 15 year headstart working on some of these problems, but he also owns patents on provably fair online gaming systems. The site acts like the main challenges are legal when really they're technical.

Online gambling sites like Bovada already have bitcoin deposits and withdrawals, your funds stays stable after a deposit, or you can deposit with credit card and get a check in the mail from Taiwan.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#26

Post by JackFr »

prepend wrote: post #16
wskinner wrote: post #4

> Settlement - once the reporting has been complete, and it’s verified by the community, the bettors who bought shares on the correct outcome are paid - as is the market creator. Can anyone comment on how settlement actually works? A persistent problem with new tokens is handwavy explanations of absolutely core features. With a human legal system, humans can argue over intent. When “code is law”, pure intentions alon…

Likewise, I was trying to figure this out. And haven’t yet. In most prediction markets the reason for centralization is as the market maker or arbiter. For example predictit.com will definitively say if some testified or not during the market term [0]. So arguments over what testifying means get handled fairly. In augur the community seems to determine this based on how much they spend to reconcile the transaction. S…

Yeah, so I read the white paper -- fairly closely at first, but as I got bogged down in the details of 'first public reporter' and the formula for the size of the 'dispute bond' and disputes etc., it became very clear that despite all of the thought and hard work that went into this, that the link between the real world and the reported outcome is reliant on trust and community norms.

And the more one thinks about it the more obvious it becomes. Two ways to think about it:

1) The initial market is betting on an outcome -- how is that different from the dispute resolution phase, which can also be reduced to betting on an outcome.

2) Imagine a purely imaginary event -- and read the whitepaper with that in mind. All of the the processes set up still function perfectly -- as designed. In fact there is no need of a real event. So if there is no need for a real event, why is there an impetus to report a real outcome even if there is a real event.

That isn't to say it can't work, but if it does it will be through trust and community norms, not Ethereum.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#27

Post by klenwell »

hedgew wrote: post #7

Augur will probably be used for betting but really it's a prediction market. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market Prediction markets are an interesting tool for determining the most likely answer or result for almost any question. Some economists hope that we could use prediction markets to make difficult political decisions. Many companies already use them internally. Sadly there's only one prediction mar…

Have you seen the Good Judgment Project, founded by Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting?

https://www.gjopen.com/

https://www.gjopen.com/questions/813-before-1-october-2018-w...

https://goodjudgment.com/superforecasting/index.php/2018/06/...

It's karma-driven rather than wager-driven but seems fairly active.

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#28

Post by drdeca »

blanderman wrote: post #3

"In the summer of 2018, assassination markets became popular among bettors. If those markets are seen to incentivise people to take illegal action, Augur could be shut down completely."

Not sure if this is still the case, but iirc it was at least at one point part of the plan to have the reporters be able to report "this is an unethical market due to things like assasination markets" instead of yes or no, and if sufficiently many reported in that way, they would not be penalized for doing so.

But I don't know if it ended up like that in the final version

Re: Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized betting marketplace

#29

Post by DennisP »

blanderman wrote: post #3

"In the summer of 2018, assassination markets became popular among bettors. If those markets are seen to incentivise people to take illegal action, Augur could be shut down completely."

I'm having a hard time seeing a way assassination markets are actually a good business model for assassins.

If the prediction is tightly bounded (e.g. "Mr. X will be killed on Sept. 3, 2018") then you warn the victim.

If the prediction is loosely bounded ("Mr. X will be killed within the next year") then the odds won't be nearly as good, since many non-assassins may bet in favor. The assassin will have to put up a larger bet for a given payoff. Having done that, the assassin wins even if a different assassin does the work, so there's a public goods problem among assassins, and they all have some incentive to stay home playing Call of Duty instead.

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