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End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

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Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#111

Post by andromedavision »

shard972 wrote: post #95
andromedavision wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Liberalism and the word liberty in and of itself no longer means anything concrete. Every side claims to defend it but in the midst of it all I'm reminded of the quote that those who give up a lottle liberty to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. All who profess it end up being tyrannical. I've disabused myself of the schpiel that is the concept of liberty. It means nothing today b…

> Liberalism and the word liberty in and of itself no longer means anything concrete It means a lot to those who can understand the liberalism is the underpinning ideology of the west post enlightenment. All you have to do is understand russia and china's rejections of liberalism to understand that liberalism isn't just some buzz word that pops up randomly on left/right politics. > I've disabused myself of the schpie…

> It would be a large increase in government intervention, but those like Alex Jones and his supporters would see that as a huge gain in liberty

I've got no cognitive dissonance on this issue and to me it doesn't matter which govt. takes over. The state is the state and you want less of it, never more.

> A liberal government does the complete opposite, it's authority in leadership comes from the people which are assumed to be independent sovereign agents.

Nope. No such thing as a liberal government. It is an oxymoron as far AFAIC. Government by its very definition requires that the people give up some freedoms and allow a degree(large or small) of state intervention. I want less of it. Only the judiciary & law enforcement - and even then, way less of it than we have now. Everything else people should do for themselves at absolute local levels or even better, at the familial level. The King was the original sin but I'll still take a monarchical govt. over a democratic govt. any day.

> As a reformed Anarcho-Capitalist

Why did you abandon ancap ideology? I get that it may not be plausible to attain it in its entirety, but I still view it as an ideal - something to aspire to and get as close as possible to. Ideals are good to have because they act as a north star of sorts.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#112

Post by dragonwriter »

andromedavision wrote: post #111
shard972 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Liberalism and the word liberty in and of itself no longer means anything concrete It means a lot to those who can understand the liberalism is the underpinning ideology of the west post enlightenment. All you have to do is understand russia and china's rejections of liberalism to understand that liberalism isn't just some buzz word that pops up randomly on left/right politics. > I've disabused myself of the schpie…

> It would be a large increase in government intervention, but those like Alex Jones and his supporters would see that as a huge gain in liberty I've got no cognitive dissonance on this issue and to me it doesn't matter which govt. takes over. The state is the state and you want less of it, never more. > A liberal government does the complete opposite, it's authority in leadership comes from the people which are assu…

> Only the judiciary & law enforcement

What is the purpose of the judiciary and law enforcement if there is no legislative power? If there are no laws for the former to apply and the later to enforce—which is the case if there is no authority to create law—then they are pure waste.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#113

Post by candiodari »

antouank wrote: post #37
sonnyblarney wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the world runs on patrongage, or 'clientism' as you call it. Most large corporations are like that and so are Western governments. 'Getting in the door' at an entry-level job in government or even in business ... there are rules here, and tech tends to be more 'skills based' as are startups. But after that you'd be surprised how many people have the jobs just because they think they deserve them. Clearly, an…

> Most of the world runs on patrongage, or 'clientism' as you call it. It's not black and white, for sure. I lived in Greece until my 27, I had the unfortunate idea to even invest and open a business in Greece, and then I left and worked in Germany and UK for the next 6 years as a software engineer. Yes, the difference is immense. Cannot emphasize it enough. I'd never go back if things remain as they are. You're welc…

I think you'll find "clientism" is a function of the unemployment rate. When people are desperate for jobs, clientism will rule. In the real immigrant regions of Rotterdam for example, there is near 100% clientism. By which I mean that every dishwasher is there because they're related, married or very close friends (rare) to the owner.

Not that it doesn't happen in The Hague in the big banks, it does, especially higher up. But once you get lower than director, there is very little of it left. There is essentially no unemployment among the educated Dutch population, and they would never do the clientism thing ... at least not for an entry level job. Where you really find it is when big companies outsource local functions, like cleaning the office, or buying large amounts of furnishings. When you look at the personal relationships between those businesses, that's where you go "wait a second ... I've seen that name before".

With 30% unemployment, of course you try to help your family with a job, especially if that's the only way to survive. And that pushes out everyone else at that level of unemployment, of course.

With 4% unemployment. How low is that ? Well, there are ~10% people with an iq In the Netherlands, half of such people are employed in private businesses. That's how low the unemployment rate is there at the moment.

So no, with that sort of competition for workers, there is very little clientism at the lower levels of companies.

But this has very little to do with cultural differences or attitude differences between the Netherlands and Greece. I'm sure they mattered for the first 2 months of the problem, those differences ... perhaps ... but not for very long. Under the same pressures, the Dutch would surely do the same as the Greek.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#114

Post by candiodari »

sgt101 wrote: post #50
ekianjo wrote: post #21

> turned Greece into a different country. They turned themselves into a different country by borrowing Euros at German market interest rates while their previous interest rates for borrowing were at 16% before they joined the Eurozone. They lived way above their means for more than 10 years, what did they expect for a country that has virtually no industry?

Most greek government debt before the crisis was generated in the preeurozone era, between 1984 and 1990 - ~40%->~90% gdp. This happened before the euro was created and before Greece joined. Private debt spiked in the Euro era - Banks ! This debt has been socialised by the aid packages, this would be fine if it was socialised across the eurozone, where the failure of supervision occurred and where the loot was stashe…

Exactly !

I don't understand why people insult the Greek so much in this thread. Yes, the Greek state wasn't very correct, but you can make many arguments, say for example that it behaves MUCH better than the Italian state. But ... Germany can't punish Italy the same way, that would have caused a crash.

Greece is a small player in the EU that got into trouble. Almost all small players got into trouble in the same period. Many big players got into trouble too (Italy and even France both had the same issue). Greece got destroyed, made an example of, because it was the first small player to face an acute cash problem (technically Italy was actually the first, but Italy can't be made an example of safely), the rest was saved ... Let's please just stop pretending there's anything just about this situation.

Also: Greece (nor the other small players) will not recover:

https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield

Greece's economy is "growing" at 1.7%. Interest on it's 10Y debt (that it can't pay now) is 4.3% ... It's total debt level is pretty much 185%. That means that, on average, for Greece to save itself, taxes need to rise by 1.85 * (4.3% - 1.7%), or about 5% per year.

5% per year tax rise. With an economy, in a huge global boom, growing at 1.7%.

So I'll just add to that : may God have mercy if there is even the mildest of recessions.

And the thing the whole of the EU is ignoring that the basic problems of Greece are all EU wide. Of course, they still have more of a runway, but total inability to pay for social security and pensions is not exactly a problem of Greece alone ... And the demographic disaster playing out in Europe is absurdly bad.

And despite the rhetoric coming out of Hungary, Europe as a whole already has net-negative immigration. All of Eastern Europe, not just Greece, is losing population at an absurd rate. Moldova went from 4 million people to ~2.6 registered people (there are reasons to suspect the real number is even lower than that). But despite all the complaining, immigration into Europe is drying up and will flip into net-emigration in a few years, unless something drastic changes. For "natives" there are absurd levels of emigration even in the richest of West-European countries. The Netherlands has been losing 1.2% per year of it's native Dutch for >10 years now, with the numbers slowly rising, currently just shy of 2% per year. When immigration dries up, which isn't too far away, that will be the net population growth in Europe. And there are 2 economic relationships that we can prove have held for thousands of years. Here's one: less people, less economy.

Countrysides emptying out of people is no longer a problem faced by inner Spain exclusively, it's clearly visible in Wales, in Westphalen, in the Ardens, in Friesland ... it's everywhere and while it can't yet be described as catastrophic there (in Spain, it is catastrophic), it's rapidly getting worse and I simply don't see a realistic option of living there and neither does anyone I know. That's anecdotal, I know, and I sure hope that means it's wrong. But I fear it's not.

The future is not bright for Europe. All of Europe will be Greek in something like 10-15 years.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#115

Post by andromedavision »

dragonwriter wrote: post #112
andromedavision wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would be a large increase in government intervention, but those like Alex Jones and his supporters would see that as a huge gain in liberty I've got no cognitive dissonance on this issue and to me it doesn't matter which govt. takes over. The state is the state and you want less of it, never more. > A liberal government does the complete opposite, it's authority in leadership comes from the people which are assu…

> Only the judiciary & law enforcement What is the purpose of the judiciary and law enforcement if there is no legislative power? If there are no laws for the former to apply and the later to enforce—which is the case if there is no authority to create law—then they are pure waste.

What's the purpose of having laws if they're going to change on the whims of the govt./legislature of the day?

The FUNDAMENTAL law should be immutable.

Write once and it never changes. No need for senators, mps and all those other useless positions that only consume from tax payers. If there are other nuances - because there'll be unforeseen occurrences and paradigm shifts like the advent of technology and its implications - then we rely on the judiciary and future similar occurrences rely on precedent to come to a judgement.

Also, arbitration can really solve some of these cases in free market environment where parties involved can agree on an arbitrator and their differences can be resolved.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#116

Post by akvadrako »

mpweiher wrote: post #87
akvadrako wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually you are correct - Greece's debt load is one of the lowest in Europe. The reason it looks high is propaganda; they are using an obsolete accounting method. The modern standard is IPSAS or equivalents which consider what matters - the market value of the debt. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/06/09/2161851/what-if-greec... http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=2321087

Err...so the debt is "low" because we are assuming it won't be repaid. Hmm...

It's because of low interest rates, much of it deferred. It's easier to pay off a 10 year loan of $2 @ 1% interest than $1 at 10% interest.

Re: End of Greek Aid Package as Country Faces Demographic Crisis

#117

Post by mpweiher »

akvadrako wrote: post #116
mpweiher wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Err...so the debt is "low" because we are assuming it won't be repaid. Hmm...

It's because of low interest rates, much of it deferred. It's easier to pay off a 10 year loan of $2 @ 1% interest than $1 at 10% interest.

And deferring the debt was part of the bailout package.
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