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Intangible investment behaves differently

gatesnotes.com

21–30 of 93 posts

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#21
1) The first two paragraphs about 'assumptions' are essentially false. There are no assumptions in supply and demand, it's not a dynamic equilibrium, it's a snapshot.

Yes - over time supplies tend to change due to demand, of course, but that's 'long run' stuff ... not in that chart. The author is kind of misinterpreting the chart.

2) It's not 'sunk cost' that's the issue, this is about 'fixed' vs. 'unit' cost. Software is all 'fixed' (i.e. setting up the production line) whereas most material things are mostly about 'unit' costs (i.e. the cost to make an item)

3) Software sales are a tiny fraction of the economy because almost nobody is selling software. People are selling 'services', basically products that 'do stuff using software'.

The 'key ingredient' is usually some type of business or experiential knowledge, not some algorithm.

4) Software development doesn't finish at v1, it's ongoing.

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#22
post #16

This book review has a few economic fallacies and was probably not written by Gates. But, these points are interesting-- "It" refers to "intangible investment" here-- 1. It’s a sunk cost. If your investment doesn’t pan out, you don’t have physical assets like machinery that you can sell off to recoup some of your money. 2. It tends to create spillovers that can be taken advantage of by rival companies. Uber’s biggest…

"This book review has a few economic fallacies and was probably not written by Gates."

Dunno if they're fallacies so much as oversimplifications. But the oversimplifications aren't really the point; they're just meant to reference the concepts and give a hyper-quick overview if you've never heard of them. The rest of the review remains a valid point if you substitute more realistic economic concepts. This is my pre-emptive reply to the inevitable dozens of posts arguing about the oversimplifications. None of it matters to the point the author wanted to make.

Note I say "valid", not correct. Whether economists are undervaluing intangible assets is a rich and interesting question that I have only vague opinions about personally. I'm just pointing out that the argument itself does not depend on the oversimplified economic concepts used to introduce the point.

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#23
When I first learned that software had a price during my very young years, I was in quite disbelief. Isn’t it just bunch of invisible bits? Can’t it be copied with almost zero cost? Why someone would pay for it anyway when kids like me can make it? It’s hard to charge money for things people can’t physically posses. In early years, almost all software companies employed a trick to design big attractive boxes with bit of goodies. When Gates wrote BASIC, many programmers themselves in the community didn’t thought any software was worth paying for. It has taken almost a generation to internalize that bits have price and we have got rid of most of those boxes finally.

On the side note, crypto currency is the new new intengible assets that is hard to internalize. Ironically, Gates has wrote them off as not worth calling them assets because they aren’t store of a value.

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#24
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've substituted "no one" for "not enough" in order to gin up your pedantry. The title is "not enough". Or do you think the phrases mean the same thing?

"Not enough" and "nothing" are usually very difficult to distinguish, since they usually have largely the same effects. (e.g. it doesn't matter if I have insufficient money or no money at all; life sucks in both of those alternate-universes)

> since they usually have largely the same effects.

They absolutely don't. I'd you have "not enough money" to meet your current monthly budget that means you can't afford to put anything aside for your vacation next year but can still get by.

If you have "no money", you can eat or pay your rent.

The two phrases have entirely different meanings, and usually with important differences in connotation.

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#25

I think his straw man for supply and demand is off. Higher demand doesn’t create lower prices. Lower prices creates “more quantity demanded” at a given level. If demand increases, then prices and quantity both go up. This may be semantics, but it isn’t like economics completely falls apart. Similarly, economics is able to handle products with high fixed and low marginal costs. (Natural monopolies) I suspect he gave t…

>> ... as demand for a product goes up, supply increases, and price goes down

I think it is fine but confusing because it skips over some steps. A longer version might be:

... as demand for a product goes up, the demanded quantity goes up, which causes supply to increase (to meet the higher demanded quantity) which then pulls the price down (due to the increased size of the market and competition).

The net effect of this is decreased price overall due to economies of scale (since the total production volume of the product in the market is now higher).

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#26
post #23

When I first learned that software had a price during my very young years, I was in quite disbelief. Isn’t it just bunch of invisible bits? Can’t it be copied with almost zero cost? Why someone would pay for it anyway when kids like me can make it? It’s hard to charge money for things people can’t physically posses. In early years, almost all software companies employed a trick to design big attractive boxes with bit…

Elaborate on the boxes? This isn't the old trope by Bob Wallace about 'I sell manuals'?

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#27
> Imagine Ford releasing a new model of car. The first car costs a bit more to create, because you have to spend money designing and testing it. But each vehicle after that requires a certain amount of materials and labor. The tenth car you build costs the same to make as the 1000th car.

As someone with software and hardware at Ford in Dearborn and at many of their suppliers, this is not true. Ford knows that the costs decrease over time, and demands part of this cut from their suppliers. The contract includes a decreasing price over time or over quantity, because ostensibly you're increasing efficiency and writing off initial engineering costs.

I imagine that Microsft does the same with their hardware division, and agree with the sibling comments that Gates probably did not write all of this.

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#29
post #22
post #16

This book review has a few economic fallacies and was probably not written by Gates. But, these points are interesting-- "It" refers to "intangible investment" here-- 1. It’s a sunk cost. If your investment doesn’t pan out, you don’t have physical assets like machinery that you can sell off to recoup some of your money. 2. It tends to create spillovers that can be taken advantage of by rival companies. Uber’s biggest…

"This book review has a few economic fallacies and was probably not written by Gates." Dunno if they're fallacies so much as oversimplifications. But the oversimplifications aren't really the point; they're just meant to reference the concepts and give a hyper-quick overview if you've never heard of them. The rest of the review remains a valid point if you substitute more realistic economic concepts. This is my pre-e…

You're right to say it's mostly oversimplifications. The fallacy was the first economic concept introduced in the article--

> The first is still more or less true today: as demand for a product goes up, supply increases, and price goes down.

Classic econ teaches as demand increases, prices go up. The exception is if the supply curve is flat (for instance, 0 marginal cost).

Re: Intangible investment behaves differently

#30

I think his straw man for supply and demand is off. Higher demand doesn’t create lower prices. Lower prices creates “more quantity demanded” at a given level. If demand increases, then prices and quantity both go up. This may be semantics, but it isn’t like economics completely falls apart. Similarly, economics is able to handle products with high fixed and low marginal costs. (Natural monopolies) I suspect he gave t…

That's bothered me before. It really seems like economists flipped their axes on a basic supply demand curve.

They discuss it as if price is the independent variable and quantity (demanded or supplied) is the dependent, and yet any 9th grader would be marked down for putting their independent variable on the "y-axis".

It amazes me how something generally accepted as wrong stays that way.

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