How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
1–10 of 41 posts
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#2I suspect this will be a fairly regular story in the next few months/years. Self-driving tech seems to be a lot further off than people think so a lot of companies that were formerly very exciting will not be able to deliver and will need to close up shop. I think there's some possibility that it will go the way of flying cars at least for now.
Fortunately a lot of the tech that does work can find a second life as progressive enhancement for human drivers. Blind spot detection, auto lane following, and smart cruise control are great features that ease some of the burden in driving and I think it's good to see them being more widely distributed in newer cars.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#3I suspect this will be a fairly regular story in the next few months/years. Self-driving tech seems to be a lot further off than people think so a lot of companies that were formerly very exciting will not be able to deliver and will need to close up shop. I think there's some possibility that it will go the way of flying cars at least for now. Fortunately a lot of the tech that does work can find a second life as pr…
I thought Waymo has pretty much cracked that nut. They've covered several million miles of testing in AZ and CA. You might be right, but do you have any links where I could see where your skepticism is coming from.
Waymo vs Quanergy is apples and oranges I think
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#4Oh, Quanergy, the vaporware LIDAR company. "Quanergy is the leading provider of solid state LiDAR sensors and smart sensing solutions."
They announced a flash LIDAR in 2016, but don't seem to have shipped the product.
I expect that Continental, the German auto parts company, will be the winner here. They bought Advanced Scientific Concepts, which makes good but expensive flash LIDAR units for military and space applications. Now they have to make them cheaper and in volume, which is what auto parts companies do. They already have some shorter-range, lower resolution LIDAR products on the market for anti-collision systems, so they have experience with the automotive LIDAR environment.
Delco, the US auto parts maker, is also working on self-driving components, including LIDAR. They're not saying much, but they have a California autonomous vehicle testing license and some cars on the road. Bosch also has a self driving car in test. It's entirely possible that self-driving will just be an auto part, sourced from the usual big auto parts makers.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#5I suspect this will be a fairly regular story in the next few months/years. Self-driving tech seems to be a lot further off than people think so a lot of companies that were formerly very exciting will not be able to deliver and will need to close up shop. I think there's some possibility that it will go the way of flying cars at least for now. Fortunately a lot of the tech that does work can find a second life as pr…
I thought Waymo has pretty much cracked that nut. They've covered several million miles of testing in AZ and CA. You might be right, but do you have any links where I could see where your skepticism is coming from. Waymo vs Quanergy is apples and oranges I think
Not the OP, but I think rain and especially snow and fog don’t happen that often in those two States and afaik driving autonomously under those circumstances is still an unsolved problem with no easy solution in sight.
Now, if you want to extend the self-driving thing to other parts of the world you’ll most probably need to solve the singularity problem, at least for driving in the Eastern European capital city where I’m currently living where you have to actually “guess” what the other traffic participants will do next: is that kid going against the flow of traffic on his bike? (answer: yes) Is that cab going to cut me off in the middle of the intersection and should I take my foot off the acceleration pedal so that we won’t crash? (answer: yes to both questions). Are those pedestrians going to jaywalk without checking for any incoming vehicles? (answer: yes). All these things happened to me during my short city drive half an hour ago.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#6I'm not saying this is as extreme a case, but I got a whiff of similarity to Theranos, in the aspect of an emphasis on loyalty making it difficult for the CEO to listen to debate. Of course, that could also be because the journalists covering tech businesses nowadays are looking for the next Theranos story.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought Waymo has pretty much cracked that nut. They've covered several million miles of testing in AZ and CA. You might be right, but do you have any links where I could see where your skepticism is coming from. Waymo vs Quanergy is apples and oranges I think
Not the OP, but I think rain and especially snow and fog don’t happen that often in those two States and afaik driving autonomously under those circumstances is still an unsolved problem with no easy solution in sight. Now, if you want to extend the self-driving thing to other parts of the world you’ll most probably need to solve the singularity problem, at least for driving in the Eastern European capital city where…
That's true. But Bird is a still billion dollar company selling transportation that is compatible with only certain weather and population density.
If you can make 5% of the world's transportation 5x better, you have an enormous success on your hands.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not the OP, but I think rain and especially snow and fog don’t happen that often in those two States and afaik driving autonomously under those circumstances is still an unsolved problem with no easy solution in sight. Now, if you want to extend the self-driving thing to other parts of the world you’ll most probably need to solve the singularity problem, at least for driving in the Eastern European capital city where…
That's true. But Bird is a still billion dollar company selling transportation that is compatible with only certain weather and population density. If you can make 5% of the world's transportation 5x better, you have an enormous success on your hands.
> Bird is a still billion dollar company
It's hype at this point, we'll see how that shakes out as well.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#9Oh, Quanergy, the vaporware LIDAR company. "Quanergy is the leading provider of solid state LiDAR sensors and smart sensing solutions." They announced a flash LIDAR in 2016, but don't seem to have shipped the product. I expect that Continental, the German auto parts company, will be the winner here. They bought Advanced Scientific Concepts, which makes good but expensive flash LIDAR units for military and space appli…
It's entirely possible that self-driving will just be an auto part, sourced from the usual big auto parts makers.
I've always assumed that this is the eventual outcome, even if there is a brief period where SelphDrivin, LLC, et. al., sell their own cars. For decades Bosch would sell a whole fuel injection and ignition system for your new model. Brembo and Bendix will sell you some brakes. I don't know who makes ABS sensors and computers, but I'd guess it's not GM (probably Delco, though) and Ford. MobileEye's lane assist was an option on the Mercedes Sprinter we bought. The next logical step in my mind is self-driving systems.
Re: How a billion dollar autonomous vehicle startup lost its way
#10Oh, Quanergy, the vaporware LIDAR company. "Quanergy is the leading provider of solid state LiDAR sensors and smart sensing solutions." They announced a flash LIDAR in 2016, but don't seem to have shipped the product. I expect that Continental, the German auto parts company, will be the winner here. They bought Advanced Scientific Concepts, which makes good but expensive flash LIDAR units for military and space appli…
It's entirely possible that self-driving will just be an auto part, sourced from the usual big auto parts makers. I've always assumed that this is the eventual outcome, even if there is a brief period where SelphDrivin, LLC, et. al., sell their own cars. For decades Bosch would sell a whole fuel injection and ignition system for your new model. Brembo and Bendix will sell you some brakes. I don't know who makes ABS s…
Speaking of MobileEye, from what I understand their goal is to slowly work up their parts offerings from driver assist to self-driving.