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Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

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Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#61

Post by seanmcdirmid »

sct202 wrote: post #59
kyrieeschaton wrote: post #18

Meanwhile, the USA will dump 1 trillion dollars at a time on things like the Obama stimulus to apparently no effect, a decade of massive subsidies to an insolvent financial sector, billions of dollars on failed school districts... China might overpay, eventually, if they actually invest their claimed amount of money (doubtful), but they do appear to at least get a road when they pay for a road.

Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards, but they're spending their money on things you can see and use. The train I take to work is 40 years old, and the tracks are over a 100. I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth.

> Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards

No they don't, that is completely a red herring.

> I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth.

We could have HSR also if we were willing to pay for it...if we thought it made sense to our economic growth. And the Chinese have taken out a lot of debt to pay for it, it wasn't free, and the only profitable line ATM is the one between Beijing and Shanghai. HSR might work out in the future, HSR might lead to economic growth, but these are bets like anything else.

I've taken HSR between Beijing and almost Guangzhou (my wife's hometown doesn't have an airport but has an HSR station). It was fairly empty much of the way during the 6 hour or so trip.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#62

Post by seanmcdirmid »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #57
nickserv wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the fact that the Soviets over-extended themselves militarily at the same time, Afghanistan comes readily to mind. China has a large, powerful and I would assume expensive militarily, but has not deployed significant number of troops in the past few decades (since Korea?), and in any case has never occupied a foreign country. That's a huge amount of resources available to spend on infrastructure and "sof…

> China ... has never occupied a foreign country. I'm not sure that Tibet would agree with you.

It is China's position that they never invaded Tibet. The Yuan dynasty invaded and conquered Tibet, but they don't count since they were Mongolians. It is weird logic to be sure, but there it is.

Otherwise Tibet was supposed to be Chinese territory afterwards even if the Chinese dynasties following the Yuan didn't actively govern it and mostly left them to their own devices.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#63

Post by spacehome »

lwf wrote: post #30
spacehome wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really hard to get a precise number of how much money we spend on military. The budget for the military is snuck into other line items and obscures the true cost. For instance the VA is not included, even though we only need the VA due to having veterans. And the costs for nuclear weapons and nuclear power plants are included in the Department of Energy's budget.

The VA is a weird case — if we had comprehensive medical coverage for all Americans, the because-of-military costs would only be those incurred due to care for wounded veterans. I believe that's a minority of the VA's expenditures, but sometimes it is hard to separate. For example, my grandfather receives a hearing aid from the VA — is that because of too much time spent around jet planes, or just due to age?

Without a doubt, but as it stands now, it's part of the total compensation package that is offered to service members and should be accounted as such.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#64

Post by forapurpose »

baud147258 wrote: post #29
forapurpose wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> building and rebuilding other country's economies is a boon to the local economy, particularly when that other country is footing the bill. That's literally why the US was on top starting at the end of WWII. I'm sure it helped, but the U.S. was already by far the dominant power before that economic activity. At the end of WWII, the U.S. produced half of the world's GDP, a staggering number. It was the only advanced…

>It says a lot, IMHO, that the U.S. didn't pursue a global empire at that point. I think that, politically, it would have never been accepted by the population or the (conscription-based) army. Also they ended with big not-quite empire with NATO soon after.

> I think that, politically, it would have never been accepted by the population or the (conscription-based) army.

I agree, but the population is how the U.S. makes decisions (very broadly speaking) - that's the advantage of being a democracy.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#65

Post by mr_toad »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #48
sonnyblarney wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison to Soviet Union is problematic but definitely more relevant than US investment scenarios that you highlighted. The US scenario you highlighted would be more comparable to Chinese investment in the last 25 years, no? The clear difference between Soviet Union and China is that China has a growing and robust economy, with a firm grip on the situation whereas the Soviet Union was aching away on so many lie…

> Chinese fabricated financials can be papered over with any kind of magic the state wants to apply to it - so long as the economy continues to move forward the numbers will say anything they want them to say. My feeling is business people and economists are upset that China utterly refuses to follow neoliberal economic polices. Preferring instead to follow old school Keynesian policies. Policy makers thus view China…

China’s external debt to GDP is one of the lowest in the world, as is their debt per capita.

They aren’t going to be ‘punished’ by creditors because they don’t have significant debt. In fact, it’s more likely that China will be the one doing the punishing down the road.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#66

Post by sonnyblarney »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #48
sonnyblarney wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison to Soviet Union is problematic but definitely more relevant than US investment scenarios that you highlighted. The US scenario you highlighted would be more comparable to Chinese investment in the last 25 years, no? The clear difference between Soviet Union and China is that China has a growing and robust economy, with a firm grip on the situation whereas the Soviet Union was aching away on so many lie…

> Chinese fabricated financials can be papered over with any kind of magic the state wants to apply to it - so long as the economy continues to move forward the numbers will say anything they want them to say. My feeling is business people and economists are upset that China utterly refuses to follow neoliberal economic polices. Preferring instead to follow old school Keynesian policies. Policy makers thus view China…

I think both your assertions are not correct.

Economists just want 'real' numbers from China, numbers that reflect some kind of reality. That's before any ideology sits in.

If there were at least transparency there, we'd all be better off, that said if there were, the 'fudges' necessary to make things worse would be more obviously lies.

As far as 2008 - this was a failure of integrity from the bottom to the top: those taking home loans, mortgage lending staff, executives, those bundling up crap, the ratings agencies, and the laziness of those buying the bundles. It was a systematic failure of reason as well.

Were actual, material numbers to have been objectively published, we wouldn't have had a crisis in 2008, because nobody would have bought bundles of crap, and the market would have needed no correction because it wouldn't have gotten out of hand.

China's central policies surely irk some, of course they can do it if they please, but they cant reasonably contend to be 'free trade' or what not so long as there is such government intervention; they should not be in the WTO.

Everyone in the world would benefit from more objective clarity on all of this.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#67

Post by nopinsight »

nopinsight wrote: post #34

"The bulk of major Belt and Road projects are in Malaysia, South Asia and Indochina" -- subheading of the 2nd chart Malaysia and Indonesia control the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes which doubled in traffic over the past decade [1]. The strait connects manufacturers in China to fast-growing large population centers in South Asia, including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh with over 1.5 bil…

More info on the Strait of Malacca (emphases mine):

"The strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Over 94,000 vessels pass through the strait each year (2008) making it the busiest strait in the world, carrying about 25% of the world's traded goods, including oil, Chinese manufactured products, coal, palm oil and Indonesian coffee. About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through the Strait, mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to Asian markets. In 2007, an estimated 13.7 million barrels per day were transported through the strait, increasing to an estimated 15.2 million barrels per day in 2011."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#68

Post by adrianratnapala »

jessaustin wrote: post #10
andrew_ wrote: post #2

Anyone else learn a new meaning to the word "founder"? Thought it was a typo for "flounder" only to learn that it can also mean "to give way, collapse." Stay weird, English.

"founder" is a fairly gruesome injury to horses' hooves. For most of my life this was the meaning that would have first come to mind. HN has fixed that...

For me the first meaning that comes to mind is a leader of the American Revolutionary War. Wig and all. And I'm not even American.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#69

Post by adrianratnapala »

bogomipz wrote: post #41
logicx24 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India had the world's largest GDP under the Mughals and had continued positive growth, but by the end of the British Raj, was facing stagnant population growth and actually reduced agricultural productivity. So contrary to everything you're saying, India was not only productive before the British, it was actually worsened by Britain's exploitation.

>"India had the world's largest GDP under the Mughals and had continued positive growth." Do you have a citation for this? For the entire 300 years of the Mughal Empire? How accurate would that information even have been in say the early part of 16th century?

Something like this is a pretty standard and unsurprising result. Here is one quick google hit: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-...

No one should be surprised that that India and China were the big dogs for most of history. Perhaps more surprising are that:

a) This continued well into the 19th century, and

b) India was bigger than China in medieval times.

I'd say that (b) is not a fair comparison, China is just one empire, India is a whole bunch. While (a) should not be a surprise that economic size lags behind whatever structural strengths might have made European powers famous and powerful for a while.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#70

Post by duxup »

jeffreybezos wrote: post #58
duxup wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the main point was that the Chinese investment seems to at times fly in the face of where trade really is / is going. The us interstate system was where there was trade already and not many alternate routes / better systems. China's strategic concers are obvious and make sense...and yet if push came to shove and they were cut off from the sea, are they really trading via rail with Europe or others in that sce…

Do you have a reference for the US interstate system being built where there was trade already?

I guess I don't have any links, but it isn't hard to imagine interstate trade in the US in the mind 20th century. There were military considerations later on but the groundwork before that wasn't entirely military focused.
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