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Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

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Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#51

Post by awad »

forapurpose wrote: post #21
monocasa wrote: post #4

Come on, building and rebuilding other country's economies is a boon to the local economy, particularly when that other country is footing the bill. That's literally why the US was on top starting at the end of WWII. Not everything the Soviets were doing in the 70s is the reason for their downfall.

> building and rebuilding other country's economies is a boon to the local economy, particularly when that other country is footing the bill. That's literally why the US was on top starting at the end of WWII. I'm sure it helped, but the U.S. was already by far the dominant power before that economic activity. At the end of WWII, the U.S. produced half of the world's GDP, a staggering number. It was the only advanced…

It's not clear what the advantages of pure imperialism would have been at the time vs taking advantage of all of those exact pros you mentioned without outright taking over of nations. Global hegemony shifted from pure colonialism to neocolonialism over the few decades and it's still to be determined what the next wave will be.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#52

Post by nickserv »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #13
baybal2 wrote: post #5

The key quote: >"It’s worth considering all this misdirected spending in the context of the Soviet Union’s decline. Around the middle decades of the 20th century, Moscow presided over a China-style economic miracle that caused many in the West to fear they would be overtaken."

The key question may be to what degree China's economy resembles Russia's. If China's is some free-market lipstick on a planned-economy pig, they are likely to suffer Russia's fate. To the extent that the free-market reforms are real, they have a better chance of escaping it. My personal opinion is that China's free market is real, but the state intervention is still fairly heavy for a "free market economy". What doe…

There's also the fact that the Soviets over-extended themselves militarily at the same time, Afghanistan comes readily to mind.

China has a large, powerful and I would assume expensive militarily, but has not deployed significant number of troops in the past few decades (since Korea?), and in any case has never occupied a foreign country.

That's a huge amount of resources available to spend on infrastructure and "soft" power. The Chinese approach seems much more likely to succeed than the Soviet one.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#53

Post by rplst8 »

dannyobrien wrote: post #36
TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't know this either. Amusing. Many founders do founder. verb (used without object) (of a ship, boat, etc.) to fill with water and sink. to fall or sink down, as buildings, ground, etc.: Built on a former lake bed, the building has foundered nearly ten feet. to become wrecked; fail utterly: The project foundered because public support was lacking. to stumble, break down, or go lame, as a horse: to become ill fro…

See also the double meaning of “career”.

Huh. Crazy. I never new that meaning of "career" and have only used careen in that sense. Which according to Google is a North American thing.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#54

Post by seanmcdirmid »

nickserv wrote: post #52
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key question may be to what degree China's economy resembles Russia's. If China's is some free-market lipstick on a planned-economy pig, they are likely to suffer Russia's fate. To the extent that the free-market reforms are real, they have a better chance of escaping it. My personal opinion is that China's free market is real, but the state intervention is still fairly heavy for a "free market economy". What doe…

There's also the fact that the Soviets over-extended themselves militarily at the same time, Afghanistan comes readily to mind. China has a large, powerful and I would assume expensive militarily, but has not deployed significant number of troops in the past few decades (since Korea?), and in any case has never occupied a foreign country. That's a huge amount of resources available to spend on infrastructure and "sof…

China has been far more worried about (a) internal security, the party is deathly afraid of its own people, and (b) its border countries. On the latter point, China and Russia have even fought some skirmishes over their vast border, and have only been recently back on friendly terms.

China did make it all the way to Hanoi during the Sino-Vietnam war back in 1979. I'm not sure what definition of occupy you want to use here.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#55

Post by thedailymail »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #48
sonnyblarney wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison to Soviet Union is problematic but definitely more relevant than US investment scenarios that you highlighted. The US scenario you highlighted would be more comparable to Chinese investment in the last 25 years, no? The clear difference between Soviet Union and China is that China has a growing and robust economy, with a firm grip on the situation whereas the Soviet Union was aching away on so many lie…

> Chinese fabricated financials can be papered over with any kind of magic the state wants to apply to it - so long as the economy continues to move forward the numbers will say anything they want them to say. My feeling is business people and economists are upset that China utterly refuses to follow neoliberal economic polices. Preferring instead to follow old school Keynesian policies. Policy makers thus view China…

Besides Keynes and obviously Marx, China's nationalist economics policies have been strongly influenced by Friedrich List (who also inspired economic development in Japan).

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#56

Post by Barrin92 »

lainga wrote: post #31
Barrin92 wrote: post #28

I don't see any justification for the Soviet analogy other than wanting to conjure up the image of the impending collapse of China. This sounds like the infrastructure version of the 'financial bubble' prediction that crops up every other year. If one wanted to pick a positive story there would be the example of the American progressive era, the creation of the interstate system, the railway system during the 19th ce…

From 3rd paragraph TFA, and unlike 1910-1950s USA, Like the Soviet Union in the 1970s, China is coming to the end of a long labor-force boom, and hoping that an orgy of investment will keep the old magic going while stabilizing its fraying frontiers. Cornelius Vanderbilt wasn't trying to overcome a graying America or shore up the Monroe Doctrine by building railroads in Latin America and Africa. If anything, I fail t…

I wasn't trying to create any definite story, I'm just saying that it is easy to make a historical analogy depending on what you wantto take away from it. China is not the Soviet Union any more than it is the United States. Doing away with the belt and road initiative by painting it as a Soviet vanity project seems too simple, the country is communist only in name.

For me, this narrative seems to be very typical of our European/American mindset. All great infrastructure plans are grandiose planning, we're done growing, we're 2 years away from the next crisis and so forth and projecting it onto China, which seems to have shaken off that very prediction over and over. China's current mode of development does not comply with our 'End of History' like narrative about how countries ought to develop, so we're stuck in a constant loop of shallow pessimistic analogies.

I would want to see an in-depth analysis of the project really looking at the consequences with an eye on the long-term effects rather than just stories about some harbor in Africa falling short of expectations. This is not illuminating.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#57

Post by AnimalMuppet »

nickserv wrote: post #52
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The key question may be to what degree China's economy resembles Russia's. If China's is some free-market lipstick on a planned-economy pig, they are likely to suffer Russia's fate. To the extent that the free-market reforms are real, they have a better chance of escaping it. My personal opinion is that China's free market is real, but the state intervention is still fairly heavy for a "free market economy". What doe…

There's also the fact that the Soviets over-extended themselves militarily at the same time, Afghanistan comes readily to mind. China has a large, powerful and I would assume expensive militarily, but has not deployed significant number of troops in the past few decades (since Korea?), and in any case has never occupied a foreign country. That's a huge amount of resources available to spend on infrastructure and "sof…

> China ... has never occupied a foreign country.

I'm not sure that Tibet would agree with you.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#58

Post by jeffreybezos »

duxup wrote: post #39
Barrin92 wrote: post #28

I don't see any justification for the Soviet analogy other than wanting to conjure up the image of the impending collapse of China. This sounds like the infrastructure version of the 'financial bubble' prediction that crops up every other year. If one wanted to pick a positive story there would be the example of the American progressive era, the creation of the interstate system, the railway system during the 19th ce…

I think the main point was that the Chinese investment seems to at times fly in the face of where trade really is / is going. The us interstate system was where there was trade already and not many alternate routes / better systems. China's strategic concers are obvious and make sense...and yet if push came to shove and they were cut off from the sea, are they really trading via rail with Europe or others in that sce…

Do you have a reference for the US interstate system being built where there was trade already?

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#59

Post by sct202 »

kyrieeschaton wrote: post #18

Meanwhile, the USA will dump 1 trillion dollars at a time on things like the Obama stimulus to apparently no effect, a decade of massive subsidies to an insolvent financial sector, billions of dollars on failed school districts... China might overpay, eventually, if they actually invest their claimed amount of money (doubtful), but they do appear to at least get a road when they pay for a road.

Yeah, people keep saying China is a house of cards, but they're spending their money on things you can see and use. The train I take to work is 40 years old, and the tracks are over a 100. I'm envious of all the new things they're building with all their 'fake' growth.

Re: Soviet Collapse Echoes in China’s Belt and Road

#60

Post by [deleted] »

rfinney wrote: post #33
logicx24 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India had the world's largest GDP under the Mughals and had continued positive growth, but by the end of the British Raj, was facing stagnant population growth and actually reduced agricultural productivity. So contrary to everything you're saying, India was not only productive before the British, it was actually worsened by Britain's exploitation.

There are other views on the economics of India under British rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India_under_the_Bri... example: * British increased the area of irrigated land by a factor of eight, contrasting with 5% under the Mughals.

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