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USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

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Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#211
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this may be true, but appeal to authority is still a logical fallacy. You can't just shame people into believing something they don't understand because "smarter" people believe it. It's a shameful failure of communication more than anything else. And I don't understand why people like you don't understand that.

The authority here is insurmountably large and the data is readably accessible. It's like a blind person claiming the sky isn't blue despite the determination of every sighted person. There isn't even a single point of authority here. The determination is made by climate scientists, biologists, ecologists, etc... across multiple independent governments, allies and enemies alike. Argument from authority is meant to av…

But for other consensuses, for example evolution, any individual person can readily explain how it works to a anyone else. Then it is up to the person hearing the model to accept it as fact, and maybe they make some logical error rejecting it. But until you explain to them the model, I don't think you should have any expectation that they should believe you.

It sounds like no one responding to me actually understands how climate models work. How do they work? What are their assumptions, their dynamical models, their uncertainties? I don't think you or anyone else in this thread can tell me that. You can tell me "the data is there", or vague assertions like "there are papers everywhere" - that's it, no specifics. If you were writing a scientific paper with such vague assertions it would be thrown in the trash.

Only specialists are qualified to even enter the debate. That is the essence of the fallacious appeals to authority that undermine all climate arguments. And the specialists are terrible communicators.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you don't know "Pascal's Wager" argument for climate change. Because this is equivalent of hearing "But Bible is real, God himself wrote that in the bible, how dare you suggest that there might be 1% chance of God not being real?" in an actual 'Pascal's wager' argument.

Do you know what empiricism is?

Do you know what a thought experiment is?

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because their stupidity is going to kill us all. I'm very vitriolic against people that are trying to kill me and my family, I can't help it.

Do you not see how your reply to the OP's sincere question amounts to the same lackluster, overgeneralized, and lazy intellectual stance that the people you're criticizing take on climate science? You couldn't have more aptly proved the OP's point.

There was nothing sincere about OP's question just as there's nothing lackluster about my answer. You can play your two-sideism game with people that buy that bullshit, I don't.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because their stupidity is going to kill us all. I'm very vitriolic against people that are trying to kill me and my family, I can't help it.

I've been really thinking about this, and I have a follow up question. Attempted murder is a felony in the US. If denying climate change is really "going to kill us all," and climate deniers "are trying to kill [you] and [your] family," should they be jailed and prosecuted for attempted murder? If not, why? Are they not guilty of that crime?

You do a great job at pretending to be dumb, I almost bought it.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthday/story?id=4507735&pag...

https://www.dw.com/en/report-extreme-weather-could-kill-over...

http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-chan...

We just discovered the climate change is happening much faster than our models suggested meaning all those predictions are OPTIMISTIC. I live in a US state that's currently covered in smoke because it's all burning, and a bunch of people die every year in increasingly harder to control fires.

You know what's the most enraging part of this? People like you that go around using logical fallacies to argue a completely discredited side of a very black and white matter simply because you believe it doesn't affect you.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#215
post #128

Look at the temperature chart for the last 10,000 years, the greenland core ice temperature, GISP2 for example, and you'll see a completely different picture. Everything looks extreme when looked at a very small scale...

http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GISP210kla... Here’s the GISP2 data, plus samples from the past two centuries. Still seems pretty extreme to me.

I think this one shows it even better: http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GRIPtempBo...

And yes, there's a fast climb, but it's not the only instance in history, look at 800AD, 200AD, and a lot more in the past, it seems to be the way the temp fluctuates, very sharply.

If we get back to the 10,000 years chart, do the last 150 years seems off the chart? If anything, it shows that we're cooler than the last 10,000 years.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#216
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this may be true, but appeal to authority is still a logical fallacy. You can't just shame people into believing something they don't understand because "smarter" people believe it. It's a shameful failure of communication more than anything else. And I don't understand why people like you don't understand that.

It's not an appeal to authority. That would literally be, "I'm a climate scientist, trust me". What's actually happening is: "I'm a climate scientist, trust me, but if you don't, look at this ludicrous amount of data and research gathered/conducted over generations".

AFAIK appeal to authority is only a fallacy when the authority is an expert in an unrelated field. It is not an appeal to authority to reference the opinion of a well-established astrophysicist when discussing astrophysics.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#217
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this doing the opposite by showing how one can play tricks with various time windows and such. The exact kind of stuff deniers would do to "prove" their point.

Right, my point being that most folks would not bother with trying to understand the points this article is making, and instead take the graph showing 'nothing to see here' and run with it.

Ah, I see the point. In that respect it would have been better if they had illustrated the trick with a hypothetical widgets produced by a factory scenario than jump straight into climate change.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think we are disagreeing. I'm just pointing out that the phrase was deliberately pushed out into the wider public discourse for specific political motivations, and it is ironic that this phrase is now being used by those same political forces to cast aspersions on scientists.

It appears that I was trying to correct a misconception you do not actually hold. I've seen apparently well meaning people claim that "global warming" was rebranded "climate change" by Frank Luntz to make it sound less scary, while both terms have been in widespread use among scientists since before the issue became widely known among the public.

Yes, but more to the point, they are not synonymous except in very recent history. Theories of climate change were needed to explain evidence of the Ice Age long before anyone thought that warming was a concern, back in the early 19th Century. The evidence that climate could change was also generally distinct from the evidence which established that CO2 could change the climate. Global warming is a subset or result of climate change.

Re: USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

#220
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The authority here is insurmountably large and the data is readably accessible. It's like a blind person claiming the sky isn't blue despite the determination of every sighted person. There isn't even a single point of authority here. The determination is made by climate scientists, biologists, ecologists, etc... across multiple independent governments, allies and enemies alike. Argument from authority is meant to av…

But for other consensuses, for example evolution, any individual person can readily explain how it works to a anyone else. Then it is up to the person hearing the model to accept it as fact, and maybe they make some logical error rejecting it. But until you explain to them the model, I don't think you should have any expectation that they should believe you. It sounds like no one responding to me actually understands…

You can Google it for about 5 minutes and find enough evidence to occupy your time with months of reading. There's a huge variety of available data across various complexities. You can go as deep as you want. Hell, there's a webcomic visualization (https://xkcd.com/1732/) that cites multiple sources. There are multiple documentaries outlining it. How much more accessible are you requiring this information to be?

You're going to lengths to make a weak argument here.

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