Start with a 3 species model. Imagine a shallow, closed sea, in which there is a shark, a plesiosaur, and a bird. We need to explain why the shark and the bird survive, but the plesiosaur goes extinct. An asteroid hits somewhere, causing environmental change. For the rest of this comment, I'm going to refer to temperature as a short-hand way of referring to any environmental change. The shallow, closed sea is undergo…
A good match for the extinction patterns is which species could survive a prolonged interruption of photosynthesis.