The article title needs punctuation.
US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
11–20 of 180 posts
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#12There are all sorts of reasons that house sales slow down, not the least of which are reduced tax benefits, higher interest rates, and a general market forces. The interesting thing to watch for is the flipper sales. Which is to say if a significant chunk of the market in your area is actually being held by people who bought the house just to flip it, then when you get two or three months of flat to downward pressure…
That's not really what happened in the last crash though. The people who bought, held. The only people who got hurt were home owners who go underwater and then lose a job. They can't afford to wait it out, they can't afford to make the payment, so they end up in foreclosure. Then the bank holds and it ends up as a zombie home.[1] The zombie falls to pieces, so the bank gets a bail out, the home is written off, and th…
Flippers are like canaries in the mine. They are usually leveraged like crazy on short term loans, not flipping the house quickly can be fatal to them. Rental won’t let them pay off there loans when they come due in a couple of months.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's not really what happened in the last crash though. The people who bought, held. The only people who got hurt were home owners who go underwater and then lose a job. They can't afford to wait it out, they can't afford to make the payment, so they end up in foreclosure. Then the bank holds and it ends up as a zombie home.[1] The zombie falls to pieces, so the bank gets a bail out, the home is written off, and th…
All true, I was thinking about the 'home price recessions' that happen periodically as opposed to the mortgage crisis which was precipitated in part by synthetic CDOs masking poor lending processes.
Ah, understood. I remember shopping for houses after the crash, and it seemed everything was either a trash heap, or in foreclosure. The bank wouldn't take an offer, preferring to cash auction to investors at the starting price of the highest offer they had. No cash, no house, no matter how good the credit rating. The cheap house thing was basically a myth from my vantage point.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#14Misleading label from HN - article is amp from Market Watch, not actually google.com. Ideally, HN would point at the original. Personally, my phone Adblock prevents google from spying on my traffic in general, but these cached amp links get tracked by google.
This is one of the reasons AMP is terrible.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#15The Case-Shiller Index currently has home prices rising at 2-3x inflation: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/46307-case-shiller-home... That would certainly seem to be unsustainable.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#16Misleading label from HN - article is amp from Market Watch, not actually google.com. Ideally, HN would point at the original. Personally, my phone Adblock prevents google from spying on my traffic in general, but these cached amp links get tracked by google.
[deleted]
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#17Redfin didn't exactly do anything interesting or unique. It was literally yet another real estate app/website. It's not surprising.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#18There are all sorts of reasons that house sales slow down, not the least of which are reduced tax benefits, higher interest rates, and a general market forces. The interesting thing to watch for is the flipper sales. Which is to say if a significant chunk of the market in your area is actually being held by people who bought the house just to flip it, then when you get two or three months of flat to downward pressure…
That's not really what happened in the last crash though. The people who bought, held. The only people who got hurt were home owners who go underwater and then lose a job. They can't afford to wait it out, they can't afford to make the payment, so they end up in foreclosure. Then the bank holds and it ends up as a zombie home.[1] The zombie falls to pieces, so the bank gets a bail out, the home is written off, and th…
> The only people who got hurt were home owners who go underwater and then lose a job.
Or those with Adjustable Rate Mortgages that popped and then got priced out of their homes.
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#19There are all sorts of reasons that house sales slow down, not the least of which are reduced tax benefits, higher interest rates, and a general market forces. The interesting thing to watch for is the flipper sales. Which is to say if a significant chunk of the market in your area is actually being held by people who bought the house just to flip it, then when you get two or three months of flat to downward pressure…
That's not really what happened in the last crash though. The people who bought, held. The only people who got hurt were home owners who go underwater and then lose a job. They can't afford to wait it out, they can't afford to make the payment, so they end up in foreclosure. Then the bank holds and it ends up as a zombie home.[1] The zombie falls to pieces, so the bank gets a bail out, the home is written off, and th…
[deleted]
Re: US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says
#20The upcoming changes in the tax code certainly did not help the housing market:
- The new SALT cap is extremely low, particularly if you own a home in the Bay Area. 10K! Mitigative solution: Stay put and keep current tax base, hampering both supply and demand (for a nicer home)
- The doubled standard deduction made owning with a mortgage less attractive (But a win overall once your loan is paid off enough).
- Mortgage interest deduction lowered from 1M to 750K (I believe it's 1/2 if you're buying alone). Houses are so expensive here this actually matters. On the supply side: More post-tax money + higher interest rates means those who locked into great rates won't want to sell, or want to buy a more expensive home. On the demand side: All of the above means everything just got even more expensive.
EDIT: Regardless of what your stance is on mortgage interest deductions, there's no doubt that the upcoming tax code changes threw cold water onto the housing market.
This wouldn't be such an issue if there was more supply in the first place, but here we are.