Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store • Hacker News Board

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#51

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:10 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #47

toomuchtodo wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is essentially what taking a large cut on your app platform is: rent seeking. It's your ecosystem, but it comes out of my pocket as the consumer (unless you're large enough to avoid, like Fortnite).

Discovery, ratings, etc., and managing payments are services with value, especially for small players with apps that don't have an established fan base before they are released for the paltform. Charging for these services is reasonable. Allowing people to get apps that don't need these services elsewhere is also a good idea.

Charging a reasonable fee for these services would be reasonable. 30% is extortion.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#52

Post by TremendousJudge » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:10 PM UTC

eximius wrote: post #21

Scarbutt wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"$50m that google won't earn" sounds less cool.

And yet the distinction is semantically important. I hate it when economists phrase missed opportunities as losses.

these are journalists, not economists

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#53

Post by baybal2 » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

Well, biggest apps are the ones strongarming platform vendors. Weixin, for example, threatened to quit apple app store because of in app purchases. Apple's Chinese C-levels were personally sent to Shenzhen appeasing Tencent when they began intentionally degrading weixin's functionality for users with Chinese IPs.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#54

Post by kodablah » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

annabellish wrote: post #16

plicense wrote: post #3

"Unlike Apple, which only allows apps to be downloaded from its own storefront, Google’s platform is more open." Oh the irony. Android is more open than iOS and yet its Google that EU found to be at fault with Android. How is this not a classic example that, if anything, Android provides a more open platform?

Apple aren't doing anything to prevent competition with their platform. Google are/were. It's that simple. iOS is a closed platform, and Android is a more open platform, but that's 100% orthogonal to Apple or Google's _business practices_. Closed platforms are not illegal, while anticompetitive behaviour is.

> Apple aren't doing anything to prevent competition with their platform.

This is a categorically false statement. I can point to a lot of places where Apple are doing quite a bit to prevent competition on their platform. I mean, browser engine choice is the easiest to see of dozens of ways Apple is doing something to prevent competition on their platform. Did you mean something else by your statement I do not understand?

Even if you mean "with their platform" vs "on their platform" as if users can go somewhere else, that's a far cry from "aren't doing anything" as they are in fact doing lots of things.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#55

Post by patmcguire » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:12 PM UTC

Skunkleton wrote: post #5

I can't imagine that 100% of the people interested in fortnite for android are willing to sideload the apk. I would be surprised if this wasn't having a net-negative impact on the total number of android users. I wonder if this is just to avoid paying a percentage on in-app purchases? What else could it be?

1) It's hard to overstate how much people love Fortnite. They can also lose ~25% of sales and still make the money without the cut. 2) It's not necessarily about the money, there's lots of other rules besides the 30% cut that might be the actual sticking point.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#56

Post by kevinh » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:13 PM UTC

lucisferre wrote: post #35

lucideer wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's (unfortunately) not illegal anywhere to have non-open platforms. It is illegal in the EU to use the dominant market position of one product to push another product in an anticompetitive manner. The latter is what Google got done for in the EU. You might think what Apple does is worse, and should be illegal, but that would be a separate hypothetical law.

Is this not what happens with the bundling of Mail, Calendar and Music in iOS and the fact that many default actions and integrations for these apps in iOS are not available to alternatives?

My understanding is that Apple does not have a large enough market share in the EU to be considered for similar violations.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#57

Post by gcburn2 » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:13 PM UTC

tzakrajs wrote: post #33

annabellish wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple aren't doing anything to prevent competition with their platform. Google are/were. It's that simple. iOS is a closed platform, and Android is a more open platform, but that's 100% orthogonal to Apple or Google's _business practices_. Closed platforms are not illegal, while anticompetitive behaviour is.

Can you explain to me how the Apple Maps limitation of Siri is not anti-competitive? I believe you are right but I am curious as a layman.

Apple is 24% of the smartphone market so anything they do on their their systems only affects that minority portion and isn't denying competitors access to the market.

Android on the other hand has a 74% share of smartphone market so anything they do impacts a majority of the market and could limit others access to the market.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#58

Post by phobosdeimos » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:13 PM UTC

I wonder how much Google regrets not being a walled garden like iOS.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#59

Post by ma2rten » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:14 PM UTC

gkoberger wrote: post #11

The framing of this article feels weird to me. Google offers a service (distribution), and it just so happens Fortnite doesn't need it. It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how. A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault. I mean, the fact that phon…

Is that actually the frameing of the article or just the headline? I feel like they just choose a borderline clickbait headline. Maybe they even wrote that headline after the fact.

Re: Google will lose $50M or more in 2018 from Fortnite bypassing the Play Store

#60

Post by minimaxir » Fri, Aug 10, 2018, 6:15 PM UTC

gkoberger wrote: post #11

The framing of this article feels weird to me. Google offers a service (distribution), and it just so happens Fortnite doesn't need it. It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how. A better way would be "Fortnite is big enough to bypass Google and still make $180MM", rather than acting like this is Google's fault. I mean, the fact that phon…

> It also completely ignores how much Fortnite will lose from people who don't install it because they can't figure out how.

Like Snapchat, this may be a case where deliberately counterintuitive behavior may actually help, since sideloading will now become "cool" for the teenagers/millennials it targets.