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Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

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Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#11

Post by jeromec »

risotto wrote: post #5
AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

I don't really know how it works to get into an IPO, but I'm very interested too. Netflix and Hulu represent the (slow but certain) change of video broadcasting.

I'm no expert, but it's simple. You just follow the company until the day their stock is available on the market, and buy. An interesting IPO was Google's. Usually, Wall St. banks get first shot at buying stock initially before it's available to the wider public. Google thumbed their nose at Wall St. and allowed anyone to buy their stock directly in a kind of dutch auction. The banks were furious at this insubordination and thought this would surely hurt Google's chance to have a successful IPO. Of course, their stock has done quite well. It was first available around $85 I believe, and it's now over $500 (it previously hit over $700). I wouldn't count on Hulu taking this route though. ;) I would, however, caution any investment foray into the stock market with my standard advice: never put in more than you are comfortable losing entirely.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#12

Post by mortuus »

hugh3 wrote: post #10
AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

I don't know. For me it seems like hulu has got significantly less useful over the last year, with the TV networks increasingly pulling their content off hulu and sticking it on their own sites. What are hulu's assets, aside from an apparently-shrinking number of licenses to stream content with a very small number of ads that nobody watches?

I bet they're doing better with the ads now that they are asking users if they are relevant. It would be interesting to see some numbers in this area.

Occasionally there are amusing ads on Hulu which I find enhance my viewing experience. Also, the ability to purchase exclusive advertising throughout the show almost guarantees some level of engagement from viewers.

A recent episode contained Microsoft Office 2010 ads which I found to be a little repetitive/annoying and yet I now know _a lot_ more about some of the potential benefits of upgrading.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#13

Post by stcredzero »

chrisa wrote: post #6
stcredzero wrote: post #3

I'm curious what an index consisting of stock whose IPO was mentioned on the front page of HN would look like?

There have been many IPOs announced here which aren't trading yet (or the IPO fell through), but here's a list of currently trading stocks which had an IPO mention here (I've probably missed some): Tesla, Green Dot, Orbitz, NetSuite, Alibaba.com, OpenTable, Rackspace, COMSCORE, LogMeIn, Qlik Technologies, Blinkx, SolarWinds

One should only count the IPOs that actually happen, I should think. One could base an index on buying a set amount of IPO stock at market a set time interval after the IPO. (3 business days?) I'm not sure how one should calculate the index in the even of a purchase. Should one "sell" a hypothetical amount of stock already in the index and use it to "buy" new stock?

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#14

Post by hugh3 »

mortuus wrote: post #12
hugh3 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. For me it seems like hulu has got significantly less useful over the last year, with the TV networks increasingly pulling their content off hulu and sticking it on their own sites. What are hulu's assets, aside from an apparently-shrinking number of licenses to stream content with a very small number of ads that nobody watches?

I bet they're doing better with the ads now that they are asking users if they are relevant. It would be interesting to see some numbers in this area. Occasionally there are amusing ads on Hulu which I find enhance my viewing experience. Also, the ability to purchase exclusive advertising throughout the show almost guarantees some level of engagement from viewers. A recent episode contained Microsoft Office 2010 ads…

Personally as soon as I see an ad I just mute the sound and switch to another tab. The helpful "Your program will resume in N seconds" message tells me how long I have to wait, and I can always skip back if I do happen to miss a few seconds of the actual program.

I suppose some people watch hulu while not sitting with the keyboard and mouse, though, so the ads may reach them.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#16

Post by olegkikin »

AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

Why are you considering buying in?

Are you familiar with their financial situation? Do you know how much money they make? I can't find any reliable numbers. This is the best I could find:

http://www.businessinsider.com/hulu-ceo-talks-ipo--here-are-...

So their net profits are estimated $70M this year (before tax, I assume).

Their growth rate is the only thing that justifies 2B valuation.

So my main point is - we don't know enough to decide whether they are worth that much.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#17

Post by mikeryan »

AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

So I'm a bit hesitant on Hulu's long term viability. They are extremely beholden to the networks and they are in a very scary position. They don't really hold the reins to their own destiny.

That being said... I think if you can get in early enough you can see some decent returns over the short term. I'd plan on about a 12 month window of getting out. I definitely wouldn't consider Hulu a buy and hold stock. The key here would be to watch out for Hulu being able to get some long term content deals (3+ years) with major networks. If they can lock in some content deals for a longer window they become much more viable for a long term run.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#18

Post by jakarta »

AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

I think Hulu is problematic because of how its ownership structure is set up, you have these studios/content providers that are going to want the majority of profits.

When we buy businesses, we are anticipating the future cash flows that are going to be generated by the business but here - it's very possible that content providers could strangle the cash flow that is available to shareholders in favor of their own pockets.

I've seen this happen a few times in the past where a company has a handful of very large customers/clients that also own equity in the business.

I looked a bit at this space and came out most positive about Liberty Starz (when it traded in the low $50s). They should benefit from a renegotiation with Netflix over streaming rates but they are also moving into original programming.

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#19

Post by pitdesi »

As is with the networks owning hulu, I can understand their incentive to make hulu a destination site, so atleast they get a chunk of the revenue and not a third part... as a separate public company they don't have this advantage so it's dependent on Hulu's ability to lock up long-term contracts, which I'm not sure they can do. This is a lot like Orbitz... originally started by a consortium of TV companies/air carriers then went public

Re: Report: Hulu Prepping To File For $2 Billion IPO

#20

Post by WalterBright »

AndrewJ wrote: post #2

I'm considering buying in. Anyone else?

Not me. I vastly prefer Netflix's content delivery system over Hulu's. Hulu's PC player is stuttery at hires, and has a "comb" like artifact in fast moving scenes, whereas Netflix's works fine on the same machine.
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