Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak • Hacker News Board

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#241

Post by JacobJans » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:09 PM UTC

Alex3917 wrote: post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

It should be noted that Facebook is pushing very hard for more meaningful interactions in the form of Groups. These groups are taking an increasingly large amount of the newsfeed. Facebook's stated goal with these groups is to create meaningful communities. I think, at least to some extent, they are succeeding with this goal.

Anecdotally, I know several people who say groups are the only thing keeping them on the network.

Interestingly, the groups also dovetail well into the continued growth of their ad platform; they tend to be interest based, so they help with ad targeting.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#242

Post by mrep » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:10 PM UTC

drb91 wrote: post #20

Alex3917 wrote: post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> with new technologies are going to come novel and compelling forms of social interaction. What, Web 3.0 will come with booze? While I am entertained by social media, I can't remember the last time I actually interacted with anyone in a substantive way. I'd much rather hit the bar and admit to myself that social media isn't very social.

You're interacting with us right now :)

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#243

Post by welly » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:11 PM UTC

CamperBob2 wrote: post #76

leon_sbt wrote: post #69

I really wish social media would "peak" to towards meeting people in real life semi-spontaneously. No profiles, no media uploads, no digital showboating. The best relationships I have with other people fall in this category. Real life,common interests,no digital uploads. Just add attributes of your geolocation and hobbies [biking, yoga,tensorflow,etc] or let it crawl your digital profile(s) to autobuild your attribut…

This does seem like a powerful idea. The problem of networking friends, family, and co-workers has more or less been solved, but the problem of putting together complete strangers with shared interests and coincident physical locality really hasn't even been attacked except in very constrained use cases (i.e., dating services). It's possible that the next big wave of social networks will be less "Facebook" and more "…

I'm not sure how you can say this when Meetup has been around for years. It does exactly what you describe.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#244

Post by mrep » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:15 PM UTC

willio58 wrote: post #19

paxy wrote: post #8

Seems like just a Snap peak to me. Article doesn't mention Instagram, its most direct competitor, or tons of other non-Facebook/Twitter social networks that are gaining popularity (Reddit, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitch, even WhatsApp, and many country-specific ones).

As a long time Snapchat user i know my friends at this point like Instagram more. Snapchat’s recent interface changes make little sense and sometimes serve to actively confuse the user experience. Classic case of fixing something that wasn’t broken.

Agreed, the "let's put stories in your personal message view interface" was absolutely terrible in my opinion. I use to watch stories all the time but now I hardly ever do because it is so annoying to find them.

Shit, I watch instagram stories now more often because those are easy to see and pick whos I want to watch.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#245

Post by jefe_ » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:16 PM UTC

stef25 wrote: post #227

trophycase wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically just the life cycle of nearly every corporation due to their incessant need to grow. Offer a great product and build a strong customer base, then slowly cut costs by worsening product or externalizing costs.

> their incessant need to grow This need is something I've never really understood and indeed is the root of all these problems. Zuck wouldn't be mister billionaire if he'd kept FB V1, but the world would have been better for it.

Growth or opportunities for growth must be present to convince buyers and investors to exchange more-liquid assets like cash for less-liquid assets like ownership. I part with $100 that I can spend anywhere for a share of stock that I hope will grow in value. Without opportunity for growth I have no incentive to part with my $100.

In the Facebook example, if Zuckerberg didn't want to grow Facebook, but wanted to still capitalize on it, he could have found a buyer and sold. The buyer would have been interested in growing it, and committed resources to doing so. Growing or Selling were the only two real options that would deliver Zuckerberg any gain. Once he decided not to sell, his only option was to deliver investors growth, so they would be willing to place their money in Facebook.

Another example would be an iOS app. There are plenty of apps in the app store where the developer built it, put it out there, charged $0.99 and that was it. If the app meets a need, this can work for a while, but eventually either demand will change or competitors will arise and the developer would either need to update/grow their app to maintain their revenue stream.

Growth is a fundamental piece of the financial system and eventually everyone decides to either grow, sell, or undercapitalize their asset.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#246

Post by criddell » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:24 PM UTC

gaius wrote: post #198

quotemstr wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chronological is just one ordering. Why are you so attached to it? Why must deviating from this one specific ranking approach lead to "chaos"? Algorithmic ranking is not evil. A tiny minority of people rail against algorithmic ranking, but the vast majority, as demonstrated by their engagement , prefer the algorithmic model. Should we let this tiny vocal minority dictate policy, data be damned?

the vast majority, as demonstrated by their engagement, prefer the algorithmic model All engagement measures is time spent on the site. Or how much people are prepared to tolerate.

Exactly this. I like Instagram but I wish they would optimize for how I want to use it, now how they want me to use it. I want to get on, see stuff from my friends and get off. I want to spend the least amount of time possible on the site and that's something that social media sites seem to think would be bad for them.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#247

Post by criddell » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:25 PM UTC

willio58 wrote: post #19

paxy wrote: post #8

Seems like just a Snap peak to me. Article doesn't mention Instagram, its most direct competitor, or tons of other non-Facebook/Twitter social networks that are gaining popularity (Reddit, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Twitch, even WhatsApp, and many country-specific ones).

As a long time Snapchat user i know my friends at this point like Instagram more. Snapchat’s recent interface changes make little sense and sometimes serve to actively confuse the user experience. Classic case of fixing something that wasn’t broken.

Snapchat's UI never made sense.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#248

Post by jMyles » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:26 PM UTC

dkrich wrote: post #115

How did this article make the New York Times? It’s awful. I listened to the entire Snap conference call and Spiegel directly attributed the drop in active users to the app redesign, a fact that wasn’t mentioned until 2/3 of the way through the article. Moreover, they gave no guidance for DAU projections, and merely said that historically fewer users are active in the third quarter than the second. This does not equat…

> How did this article make the New York Times? It’s awful.

The NYT is widely regarded to have turned a corner in the early 2000's, with the decision to put a color picture on the front and, in 2003, the cringe-inducing drum beat of the Iraq War.

It isn't the apex of journalism that it once was.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#249

Post by torstenvl » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:29 PM UTC

blitmap wrote: post #103

benwerd wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

I don't want to sound like an ass because I wholeheartedly agree with you. The experience is hollow. But you can't invest in things you can't quantify. You can't make money off of good vibes and authenticity without metrics. Snapchat and the like have thrown enormous money at understanding humans and have the best people in their fields to get this right. I think what worked 10 years ago no longer flies now. How we s…

But you can't invest in things you can't quantify. You can't make money off of good vibes and authenticity without metrics.

Sure you can. It's how Jobs turned Apple around. By all accounts, nobody had metrics saying consumers wanted less choice. No metrics suggested that a music player with "no wireless [and] less space than a nomad" would be a market leader. No metrics, as far as I'm aware, showed that there was a huge demand for Unix-like stability and command line tools but without the need for tinkering just to get a great UI and commercial software support.

It's difficult, certainly, and requires a nearly pathological drive to make your product as good and polished as possible - a drive that most people don't have today, including Tim Cook. But it can be done.

Re: Snap’s Drop in Active Users Could Signal a Social Media Peak

#250

Post by arsenico » Wed, Aug 08, 2018, 1:32 PM UTC

benwerd wrote: post #48

Alex3917 wrote: post #7

We might be at a local maximum, but we're nowhere near the peak. What we're seeing is an end of the race to the bottom. What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood.…

> What's happened is that most of the major social networks only hire and promote people who make decisions primarily based on analytics. As a result these sites no longer have any real communities or organic content, and have been completely hollowed out by math-friendly refrigerator magnet junkfood. _Exactly_ this. Rather than understanding their users as real humans, having unique insights about them, and building…

Do you have examples of such platforms? Also, your point is legit, but think about a vast number of online services which do not measure anything. A plethora of financial services (insurers, I won't even dare), and other rigid institutions.