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Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

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Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#241

This seems like an opportunity for all that currently-useless "smart home" tech that companies are so eager to sell. I don't need smartphone notifications from my internet connected washing machine to tell me when the laundry is done, because i know when i started it. But if i could load the washing machine and tell it to switch on when the cost of electricity dropped below a certain threshold, and it would actually…

At least for the specific case of washing you can get most of the benefit by moving to a time-of-use tariff and scheduling the washing machine to run during the off peak time.

(Washing machines do seem to use a surprisingly large amount of energy, particularly the ones that heat the water internally).

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#242
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital costs vs. marginal costs. You're going to build a $100M desalination plant and run it for three hours a day? That's a ton of money sitting idle most of the day, far more than what is recovered with zero operating costs. (This is called the utilization factor -- how long a piece of equipment is used vs. staying idle) Ideally you want useful processes with low capital costs and expensive marginal/energy costs.…

Desalinization isn't a good example for the reasons you say, but theptip writes below that heating water in residential and commercial settings might be better. Since water once heated stays hot for a good while in the insulated storage tank. Also buildings can be heated with hot water instead of forced air, typically through pipes in the floor. Which is nicer because it keeps your feet toasty and doesn't dry out the…

A great example of this is ice bank refrigeration, which literally uses a giant block of ice to cool air in a building.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_storage_air_conditioning

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#243

Price signals that go negative seem to really freak people out, but the real transition point is when the price dips below the marginal cost. If you're burning 1 dollar of fuel to generate one dollar worth of electricity then anything less is a signal to switch off. If your boiler has physical reasons for not turning off and on sharply then you can find yourself eating a loss in the short term to make money on averag…

There is another transition point at zero price, though - that's where it starts to make sense to vent the steam to the atmosphere instead of running it through the turbine.

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would only categorize car battery charging as very amenable to time shifting, and the various kinds of heating and cooling as slightly to moderately amenable. With refrigeration especially, you want to keep it in a very narrow temperature band. You could design a fridge that keeps an ice reservoir worth several hours, but without that you have very little ability to time shift.

With minor engineering changes, you can timeshift quite a bit. Consider hot water heaters. When power goes out, mine will keep water hot enough for a shower for 2 days. Two days. That means the design can be changed to heat water up to, say, 200 degrees, and then mix it with cold water to bring it down to 100 or so when demanded, and one should never need to run the heater more than a couple hours a day when power is…

Mix-down hot water heaters have been a thing since I've been alive (read: any commercial building) - it's not new or strange tech, just find a competent plumber and be willing to pay triple. Or DIY if you're that sort of guy - it's not exceedingly difficult.

If I were building a home today I'd "fake" this by simply using a standard tank water heater overspec'ed for my usage, heat that only with solar power on a intermittent basis, and put a tankless water-heater in-line for when/if the temp from the boiler gets too low. I've seen this implemented in more than a handful of higher end new construction myself and it seems like the least hacky/most supportable-by-mortals means of accomplishing it in the typical home.

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#245
Hi. I'm an Electrical Power Engineer and I analyzed electrical power energy pricing for three years after working a startup designing renewable stations.

I worked at the NYISO, which runs all the real time energy pricing markets on a realtime power market separate from the public stock market. The issue is this. NYISO, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO run real time energy markets throughout the U.S.

The idea is energy demand is met with energy supply obtained at the LBMP (locational based marginal price) from energy bid into the markets by energy suppliers who can meet demand in that area (transmission line losses are 10%) so there is an advantage to local/decentralized energy as the markets price congestion on these transmission lines.

Transmission lines are expensive (consider buying up all those little protesting family farms lawsuits buying individual land) and will melt or if run beyond 90% of their capacity which could leave an area stranded and blacked out by cascading over voltage conditions and blacking out the entire power grid.

So the tldr is energy can only move so far before it becomes uneconomic and needs to be synced with another power bus.

Now, you have politicians throwing free money in subsidies, grants or 20yr loans to Venture capital funds who contract renewable energy farms like wind for example. They get paid subsidies for the power they produce.

That sounds reasonable, but this is where it becomes unreasonable. Power is realtime and needs to respond to demand usage.

The other important thing to note is even if we did vote for high taxes in the u.s. to fund clean energy, clean energy is massively inefficient right now, and this doesn't provide an economic incentive to innovate in the industry. Quite the opposite. It makes the people raking up this free money hapoy sitting on their behinds, which brings me to my previous point,

The VCs get paid to produce power but not when it's needed. They could store this in a battery somewhere, but it turns out hurricane Sandy flooded a $50million battery that was supposed to back up all of long island. Ironic. Most investors tweaked out after this, and anyways, why would venture capitalists spend their free money on actually investing in making the technology better by buying batteries to save power being produced when it's not needed (a windy night on a mtn vs 4pm the next day when everyone is using power) when they are getting paid either way?

The money that isn't lining their pockets is subsidizing their cost of production bids into thr market. So wind plants in NY always bid in at $0 and they get the bid to produce Everytime.

Since every five minutes economic dispatch (Google "acopf ferc") creates a price signal based on demand needed and this can actually drive the price negative. The decision making tree here is based on a mixed integer programming algorithm for which the implementation is close sourced by an algorithm contracting company, which I personally think is an egregious injustice to stakeholders but that's just me.

Sounds great, how does it get worse?

Well, because not in my backyard policy, all of these wind plants are in upstate NY, so they have to waste and dissipate 10% of the power on the way down to NYC clogging the transmission lines, if they happen to be running when it's needed.

For the few companies truly interested in putting batteries on their plants, the NYISO, CAISO and ERCOT are decades behind implementing the legal economic markets for these generators to engage in to set up batteries at different entry points on the power grid than where they are supplying it.

Germany runs on 50% solar and does well, which clearly shows this is not a technical background but a legal, political and organizational one. However, the economic efficiency is not entirely revealed t us. Do you think the u.s. would vote for 50% taxes like they have in Germany?

Hope that helps and feel free reach out if you have any more questions.

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about reducing them, it's time-shifting them. The big electric consumers are A/C, heating, refrigeration, hot water heating, and car battery charging. All of those are very amenable to time shifting, and this shifting can be automated.

That's an interesting idea. The current residential home appliance setup is totally not amenable to it - I don't even know where my refrigerator & hot water heating on-switches are, I rarely touch the A/C & heating, and I'm certainly not going to remember the rates at a give time of day as a consumer (I likely wouldn't even be home or awake when they're lowest). But if rates actually varied throughout the day, I coul…

I'm on a time-of-use tariff, and I use the timer on my washing machine to have it finish just before the end of the very cheap overnight rate. That alone has made a pretty big difference.

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#248
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's reasonable. The headline says it's spreading though.

It's spreading because the market is oversatured with renewables because of government subsidies. A sound investor would stop (or go bankrupt) when the negatives outweigh the positives.

Subsidies seem to be on the decline. In fact, I was just reading that due to the Chinese government cutting back, people are predicting PV prices will plummet in the next year.

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#249
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital costs vs. marginal costs. You're going to build a $100M desalination plant and run it for three hours a day? That's a ton of money sitting idle most of the day, far more than what is recovered with zero operating costs. (This is called the utilization factor -- how long a piece of equipment is used vs. staying idle) Ideally you want useful processes with low capital costs and expensive marginal/energy costs.…

Desalinization isn't a good example for the reasons you say, but theptip writes below that heating water in residential and commercial settings might be better. Since water once heated stays hot for a good while in the insulated storage tank. Also buildings can be heated with hot water instead of forced air, typically through pipes in the floor. Which is nicer because it keeps your feet toasty and doesn't dry out the…

There is a program to provide that feedback. I already own an enabled water heater for example.

https://smartgrid.ieee.org/ http://www.whatissmartgrid.org/smart-grid-101

Re: Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid

#250
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding the cloudyness... Has anyone ever tried to levitate photovoltaics into the stratosphere? Blimpy-space-elevator kinda thing? Is such a thing even possible?

I feel like it's far easier just to transmit it 1000 miles or so from a sunnier place.

Not necessarily, because 1000 miles of a transmission line is a lot of metal, land, construction, and electricity losses.

Unfortunately, a power station at 100-200 miles above Earth, where sunshine is eternal, and which is relatively accessible, will not stay above the same spot, and GEO is way high (22k miles) and thus even more expensive to build at (and already pretty crowded nevertheless).

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