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Taking Tesla Private

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231–240 of 290 posts

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#231
post #90

No external financing might be necessary , because virtually all Tesla shareholders today (i.e., people who are net-long the stock) are true long-term believers in Musk's vision unconcerned with the company's short-term financial issues. (People who are concerned with financial issues are either avoiding the stock or shorting it.) These true-believer shareholders will want to hang on to their shares as the company go…

I need to double check it, but some of the largest institutional shareholders, like Vanguard Group, could only hold positions in public companies, so they will have to sell. Retail investors can decide to go private, but tesla free float is very small, so they don't matter much in a grand scheme of things.

Yes, that's true for Vanguard. But others, like Fidelity, can and will allow shareholders to hold private shares in their brokerage acccounts, sometimes through special purpose vehicles created for the purpose.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#232

While there's some good reasons here, I can't help but think this is more an emotional reaction on Elon's part, to the shorting and general negativity around the company.

I think it's uncharitable to call it purely an emotional reaction. While that is certainly a component, I think this is actually one of the best mission-oriented strategic decisions Elon has made in a while. The shorting and general negativity around the company are a morale drain on a scale that few companies have ever experienced before, let alone any companies that push their employees as hard as Tesla. I have fri…

> I think it's uncharitable to call it purely an emotional reaction.

I agree. I didn't call it one.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has also received a substantial amount of government support, including state and federal EV rebates for buyers of its cars (roughly $300 million), an extremely large handout from the state of Nevada ($1.3 billion), a large handout from New York ($1 billion), handouts from US Government ($500 million), carbon credits ($520 billion as of 2015). Collectively, Tesla's government support actually exceeds the govern…

> [GM has] since repaid those loans...though GM discharged much of its loan through bankruptcy. What did you mean to say here? That GM eliminated (not repaid) the loan through bankruptcy? Or that GM discharged the loan then repaid it anyway?

Bankruptcy means, among other things, selling any remaining valuables to pay lenders, full or in part.

So in theory a loan can be completely paid off through a bankruptcy. In the case of GM, it did not happen, IIRC.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#234
On the one hand, the challenges of being a public company cited here are the same ones facing all public companies, and they do quite well. On the other hand, there's a ton of negative attention on the street that's probably a huge distraction.

I do think Tesla will be better served as a private company as long as Musk is CEO. He isn't public CEO material.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#235
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short sellers aren‘t evil. They are a mechanism how the public trade exchange improves its estimate how much a company is worth. After the very ugly financial news over the last months (but probably true — nobody has credibly refuted them), it‘s not hard to see why Musk and the less rational part of his supporters would love to see short sellers disappear, and „punished“.

Shorting is fine when you're predicting the stock will go down, it starts leaning towards evil when you try and damage the company to cause the price to go down. Billions on the line create a nasty incentive and a publicly traded company is more at risk of negative attacks when they're not yet profitable.

There is zero evidence of shorts trying to damage the company.

Every time when TSLA stock was down last year it was some material news regarding missing Model 3 production estimates previously provided by Elon Musk himself or something like that.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It only falls if Elon is bluffing. He’s guaranteed $420 / share.

He’s not guaranteeing anything. He hasn’t mentioned financing to do this, and it’s not a small amount of money to raise. Shareholder approval isn’t a given either. It’s probable that he’d get the votes if he showed the financing necessary for a $420 stock price, but it’s not a guarantee.

If can demonstrate guaranteed financing for this deal from outside investors at $420/share, then he just tweeted material news about his company, and he had all the rights to do so.

If he can't prove guaranteed financing for this deal, that's securities fraud and SEC investigation is the next step of this drama. Imagine... well, SNAP CEO tweeting "Some rich folks are going to take us private at $50 per share lmao ayee, cover your shorts". This is a market manipulation.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going private, wouldn't it be a bigger distraction for everyone working at Tesla to wonder whether they can find a private buyer or not for their shares and what their shares are actually worth?

I can't imagine anything more distracting than a big number that goes up and down minute to minute changing the value of the equity they hold

I feel like it mainly does that because Musk fails to set realistic expectations and then goes on tantrums whenever someone is negative about the outlook.

I admire his ambition and he is great for Tesla in general but as far as managing a public company his approach hasn't been very successful.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#238
post #37
post #2

I think it's a great move. Prevents short term greedy shareholder strategies.

By paying a large premium to the all time high? If he's worried about the stock going down, paying more for it doesn't make a ton of sense. You should wait until the stock is down and then take it private.

By paying a 20% premium he's ensuring that the short sellers will need to buy shares at the premium price guaranteeing that they've lost at least 20% of what they've gambled.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be true, but the stability comes from it being privately held -- the SpaceX stock doesn't swing wildly every time some news about their competition with Boeing is released.

A profitable company has no need to be excessively concerned about its stock price. Of course, at some point, shareholders might consider putting on pressure, but that doesn't really seem to have happened even with Tesla. And in closely held companies, that kind of pressure is much stronger — it's not like Musk has $70B of spare change in his couch pillows, so he'll always have to deal with co-owners.

Most importantly, the co-owners are less likely to ask why a particular step to maximize profits in this quarter hasn't been done. To say nothing of activist shareholders who theoretically could sue; such things killed a few still-profitable companies, and Tesla isn't one yet.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#240
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By paying a large premium to the all time high? If he's worried about the stock going down, paying more for it doesn't make a ton of sense. You should wait until the stock is down and then take it private.

By paying a 20% premium he's ensuring that the short sellers will need to buy shares at the premium price guaranteeing that they've lost at least 20% of what they've gambled.

Ah yes, overpay so you can stick it to the big mean short sellers. Might as well go for 50% premium with that logic!
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