Taking Tesla Private • Hacker News Board

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#161

Post by mythz » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:08 PM UTC

arvind3199 wrote: post #70

mythz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is no bluff: > Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026914941004001280

Yes he is, Where do you get 66 billion $. Investor support dosen't mean he has the financing. Don't quote a tweet, get some real sources. "And yet it also left many questions unanswered, namely how Musk -- who owns almost 20 percent of the company -- would be able to come up with the $66 billion necessary to complete the transaction. At $420 a share, Tesla would have an enterprise value of about $82 billion including…

That's an announcement from the CEO of Tesla. The details are still forthcoming but there is no greater source.

$66B is inaccurate, Tesla would only need to buy from the shareholders that wish to sell at $420.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#162

Post by _uhtu » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:08 PM UTC

joezydeco wrote: post #79

synaesthesisx wrote: post #14

As an investor since 2012 I think Tesla would be far more operationally efficient private. Also a bit of schadenfreude but I've personally enjoyed watching Wall Street shorts collectively lose hundreds of millions of dollars over this.

Might be in the tens of billions before this is all said and done. (~34 million short shares outstanding * $420/share = ~14 billion dollars to cover. Is my math wrong?)

Wouldn't that assume that every short seller would lose $420 per share? They probably purchased their shorts at like ~$350 per share, so they'd only stand to lose 420-350=$70 per share, correct?

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#163

Post by stale2002 » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:08 PM UTC

arvind3199 wrote: post #20

He is bluffing trying to squeeze the shorts, no one rational can value it 82B unless it was waymo level tech.

This thought occurred to me as well. And if this really all is a bluff to raise the share price, and to buy his company a couple extra months of runway, it would be the marketing manipulation crime of the decade.

I'm talking Enron level stuff, where Musk gets sent to jail.

"Enron Musk" has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#164

Post by gamblor956 » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #98

patrickaljord wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't SpaceX success due to the fact that most of its orders come from the US government while Tesla has to compete in the free market and isn't that successful there?

The free market of automobile manufacturing in which the USA has propped up both GM and Ford, and in the past Chrysler? The one in which the Japanese government is carefully intertwined with their automotive industry? The government is a customer of space x but they still compete against other companies for that business.

Tesla has also received a substantial amount of government support, including state and federal EV rebates for buyers of its cars (roughly $300 million), an extremely large handout from the state of Nevada ($1.3 billion), a large handout from New York ($1 billion), handouts from US Government ($500 million), carbon credits ($520 billion as of 2015). Collectively, Tesla's government support actually exceeds the government's bailout of Ford by several orders of magnitude...

GM and Ford were propped up by the government during the Great Recession to protect tens of thousands of jobs. Both companies have since repaid those loans...though GM discharged much of its loan through bankruptcy.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#165

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

peeters wrote: post #93

take4 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> CNBC reports that none of the Wall Street banks it contacted were aware of any transaction or had committed to funding a leveraged buyout of Tesla.

So there's the real story. Who is this financer (or group) with ~40 billion in capital that is willing to bet long on Tesla? That's really interesting to me, if Musk is being truthful here.

[deleted]

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#166

Post by mehblahwhatevs » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

explorigin wrote: post #154

Elon fashions himself a super hero: Batteries to Australia and Puerto Rico, A pledge to fix Flint's water quality and a submarine to rescue the boys in the cave. Super heroes rock when they really do super things, but Elon flew off the handle with the last one when he called the master diver a pedophile all because his idea wasn't the one they used. Having someone at the helm that is volatile like this is bad for a p…

I was thinking the same thing.

Usually his tweets send stock down, this one sent it up but may be in violation of SEC rules.

I imagine shareholders must be getting pissed whenever he goes off on a Trump like tirade on Twitter.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#167

Post by _0w8t » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #60

nostromo wrote: post #46

This feels like a rushed announcement. First you throw out a tweet, later in the day you halt trading, then you make an announcement that you're "considering" something major, but that you haven't decided yet. Not only that, but Musk seems a tad bit paranoid. He's regularly talking about all those evil greedy short-term traders that attack the company -- which is a little silly since traders have given Tesla a larger…

I think he is more concerned about actual espionage, sabotage, manufactured bad press etc, than the stock price manipulation. That maybe indeed be paranoia or maybe he has seen it happening enough.

Huge shorts positions give strong insensitive to pay for sabotage or other real harm to the company.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#168

Post by _ea1k » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

avree wrote: post #4

Guess Elon isn't too confident about being able to deliver the earnings he promised on.

Either that or he has realized that the focus on consistent profitability over the next 1-2 years will significantly impact the company's long term prospects.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#169

Post by toomuchtodo » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #164

gameswithgo wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The free market of automobile manufacturing in which the USA has propped up both GM and Ford, and in the past Chrysler? The one in which the Japanese government is carefully intertwined with their automotive industry? The government is a customer of space x but they still compete against other companies for that business.

Tesla has also received a substantial amount of government support, including state and federal EV rebates for buyers of its cars (roughly $300 million), an extremely large handout from the state of Nevada ($1.3 billion), a large handout from New York ($1 billion), handouts from US Government ($500 million), carbon credits ($520 billion as of 2015). Collectively, Tesla's government support actually exceeds the govern…

> Tesla has also received a substantial amount of government supporting, including EV rebates for buyers of its cars.

All automakers are eligible for this support...if they build electric cars. Ford and Tesla are the only automakers to have never declared bankruptcy. These are tiresome arguments that hold no water.

Re: Taking Tesla Private

#170

Post by Keyframe » Tue, Aug 07, 2018, 8:09 PM UTC

Camillo wrote: post #12

If Tesla announces this (causing the stock to rise, since the suggested price is much higher than the current price), and then doesn't go through with it, is it considered stock manipulation? I don't mean to accuse them, I'm sure they covered their bases, but I'd like to understand how it works.

SEC has a rule for that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEC_Rule_10b-5 and https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rule10b5.asp#ixzz5NWNPZ...

Examples of offenses that would violate rule 10b-5 would be: executives making false statements in order to drive up share prices ... interestingly, it's as serious as ... or a company hiding huge losses or low revenues with creative accounting practices.