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The world is losing the war against climate change

economist.com

211–220 of 325 posts

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#211
post #151

The war is unwinnable. Global warming can only be reversed if we stop all Co2 and methane emissions, and then start net carbon capture to reduce current co2 levels. Its just not going to happen. No one ever says that out loud. There is noise about reducing carbon emissions - in reality this is a lot of argument about reducing carbon emissions in wealthy countries. We can't even do that. Meanwhile even my greeny-lefty…

The war is perfectly winnable, but not within the context of a democracy. Here you would need the equivalent of a state of emergency, lasting for perhaps a century, to force the necessary changes upon an unwilling public, who are quite happy to sort trash into three piles, stop using straws, or engage in other such cargo-cult behaviours, but not to give up their iPhones, 2nd cars or annual vacations.

Ironically, a country such as China is much better equipped than the US or Europe to handle this kind of emergency. Once the leading figures become convinced of what needs to be done, they can implement the necessary measures in full and overnight, and ensure the necessary public support via the state-controlled educational system and media.

In the West, we are reduced to endless haggling, as lobbies strive to convert the emergency into additional demand for new "green" product lines or for bogus geoengineering solutions, and political representatives end up implementing toothless half-measures that achieve nothing.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The politicians largely reflect the people they govern. I don't think we can expect much better from them as compared to the general population...not to mention of course the vested interests and lobbying capability of corporations. And again corporations have shareholders, employees, etc...

> The politicians largely reflect the people they govern Is that really true though? The statement is so vague.

In this regard it's absolutely true - the vast majority of people clearly are not willing to undertake meaningful lifestyle sacrifices to fight against climate change.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been looking into carbon capture recently because it's going to be vital to slowing down the warming (and buying us another 50 years for the transition). What surprised me is that I can cover double my two-car-owning European family's carbon footprint via planting trees in the UK at an annual cost of around $400. It'll cost half that to do the same in a developing country. We need a global carbon tax and we need…

But it's not just planting the tree, right? It's taking land that currently has no tree, reserving it for the tree, and guaranteeing that the land & tree will remain intact for a nominal period of time, possibly indefinitely? Trees are cheap. Fertile tree-growing land not currently used for trees: not so much.

You might be interested in The Queen's Commonwealth Canopy: https://queenscommonwealthcanopy.org/

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#214

If you look at global power sector emissions from 1998 to 2018, you'll see that while we have dramatically improved upon the energy intensity (energy/capita) and even are making improvements on carbon intensity (carbon/capita), but the sad reality is this: we are still using around 35% coal power in 2018, the same as we did in 1998. And the power sector is the easiest sector to decarbonize, by the way. If you look at…

I've been looking into carbon capture recently because it's going to be vital to slowing down the warming (and buying us another 50 years for the transition). What surprised me is that I can cover double my two-car-owning European family's carbon footprint via planting trees in the UK at an annual cost of around $400. It'll cost half that to do the same in a developing country. We need a global carbon tax and we need…

Is carbon offset by afforestation effective though? I had read that we can't counter the emissions by planting trees alone. I'm definitely interested in doing this and covering more than double of my footprint

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#215

I am a little out of the loop and so I have a few questions: 1. At what point in time can we arrest ocean temperature rise purely by reducing emissions? 2. Even if we stopped further rise in temperature, is the current temperature (land and ocean) sustainable, or is a chain reaction already underway that will increasingly lead to more and more turbulent weather? 3. Are there viable ways to extract greenhouses gasses…

I can only speak to some of your questions.

2. Well the current temperature is somewhat sustainable because we haven't yet destroyed the Earth.. but that's not really what it's about. The condition of the Earth is not the present temperature, but the present condition of the atmosphere which is becoming increasingly filled with these gases; higher temperatures are merely the consequence. The higher temperatures themselves don't contribute much to a snowballing effect, except in the case of wildfires. If tomorrow, we magically stopped emitting a net positive amount of greenhouse gases, the Earth would stabilize and return to a previous cooler state because of carbon absorption from forests and so on, but this is impossible because it would require a commitment from 7 billion people.

3. The are plenty of ways to extract gases directly but many are fairly costly and only a few hold promise of being economically profitable. Extraction of the CO2 (and other gases like methane) would certainly lower temperatures, as they trap the heat in the atmosphere that would otherwise radiate back into space. The most clear empirical evidence we have of this on a planetary scale is Venus, which has a truly hellish climate because of it's C02 atmosphere.

5. This can't be a serious question. But, actually, there is the idea of iron fertilization of the ocean where dumping granulated iron into presently lifeless tracts of would cause massive blooms in ocean life and would have a substantial carbon capturing effect. It's likely to be a very cheap solution, relative to the outsize effect it would have.

6. Biggest benefit to warming is an increase in arable land as the climate is warmer towards the poles, which should more than make up for some losses to desertification. The other benefit is increased crop yields due to more CO2 in the air. Not much of a consolation tbh.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#216
post #97

Is there even a "war" against climate change? If there is, it's barely gotten started. For the most part, politicians are at best apathetic and at worst, actively hostile to the idea of "fighting" such a war.

Not in the US. The majority of the country isn't to the point of believing that climate change poses a serious threat, and among non-Democrats attitudes towards climate change are actually regressing: https://news.gallup.com/poll/231530/global-warming-concern-s...

Those who haven't experienced it directly might underestimate how effective the right has been at tying anti-environment beliefs to political identity, even among people who are highly educated in the sciences and should know better.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#217
Hum...

Solar prices are comparable to coal nowadays, and getting lower by the month. Besides, where is that investment in solar or wind stalled? I haven't seen any place like that. Instead, I only see people talking more and more about solar, even to the point that some want to get off-grid for economical reasons (I don't agree with their calculations).

I would really like to see some study about how long will solar power need to ramp-up until coal becomes uneconomical. I would also like to see some study about how much oil, gas and coal we can actually use, with what levels of energy returns.

Instead, here it is that sensationalist piece based on basically no data at all, claiming the end of the world... At the economist.com. Journalism used to be better.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#218
post #18
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? What does that mean? Habitability is not a binary thing.

Actually, it is. For most mammals a temperature over around 31C at 100% humidity is lethal after no more than six hours of exposure. Go beyond that and everyone dies.

I haven't seen any projected warming scenario where it'd be 31C everywhere. There's a gradual change in habitability as the habitable zone becomes smaller and smaller.

Perhaps our descendants will be farming Antarctica.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#219
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We were told that Fukushima will NEVER happen. So yeah, some people are very bad at evaluating risks.

Well, what happened? Last I heard the outcome is some land lost, no immediate deaths, and about 100 deaths due to cancer over the next 50 years. A tragedy, but not apocalyptic. (And minuscule compared to the deaths and destruction from the earthquake/tsunami itself.)

> A private think tank says the total cost of the Fukushima disaster could reach ¥70 trillion ($626 billion), or more than three times the government’s latest estimate.

But I guess you'll say that $626 bil is just 15% of Japan's GDP, totally manageable over the long term.

I'm sure the communities where future nuclear plants are to be build will love this argument: "if disaster strikes, remember, it's for the greater good"

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#220
post #2

Legitimate question: will there be a point where we speak about this war in the past tense, as in `The world lost the war against climate change'? How do we determine that turning point?

When we accept the change instead of fight to prevent/reverse it.
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