Live data from Hacker News

The world is losing the war against climate change

economist.com

201–210 of 325 posts

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#201
In the US we've been having this "debate" and talking about the "war" since at least the late 1970s. Even that long ago it was nearly impossible in our country to garner the political will to fight climate change.

Our question now is, how do we best stall the inevitable? But the political will is still sorely lacking. The idea of a globally effective Paris Accord with teeth is laughable.

From the NYT Magazine: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/clim...?

The scientists knew the consequences of warming: "When, at Charney’s request, Hansen programmed his model to consider a future of doubled carbon dioxide, it predicted a temperature increase of four degrees Celsius. That was twice as much warming as the prediction made by the most prominent climate modeler, Syukuro Manabe, whose government lab at Princeton was the first to model the greenhouse effect. The difference between the two predictions — between warming of two degrees Celsius and four degrees Celsius — was the difference between damaged coral reefs and no reefs whatsoever, between thinning forests and forests enveloped by desert, between catastrophe and chaos."

When the dire climate forecasts were established science, the foremost American scientists, senators, industry representatives, etc met to discuss what to do about it. They started their conference - in 1980 - with this:

“We might start out with an emotional question,” proposed Thomas Waltz, an economist at the National Climate Program. “The question is fundamental to being a human being: Do we care?”

This provoked huffy consternation. “In caring or not caring,” said John Laurmann, a Stanford engineer, “I would think the main thing is the timing.” It was not an emotional question, in other words, but an economic one: How much did we value the future?

We have less time than we realize, said an M.I.T. nuclear engineer named David Rose, who studied how civilizations responded to large technological crises. “People leave their problems until the 11th hour, the 59th minute,” he said. “And then: ‘Eloi, Eloi, Lama Sabachthani?’ ” — “My God, my God, why hast thou forsaken me?” It was a promising beginning, Pomerance thought. Urgent, detailed, cleareyed. The attendees seemed to share a sincere interest in finding solutions. They agreed that some kind of international treaty would ultimately be needed to keep atmospheric carbon dioxide at a safe level. But nobody could agree on what that level was."

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#202
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Letting them stay in the forest is nice, but you would quickly run out of room. No you wouldn't. There is massive deforestation all over the world. If we planted so many trees to offset carbon emissions that we accidentally solved that problem, that would be a huge environmental benefit on its own, and it would hold an enormous amount of carbon.

>There is massive deforestation all over the world. And that deforestation is to make room for other things, mostly farms. As the world population continues to explode, the amount of land that can be allocated to forests quickly decreases.

[deleted]

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's the cheapest and easiest plan by far, It’s the simplest plan, but I’ll argue we are seeing it’s pretty difficult as it requires changing the behavior of a lot of people, if even just a little abd/or changing policies of a lot of countries. I’m not saying plan A should be somehow abandoned or slowed (so perhaps B is a bad name because it’s typically used when A is abandoned) But it should be complemented. We sh…

>a simple and cheap plan that is politically impossible. If it's impossible to execute the cheap and simple plan because of political obstacles, we just have to change politics. It's also simple and cheap once you know that money has nothing to do in politics.

Who are “we”? The US? I’m pretty optimistic about the US actually, at least for the next administration. I worry more about getting big cuts from China/India/Indonesia/Bangladesh/...

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#204

I am a little out of the loop and so I have a few questions: 1. At what point in time can we arrest ocean temperature rise purely by reducing emissions? 2. Even if we stopped further rise in temperature, is the current temperature (land and ocean) sustainable, or is a chain reaction already underway that will increasingly lead to more and more turbulent weather? 3. Are there viable ways to extract greenhouses gasses…

1. I'm not sure - 20 years ago maybe?

2. No, not anymore, in the current situation emission reduction is about reducing the future consequences, not about preventing them. The current accumulated greenhouse gases are sufficient to continue warming for some time even if we didn't emit anything starting today, and also there are two positive feedback loops started already - methane emissions from melting permafrost and increased Arctic sunlight absorption because there's more dark water and less reflective ice.

3. Maybe - it likely could help, but it'd need a lot of investment and we're not ready to even start

4. Yes, probably.

5. Only if we had a magical source of massive icecubes, but we don't.

6. Depends on your viewpoint - if humans get eliminated, then after a few million years there might be more biodiversity, that may count as a benefit to some.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#205
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if future generations will think people were even serious about solving the problem. In this respect the war was lost long ago. The vast majority of people who believe climate change will have large negative consequences make no major changes to their lifestyles. As someone who rides bike for transportation largely to save money and stay in shape (I think climate change is a lost cause), the environmental cr…

The uncomfortable reality is that 7 billion people can’t all live like Americans (or Europeans). Extracting the resources necessary for everyone to live like Americans would be very bad for the environment. The effective action is to greatly reduce the number of births worldwide. It seems to me all other options are not effective.

> effective action is to greatly reduce the number of births worldwide.

Unbelievable.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#206
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been looking into carbon capture recently because it's going to be vital to slowing down the warming (and buying us another 50 years for the transition). What surprised me is that I can cover double my two-car-owning European family's carbon footprint via planting trees in the UK at an annual cost of around $400. It'll cost half that to do the same in a developing country. We need a global carbon tax and we need…

Hell, considering the UK is heavily deforested, probably a lot of people who would appreciate those new trees too.

This is one thing I really notice about the UK. Lots of people here think featureless green fields == nature, which is a shame.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#208
Improved education and quality of living tends to have an inverse proportion with birth rates.

With that in mind, maybe the way to win the "war" could be killing poverty: No more poor people, and the population is going to decrease. Looking at Japan, according to the estimates and trends, they would no longer be around anymore in roughly 100 years.

So, we still would go extinct (eventually, in a long time from now), but the planet will keep on living, so there's that.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#209
post #151

The war is unwinnable. Global warming can only be reversed if we stop all Co2 and methane emissions, and then start net carbon capture to reduce current co2 levels. Its just not going to happen. No one ever says that out loud. There is noise about reducing carbon emissions - in reality this is a lot of argument about reducing carbon emissions in wealthy countries. We can't even do that. Meanwhile even my greeny-lefty…

honest but silly question: since the only way to deal with the problem is to also implement carbon capture to deal with the existing excess, would the same carbon capture mechanism be also able to cope with the rest of the world continuing to emit carbon at present rates?

Yeah I've thought about this - the best carbon capture system would take CO2 and turn it into pure carbon - or something like coal. So it does seem simpler not to burn coal in the first place. Alternatively if we can grow forests then bury them that could work too.

I don't think we can ever have such an efficient carbon capture system in the forseeable future, but we should really be researching this much more than we are.

Re: The world is losing the war against climate change

#210
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been looking into carbon capture recently because it's going to be vital to slowing down the warming (and buying us another 50 years for the transition). What surprised me is that I can cover double my two-car-owning European family's carbon footprint via planting trees in the UK at an annual cost of around $400. It'll cost half that to do the same in a developing country. We need a global carbon tax and we need…

>What surprised me is that I can cover double my two-car-owning European family's carbon footprint via planting trees in the UK at an annual cost of around $400. It'll cost half that to do the same in a developing country. Then what happens when the trees are fully grown? Processing them for industry would just reintroduce the carbon back into the environment. Letting them stay in the forest is nice, but you would qu…

Adding a bit of iron to the ocean -- the same as is released by a large volcanic eruption -- could do the trick.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/07/r...

Post reply on HN