Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland • Hacker News Board

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#21

Post by thwawayjuju » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 7:55 PM UTC

21 wrote: post #4

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land.

Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head of states like the US president have traditionally spent more time on foreign policy. All leaders think about their legacy. If Xi can reclaim Taiwan, he will be remembered for decades. That is powerful motivation for any leader, especially one that is elderly.

The US is currently run by a lunatic. Are you so sure Trump would impose sanctions? Most of his decisions are made in a fit of rage, rather than thoughtful thinking. The fact he met with Kim, should tell you something about his decision making. The problem is Americans has played this big brother role for the last 50 years, but now there is a potential contender on the playground. I am not sure the US can do much here considering China is cash rich to withstand any sanctions you impose on them. China can use Trumps playbook too if they wanted like subsidising farmers, but they haven’t cause they don’t need to.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#22

Post by dogma1138 » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 8:04 PM UTC

thwawayjuju wrote: post #21

21 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land. Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head o…

The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#23

Post by thwawayjuju » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 8:10 PM UTC

dogma1138 wrote: post #22

thwawayjuju wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land. Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head o…

The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.

I said strategic importance to China. Not the USA. South Korea, Japan, and Guam are a drop in the bucket compared to China in terms of military might and economy, unfortunately.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#24

Post by sushid » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 9:03 PM UTC

zapita wrote: post #6

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is of strategic importance to the US and Europe. For that reason alone I think Taiwan will always enjoy better protection than a relatively unimportant participant in the world economy like Crimea.

Isn't that until the Chinese play catch up and copy all the technological competitive advantage the West currently enjoys?

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#25

Post by Giorgi » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 9:20 PM UTC

zapita wrote: post #6

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is of strategic importance to the US and Europe. For that reason alone I think Taiwan will always enjoy better protection than a relatively unimportant participant in the world economy like Crimea.

Even more interesting for China then, Crimea had just a warm-water port

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#26

Post by dogma1138 » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 9:22 PM UTC

thwawayjuju wrote: post #23

dogma1138 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.

I said strategic importance to China. Not the USA. South Korea, Japan, and Guam are a drop in the bucket compared to China in terms of military might and economy, unfortunately.

Those all host US military bases, Guam isn’t even a nation it’s a US territory.

I suggest you look up US deployments and see why Taiwan while is of a huge cultural, political and ideological significance isn’t that much of a strategic significance in a conflict there are a lot of assets in theater already and the US while being a military backer of Taiwan limits its presence and support in order to never make them significant enough to justify an invasion.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#27

Post by whatyoucantsay » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 9:51 PM UTC

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

Highly unlikely. Ever since the US Congress passed a Taiwan Relations Act, military defense of Taiwan is a enshrined in law. Furthermore, Taiwan is a fully democratic nation with a population slightly larger than that of Australia.

The entire crux of post WWII US geopolitical strategy rests on a promise to defend Japan, Korea the Philippines, Taiwan and various other territories in exchange for those territories not pursuing nuclear weapons or aggressive military forces of their own. In the very unlikely even that the US chose not to defend Taiwan despite the TRA, Japan, Korea, Thailand and half a dozen other neighboring countries would nuclearize within weeks, days or even hours.

This would be a nightmare scenario not only from the US perspective but also from China's.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#28

Post by whatyoucantsay » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 9:58 PM UTC

sonnyblarney wrote: post #14

microdrum wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the policy, and that is what will happen. This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.

"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. " Oh gosh, not quite. This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats. If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights…

If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan.

> Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.

You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#29

Post by whatyoucantsay » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 10:02 PM UTC

21 wrote: post #4

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

> EU will likely join in.

Doubtful. The EU, and France in particular, has been selling China weapons for over a decade.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#30

Post by sonnyblarney » Sun, Aug 05, 2018, 10:26 PM UTC

whatyoucantsay wrote: post #28

sonnyblarney wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. " Oh gosh, not quite. This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats. If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights…

If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan. > Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. prop…

No. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not directly threaten Japan or Korea as China has never had any claim or interest there, furthermore, it would massively increase Asian-US/EU ties. It would rock the world and everyone would be setting up new military ties to ensure border integrity.

It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really.

"You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.