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Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

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Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#11

Post by DownVoteFuckers »

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

You totally missed the point. If Taiwan and mainland China unite, it will be more like the East Germany and West Germany reunified in 1990. Taiwan was part of China historically. The people in Taiwan are Chinese people. It will be only a question of time when Taiwan returns to China.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#12

Post by [deleted] »

microdrum wrote: post #10
Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the policy, and that is what will happen. This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.

[deleted]

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#13

Post by rtkwe »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #7
Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

I doubt it. Russia really needs Crimea, a matter of NATSEC as they have no warm water ports https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/03/russias... . Russia was already in the doghouse so it's like killing one more person after you've killed 5 others. China on the other hand, knows that Taiwan isn't going anywhere and it's not worth war, embargoes and what not. IMO they are patient... As for Crimeans, who kno…

On the other hand much of the world is more dependent on China's cheap manufacturing and products than anyone was for Russian products which makes sanctioning (or going to war with) them much harder. It'd definitely be interesting to see how far the One China but not really policy that most of the world follows will stretch if/when China actually makes an Over move against Taiwan.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#14

Post by sonnyblarney »

microdrum wrote: post #10
Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the policy, and that is what will happen. This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.

"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. "

Oh gosh, not quite.

This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats.

If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights ensue, US participates, maybe some naval firing back and forth, Chinese marines found on Taiwan, US marines land as well, China does electronic attacks, US response.

But ...

In an unlikely 'Blitzkrieg' scenario, whereby China launches a very swift and unanticipated attack on Taiwan - say: multi-beachead marine landing, paratroopers, 5th column destruction of comms equipment, drone and cruise missile attacks, total electronic-warfare shutdown - and the Chinese have militarily occupied most of the major and important installations in say, 48 hours ...

Do you think the US is going to ramp up 500K soldiers and 'invade Taiwan'? It would be logistically difficult, and militarily questionable: the Chinese are well armed, and can fight, and landing beachheads in that scenario, so far from home, against a large enemy may simply be futile. In fact, the Chinese may possibly be able to easily defend themselves against very vulnerable US Navy ships these days.

The US/world reaction may be to use the US Navy to blockade Taiwan and all of China, and to launch electronic and economic attack on China.

But I doubt if the US would respond in a full-on WW3 scenario.

As the commenter posted, a gradual, even softer-than-Crimea takeover is much more likely.

Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.

The Chinese have the advantage of taking a very 'long view' of things and can have '50 year plans' for such things. Western democracy unfortunately doesn't allow for that so often.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#15

Post by sonnyblarney »

21 wrote: post #4
Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway."

China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them.

Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, decided not to rejoin the rest of the US as the political situation stabilized.

Americans wouldn't rest until they reclaimed it.

I'm not justifying it and personally I would have liked to have seen a 'Chinese Federation' i.e. Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China, possibly even Manchuria as separate entities, possibly with 'Tibet' as managed-but-autonomous region. Instead of a single autocracy.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#16

Post by chrischen »

Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

Highly doubt PR China would do something like that. Part of the contention is that Taiwan (aka Republic of China) still lays claim to the land occupied by People’s Republic of China, but at the same time refuses to grant citizenship to the People of the People’s Republic of China.

The Korean war, similarly, has also been prolonged by the South, which is the only party that has not signed the peace treaty.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#17

Post by chrischen »

sonnyblarney wrote: post #15
21 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway." China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them. Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, dec…

Taiwan also views China as part of its land.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#18

Post by foepys »

21 wrote: post #4
Freak_NL wrote: post #2

> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move. Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no…

The US never quite supported Ukraine the way they support Taiwan, they will be forced to have an response. US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea. EU will likely join in. What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.

Aren't there massive gas fields suspected in the ocean around there? Extending the territory and claiming the fields could be a motive.

Re: Beijing is planning world’s longest rail tunnel to link Taiwan to mainland

#19

Post by onetimemanytime »

chrischen wrote: post #17
sonnyblarney wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway." China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them. Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, dec…

Taiwan also views China as part of its land.

Win win then....let them join each other :) China is going to wait for the right moment, decades or centuries from now, but unless China is split in several countries /weakened I don't see Taiwan lasting. If I were Mongolia I'd be losing sleep too. Siberia too, but at least Russia has thousands of nukes. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
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