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Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

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Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#291
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you from? I think location and Culture makes a huge difference. Whatsapp wasnt even a thing in US before Facebook bought it. France was mainly iMessages ( transition from SMS ) before Facebook acquired WhatsApp. Then there are places like China which no one uses WhatsApp.

WhatsApp has giant user bases in India, South America, and Africa.

Here in Mexico too.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, I agree that some MBAs can be full of it but can we already stop this MBA hate on HN? I feel like lots of people here think that if you build something then customers will surely come. I've got a huge surprise for you. You will have to sell your product and some of the MBA's are really great at that. In B2B a single sale can make or break your company when you're low on cash. You do your job and let them do their…

> Finally, it's not MBAs who decided to focus on growth at all costs. It's the nature of the game. Either you get to the top or your competitors will do that. So don't hate the player, hate the game. Well, I do think it is fair to make a strong connection between the whole concept of maximizing shareholder value being the ultimate corporate goal and MBAs and their education. If the ultimate corporate goal would be ma…

Very good observations. And indeed, the whole notion that maximising shareholder value is the goal to pursue stems, I think, from a naive "economism", as James Kwak called it in his excellent book Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality [1], namely the following train of thought:

The whole point of society is to maximise utility. We can't do interpersonal utility comparison, so we're satisfied with a Pareto optimum (where you can't improve anyone's situation without making someone else worse off). By the two main theorems of welfare economics, Pareto optima are basically equivalent (under the "usual" assumptions) to market equilibria. Thus, free market.

Next, there's the agent/principal problem: the principals (owners=shareholders) of a company delegate the actual running of it to agents (managers), and now the problem of value alignment arises - the managers could be tempted to maximise their own utility (empire building etc., or even beneficial things such as employee health insurance) instead of that of the owners. And the theory suggests that the solution is maximising shareholder value, because then the owners can themselves decide how to allocate the proceeds (eg into voluntarily providing employee health insurance) as to maximise utility.

[As an aside, btw, the theoretical case for free trade rests on an Economics 101 argument (comparative advantage), but is predicated on redistribution (free trade creates efficiency gains such that even after compensating losers you still retain a surplus, therefore it's better). However, the funny thing is that the (eg libertarian) figures promoting free trade frequently conveniently forget about that part of the argument.]

And of course the whole pareto optimum/market equilibrium/maximising shareholder value argument is based on assumptions that just don't hold; the world is more complicated than Econ 101, and very often more careful empirical examinations of the evidence support much more progressive/liberal policies than Economism suggests. (That's also the gist of Kwak's book, IIRC.)

TLDR: Growth at all costs is not necessarily the nature of the game, it's contingently so because of flawed policies and flawed economics: the oh-so-rational, yet so limited Econ 101 view that MBA students are typically subjected to.

[1] https://economism.net/

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#293

Whatsapp had a great business model: $1 a year. With their current 1.5 billion users, that's nothing to sneeze at. It doesn't cost them $100M a month to provide the service. I wish more companies were like Craigslist - happy to make an great profit and a lasting business by providing basic information services for a reasonable price. Instead, a bunch of MBAs want to rule the world by focusing on growth at all costs,…

Engineer with an MBA here. My two cents: Back when I was writing code, my worldview was that if engineers ran every company, then the world would simply be a better, more rational place. Because engineering is hard and everything else is easy/squishy/learnable. During my b-school classes, it dawned on me that things are much more complicated than I had thought. Marketing and sales are very hard, very quantitative, an…

Just because it's hard, and the people running them are sharp and smart, doesn't make it any more righteous or normal.

Back in the Colonial times, sharp smart lads went to prestigious military schools and learned the complexities of how to subjugate conquered people. How to efficiently run a slave camp. How to squeeze every unit of labor off the peasants, etc. People went to these schools were probably very cultured, polite, and were funny and pleasant at social events. But history will judge them harshly

Would not be surprised if the same thing happened to MBAs when the tide of history turns in a few centuries. Maybe squeezing profit off of people will no longer be ethical or acceptable, even if your model is complex and intellectual

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is how to collect that dollar. Appstore model will not work. I think they will need to partner with telecoms provider for this.

Why won't an app store payment work? The app stores have subscription support and carrier billing.

And they take a cut of an already very small transaction.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#295

Whatsapp had a great business model: $1 a year. With their current 1.5 billion users, that's nothing to sneeze at. It doesn't cost them $100M a month to provide the service. I wish more companies were like Craigslist - happy to make an great profit and a lasting business by providing basic information services for a reasonable price. Instead, a bunch of MBAs want to rule the world by focusing on growth at all costs,…

In an interview a number of years ago, one of the founders of WhatsApp said the $1 fee was actually not a business model. I believe the interview is on YouTube.

He said he instituted the $1 fee to try to slow down a relentless increase in new users because he was afraid of potential outages.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I first started to use WhatsApp at the recommendation of a Paraguayan friend who lives in a small house outside of Asuncion. Her father drives a taxi and she drives a beat up car from the early 1980s. No idea if she paid for the app using a credit card but at least in Latin america, lower middle class people do tend to have access to such payment methods. My understanding has always been that WhatsApp encountered its…

I'm from Latin America, and I can't agree with that: lower middle class people don't tend to have access to credit cards. Besides, even for people who do have credit cards, the friction of using one for payment is non-trivial. The reason everybody uses WhatsApp is that they never paid for it -- in fact neither I nor anybody I asked can actually recall ever seeing payment UX on the app.

Agree, I'm from Mexico and over here Uber had to change their payments methods. They started allowing cash payments to prevent missing a good portion of the market. And yes, I've used WhatsApp since the early years and I never paid for it, actually I don't even remember WhatsApp being insistent about it.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#297
post #14

Remember when WhatsApp required a subscription? One of the first changes made by Facebook after purchasing WhatsApp was to make it available for free. And now they're complaining they can't milk it enough? Oh dear. I know that a percentage of WhatsApp users would stop using the app if they started requiring a payment again –because apparently paying $1 per year for using an application on your $999 phone is outrageou…

You are completely mistaken if you think adding a subscription-only would not reduce usage of WhatsApp by 10x at least. I am an Indian (WhatsApp's biggest market by far), and know for a fact that hardly 1% of people using it right now in India would be able/willing to set up a payment system AND willing to pay $1 for it (which is not as inexpensive as you think) when there are so many free alternatives. And then it i…

If you can't charge people even $1 for your product, then I would argue that you might as well close up now. As others pointed out, ads won't work either, because if you can't afford to pay $1 for WhatsApp, then I'm not going to be able to profit from showing you ads.

Ads aren't magical things you can slap on a product to make it profitable. For ads to work you need an audience that technically could pay for you product, but who opts not to. You need to understand that Google isn't a create example of ads working, they are the exception. Facebook sort of works, but the US (and to a minor extend the EU) audience subsidies the rest of the user base.

Your right in that the $1, even at $1 per year, Facebook wouldn't be able to recoup the purchase price of WhatsApp. They won't be able to anyway, WhatsApp was never worth $19B. Facebook vastly overpay for the company. The WhatsApp purchase should be seen solely as a way of removing a company that "stole" screen time from Facebook, and now they're looking for an excuse to shut it down and roll the users into Facebook Messenger.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#298

Whatsapp had a great business model: $1 a year. With their current 1.5 billion users, that's nothing to sneeze at. It doesn't cost them $100M a month to provide the service. I wish more companies were like Craigslist - happy to make an great profit and a lasting business by providing basic information services for a reasonable price. Instead, a bunch of MBAs want to rule the world by focusing on growth at all costs,…

They didn't enforce payments. I remember they asked me money but the app still worked when I didn't pay. I was surprised, so when they asked me money again many months later I didn't pay again to see what happened. The app kept working. Months later they asked me money again and this time the app stopped working. But back then whatsapp was not as popular as it is now. I was still using SMSes with most of my contacts…

I wonder how many people paid anyway. Maybe their tactics would get enough payers to support the whole thing.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#299
post #14

Remember when WhatsApp required a subscription? One of the first changes made by Facebook after purchasing WhatsApp was to make it available for free. And now they're complaining they can't milk it enough? Oh dear. I know that a percentage of WhatsApp users would stop using the app if they started requiring a payment again –because apparently paying $1 per year for using an application on your $999 phone is outrageou…

I wish I could upvote your comment more than once. We need to recognize companies like Facebook and Google for what they really are, ad companies. I fear that Microsoft might start taking a similar path with what has happened with Windows 10. I wonder if the products that Google and Facebook offer would actually be of better quality if they actually charged a certain amount to access their services. They have become…

Microsoft has been there for awhile. What you fear has long come to pass. On the other hand, I think you're wrong about paid software being better quality. Here's an example: YouTube vs. YouTube tv. The former we all know about. When was the last time you clicked a YouTube video and it didn't work or played the wrong thing or it simply crashed? These are daily enjoyments with the $45 per month YouTube tv. Hulu tv is the same way. It seems the more you pay, the worse the software.

Re: Facebook’s New Message to WhatsApp: Make Money

#300

Make it a money remmitance platform and allow one billion people to send a trillion dollars a year charging just one percent in fees (ten billions in revenue) while providing merchants with extra apps and features for a premium. A couple of days ago I was ordering a pizza by phone and they told me they had a whatsapp channel to take orders so I thought paying using whatsapp would be perfect. No need for annoying ads…

Not a bad idea, but might be hard to execute. Finance is often pretty tightly regulated because you could use WhatsApp to launder money, especially when the communication is end-to-end encrypted.

So it's not impossible, but it would be a challenge on pretty uncharted territory. But hell, Nintendo pivoted from simple toys to video games successfully so this could work it pretty well.

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