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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#61

Post by beaner »

mtw wrote: post #51
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

One of the design constraint comes from the size of batteries. This is the battery for a Toyota Camry hybrid, a car with very limited electric range : https://images.hgmsites.net/med/toyota-camry-hybrid-battery-... Imagine the size required for Prius batteries or other electric cars! They just didn't come up one day with the idea of selling ugly cars

Most of the ugliness in electric vehicles is not in their bulk/shape, but in the unnecessary and ugly flairs that manufacturers put all over them. Just freaking remove that crap.

As for batteries, why can't they just make it wider and flatter and put it at the bottom, like tesla?

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#62

Post by JumpCrisscross »

matt4077 wrote: post #8
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

For the six months ending in June 2018 Tesla's operations burned $528 million of cash. It also spent $1.27 billion on CAPEX. At quarter's end, they have $2.2 billion of cash on hand. That's like 7 months of runway. What's keeping the boat plugged up is debt. Good news is, there are no obvious bond market bogeymen on the horizon in the very near-term.

Cash flow was -$528M Jan-Jun, i. e. Q1 and Q2, yes. But it was only -$128M in Q2. Tell us why you chose the longer time frame for your prediction, exactly? Your math also has some basic problems, because $2.2 billion / ($1.27 billion / 6 months) != 7 months == 11 months. More importantly: you're mixing some completely different levels of accounting: cash flow may or may not correspond to changes in capital structure…

> changes in capital structure such as CAPEX

Hmm, so capital structure typically refers to the big elements liability side of a business. Equity versus debt, bank loans versus bonds--that sort of thing. When one purchases capital equipment (e.g. a factor), that counts as CAPEX. I will admit that this nomenclature could be less confusing.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#63

Post by rconti »

secabeen wrote: post #18
_Microft wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"$528 million in six month" sounds a lot worse than what the report itself says, namely Cash outflow from operating activities in Q2 2018 was $130 million, which was significantly better than outflows of $398 million in Q1. This improvement occurred despite a substantial increase in finished goods vehicle inventory of $579 million as a result of the timing of deliveries.

> finished goods vehicle inventory of $579 million as a result of the timing of deliveries. AKA, we delayed delivering a lot of cars to not trigger the tax credit expiration in Q2.

Exactly. And this is a 'problem' they'll never again face, because now the clock is ticking.

Of course, it's been replaced with the 'problem' of selling incremental Model 3s as the effective price goes up quarter by quarter in the near term, but the issue has ALWAYS been whether they'll be able to sustain demand and sales as the vehicle goes through pent-up demand and then has to rely on incremental sales, year after year after year (or until they start dumping huge amounts of cash into ramping the NEXT car).

That said, I'm VERY impressed with our new 3; more so than I expected, and I suspect others will be similarly delighted and new sales will follow. Their next challenge will be ramping maintenance/service of the rapidly expanding installed base.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#64

Post by mikestew »

zjaffee wrote: post #49
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because battery technology isn't where it needs to be yet, where Tesla is absolutely winning when it comes to this. Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

Oh, c'mon, you're going to use a car I can't even find a price on for comparison? Honda wants a zip code to determine if I'm even privileged enough to buy one.

Compare to a Chevy Bolt, as the sibling commenter mentions. The range might come up slightly short, but then go compare the price tags (and for bonus points, when you can get one). If Chevy wanted to bump the price, I think they could easily match Tesla's range.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#65

Post by MarkusAllen »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

We are about a year away from the Byton Electric Car here in the good 'ol USA - way better than any Tesla:

https://www.byton.com

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#66

Post by dmode »

Tesla only sold 104 Roadstars in 2011. Now they are on track to sell 250,000 Model S, X, and 3 combined in 2018. The scale of Tesla's accomplishment is truly under appreciated. It becomes even more impressive when you realize that this is an electric car, sold by Tesla owned stores, supported by over a thousand Superchargers. Amazing !!

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#67

Post by mikepavone »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric?

Given that Ford is largely abandoning sedans, it would seem that they're not particularly popular anymore. The Leaf and Bolt aren't all that weird looking for hatchbacks. Original Leaf had some weird-ish features (like the headlights), but mostly had a similar profile to the Nissan Versa hatchback. The new 2018 model is very ordinary looking. The Chevy Bolt has a pretty similar shape to the Chevy Spark.

It's not a very sexy shape, but it's a practical one.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#68

Post by toomuchtodo »

giobox wrote: post #53
zjaffee wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because battery technology isn't where it needs to be yet, where Tesla is absolutely winning when it comes to this. Honda released their plug in Honda Clarity, but it only has a range of 89 miles.

This simply isn't true - the Chevrolet Bolt has an EPA-estimate 238 mile range, with many reviewers getting close to 300. Pretty much what you get in a base Model 3. What's more you can actually walk into a dealership and buy a Bolt today, good luck trying that with a Model 3. It also costs almost 15 grand less than the cheapest Model 3 Tesla is currently shipping, given they still don't have a release date for the m…

Supercharger network, OTA updates, superior driver assist system, superior warranty.

I’d wait for a Model 3 instead of buying a Bolt off the lot. Range isn’t everything.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#69

Post by Retric »

mtw wrote: post #51
geerlingguy wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

One of the design constraint comes from the size of batteries. This is the battery for a Toyota Camry hybrid, a car with very limited electric range : https://images.hgmsites.net/med/toyota-camry-hybrid-battery-... Imagine the size required for Prius batteries or other electric cars! They just didn't come up one day with the idea of selling ugly cars

That’s significantly smaller than a gass tank. Picture 3+ 5 gallon water containers as they hold 15+ gallons. You are also removing the engine and exhaust system. Look just look at a muffler some time they are huge.

Go a little further and remove the axle and giant transmission and suddenly you have a lot of space under a car.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#70

Post by nilkn »

ghaff wrote: post #48
Puer wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used. Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the momen…

How awful that they're making cars that their customers want to buy. The reality is that electric cars aren't in great demand today, Everyone's working on them but most aren't in a particular hurry to push out cars that don't necessarily have a good mix of price/range/features for their customers and which they won't sell all that many of as a result.

Something no one really talks about is the difficulty of just charging an electric car for anyone who isn't a homeowner. That's a nontrivial question -- and possibly a dealbreaker -- for millions of apartment dwellers.
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