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Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#31

Post by toomuchtodo »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Innovator’s dilemma. EVs compete against existing combustion vehicles and all of the capex and supply chain that goes with it.

Have to be willing to cannibalize part of your own market to succeed. Tall order for most.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#32

Post by Nition »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Toyota has a Corolla hybrid option now too, which seems to further support your case that they could do a full electric conversion as well if they really wanted to.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#33

Post by ceejayoz »

romski wrote: post #24
Alex3917 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

The information regarding the subsidy limit being hit soon was freely available to depositors.

"Soon" is not the same as "already hit". Some likely gambled on beating the deadline and may cancel now.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#34

Post by Puer »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

Because car companies are horridly shortsighted. All of the major US car makers right now are doubling down on building gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs because they have a nice profit margin and because Americans love commuting alone downtown in traffic every day in their seats 7, 20 mpg abominations with trunks and beds that are never used.

Maybe it's what's necessary to survive in the moment and maybe the moment is the nature of the car industry, but all of these car producers seem to forget what happens when gas prices rise and the economy slows. Maybe then they'll actually innovate, but in terms of technology they're already playing catchup to Tesla. If Tesla can figure out how to produce these cars steadily traditional car makers are in trouble.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#35

Post by quest88 »

sp332 wrote: post #16
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their burn rate varies dramatically as they start shipping new models of cars Sure, you have to build new tools, buy material, hire factory workers--all before you've sold your first vehicle. This is a known cash curve. The purpose of calculating a runway is to understand "we have to start selling lots of cars within 7 months, or else sell more debt or stock."

Right, but since they did just start selling a lot of cars, the runway calculation is now moot.

What is it now?

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#36

Post by Shivetya »

Alex3917 wrote: post #17
sp332 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will drop to $3,750 in January and then $1,875 in July. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/07/tesla-sold-200000-cars-...

Even that phaseout will probably result in a lot of cancellations from people who have been on the waiting list for several months already but who haven't taken delivery by the end of the year. Especially for the orders at the lower end of the price spectrum, which haven't even started shipping yet. Loss aversion is real, and people aren't going to be happy about being asked to suddenly pay ~20% more for the exact sa…

well the phase out will cost the least able to afford the car the most. I can still order a LR and get it sooner than the two people I work with who are awaiting the standard edition. Now I haven't asked them if they will continue to wait but even if I did order; I am not; its a random two to four months for me, which means I doubt any standard model would even ship before end of year

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#37

Post by newnewpdro »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

I assume that the established auto manufacturers are hamstrung by deep-rooted affiliations with big oil.

Who are the sponsors slathered all over their race cars? Petrol companies.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#38

Post by secabeen »

bhandziuk wrote: post #26

Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need? I know they say things like > We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks. Is that the source of growth at this point?

> Is that graph of their market share true? Do they really have a ~50% market share? It sounds really high. At that sort of percentage can they really grow at the rate they need?

Yes, when comparing to other compact luxury sedans such as the BMW 3-series and the M-B C-Class, yes, they are at 50% market share. The question becomes, are they just selling cars to people who would have bought a car in that class, or are they selling to people who normally would have been in a lower class. Anecdotally, they're growing the class, as there's a lot of interest in the Model 3 from people who otherwise would have bought a Camry, Accord, Malibu, or other mid-grade sedan.

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#39

Post by cycrutchfield »

salimmadjd wrote: post #25
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I’m reading it as “we aim” sounds like a goal. They’re expecting Expecting to produce 50-55k Model 3s in Q3 Which falls below the 5000/week

It's the difference between max and average

Re: Tesla Second Quarter 2018 Update

#40

Post by bmelton »

geerlingguy wrote: post #23
melling wrote: post #21

Beyond the finances, Tesla says they’re still on target for 6000 Model 3’s a week by the end of the month. Throw in the other Models and Tesla will be shipping 300,000-400,000 electric cars a year. That’s quite an accomplishment.

I wish other car companies would create more compelling and somewhat affordable electric cars. At least in the US, the only two cars I can think of (besides the Model 3, which is hard to come by) that move the needle at all are the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt, both of which look... not great. Why don't any other car companies offer a 'standard' mid size or compact sedan that's fully electric? Just take an existing dec…

> but why not a standard looking body instead of some weird buggy space-age thing?

I think they're still counting on the signaling. It's said that the Prius was bought by so many in large part because it looked so goofy, in that it didn't look like anything else, so everybody knew it was a Prius, which by proxy meant that you were driving green.

Tesla shook that up, but styling still remains something withheld for the maximum dollars. There are very few stylish cars at cheaper price points because they know that despite whatever features are there, people shop with their eyes predominately.

If they happen to land on a design that's too fetching for the price point they're targeting, it seems likely that they'd uglify it somewhat and withhold the better design for a more expensive vehicle that they may or may not plan to make.

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