China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order • Hacker News Board

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#71

Post by AnimalMuppet » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 7:53 PM UTC

merpnderp wrote: post #70

FLUX-YOU wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I agree 9/11 was when it started. We were still cooperating with allies and other countries and still maintaining non-war stuff. Trump is when the bridge burning started and when America really lost its stature on the world stage. If it was declining since 9/11, trump took that gradual trend and sent it straight down.

Exactly the same sort of FUD was stated when Bush was president. Trump is strengthening NATO, is in the process of renegotiating several trade treaties which appear to be well received by all sides, and has made some unprecedented progress with N. Korea, while building a coalition of Arab states to counter Iran and Russia in the Middle East, plus putting pressure on Europe to lessen their dependance on Russian energy…

Trump is "strengthening NATO" by telling the other members to pull their own weight, or the US will walk away. That may in fact strengthen NATO, if the other members do what Trump wants them to. If they don't, though, it could destroy NATO.

My impression is that Trump is negotiating completely differently than any previous US president. He's throwing extreme positions out there as a starting point, then trying to negotiate back to something reasonable. (Much of the outrage in the press is directed at his opening statements - both content and style - not at the end position.) This approach may work, if others adjust to his style. But international diplomacy is not like business negotiations, and he may wind up alienating countries that he really needs to keep as friends.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#72

Post by posting2fast » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 7:59 PM UTC

frockington wrote: post #30

zapita wrote: post #21

I would argue that, more than anyone else, the US is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order. It has been on that course since the post-9/11 insanity, and the trend has only accelerated since.

As an American I would be happy to see someone else take responsibility. If China thinks they can somehow bring stability to the Middle East then give them a shot. At least when they inevitably descend into chaos again it wont be us having to babysit. I think many Americans are hoping China tries to take a leadership role in Asia and near neighbors

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17644657

> The Uighurs see themselves as a minority facing cultural, religious and economic discrimination. When Xinjiang was incorporated into the People's Republic of China in 1949, they comprised roughly 80 percent of the region's population. Controlled migration to Xinjiang of Han Chinese has reduced this share to 45 percent

[..]

> Anyone with a potentially suspicious data trail can be detained. The government has built up a grid of hundreds of re-education camps. Tens of thousands of people have disappeared into them in recent months. Zenz estimates the number to be closer to hundreds of thousands. More precise figures are difficult to obtain. Censorship in Xinjiang is the strictest in China and its authorities the most inscrutable.

[..]

> Normal journalistic research in Kashgar is inconceivable. No one wants to talk. A Uighur human rights activist who met up with us four years ago didn't respond to a single one of our text messages. His phone number is no longer listed. As we later learned, he disappeared months ago. But whether he was thrown into a re-education camp or prison is unknown.

[..]

> Every family begins with 100 points, one person affected by the system tells us. But anyone with contacts or relatives abroad, especially in Islamic countries like Turkey, Egypt or Malaysia, is punished by losing points. A person with fewer than 60 points is in danger. One wrong word, a prayer or one telephone call too many and they could be sent to "school" in no time.

Bring "stability" to the Middle East?

What the US did and does in the Middle East is not something any other nation can solve for them; bring those who waged wars of aggression to justice, show genuine good will towards those you mistreated, that's something any nation owes either way (it's not like many European nations don't have a lot to make up for, for example). You're responsible for not making it worse, and owning your shit. That's not just what "number one" must do, even the smallest must do it. Others are responsible for sorting out their mess. You don't have to bring peace to the Middle East, just not more war. You don't have to bring democracy to China, just don't look the other way or even help rationalize and justify it.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#73

Post by bbstevecou » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 7:59 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #71

merpnderp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly the same sort of FUD was stated when Bush was president. Trump is strengthening NATO, is in the process of renegotiating several trade treaties which appear to be well received by all sides, and has made some unprecedented progress with N. Korea, while building a coalition of Arab states to counter Iran and Russia in the Middle East, plus putting pressure on Europe to lessen their dependance on Russian energy…

Trump is "strengthening NATO" by telling the other members to pull their own weight, or the US will walk away. That may in fact strengthen NATO, if the other members do what Trump wants them to. If they don't, though, it could destroy NATO. My impression is that Trump is negotiating completely differently than any previous US president. He's throwing extreme positions out there as a starting point, then trying to neg…

He's merely negotiating from a position of power; US has the biggest GDP of any country. and has the largest consumer market (12T) vs EU (9T). No country is stupid enough to not want access to this market - they might be upset for concessions. But to walk away? no way.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#74

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 8:02 PM UTC

merpnderp wrote: post #70

FLUX-YOU wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I agree 9/11 was when it started. We were still cooperating with allies and other countries and still maintaining non-war stuff. Trump is when the bridge burning started and when America really lost its stature on the world stage. If it was declining since 9/11, trump took that gradual trend and sent it straight down.

Exactly the same sort of FUD was stated when Bush was president. Trump is strengthening NATO, is in the process of renegotiating several trade treaties which appear to be well received by all sides, and has made some unprecedented progress with N. Korea, while building a coalition of Arab states to counter Iran and Russia in the Middle East, plus putting pressure on Europe to lessen their dependance on Russian energy…

[deleted]

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#75

Post by rando_supreme » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 8:19 PM UTC

merpnderp wrote: post #70

FLUX-YOU wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I agree 9/11 was when it started. We were still cooperating with allies and other countries and still maintaining non-war stuff. Trump is when the bridge burning started and when America really lost its stature on the world stage. If it was declining since 9/11, trump took that gradual trend and sent it straight down.

Exactly the same sort of FUD was stated when Bush was president. Trump is strengthening NATO, is in the process of renegotiating several trade treaties which appear to be well received by all sides, and has made some unprecedented progress with N. Korea, while building a coalition of Arab states to counter Iran and Russia in the Middle East, plus putting pressure on Europe to lessen their dependance on Russian energy…

At the risk of falling for troll bait, I'll ask anyways.

What measurable metrics are you examining to come to the conclusion that Trump has had a net positive effect? Can you please point me to any primary source document in the EU parlament which outlines legislative action leading to growth in NATO? Who is our diplomatic negotiator in these talks? Do we have any commitment on any level?

On the subject of trade, can you please point me to any primary source document that suggests we're getting a better deal? What exports are suffering, and how does current administration policy balance the deficit, increase the quality of life for the American people, or benefit our trading partners. Who has received the current administration's policy "well?"

What tangible commitments has N Korea made towards a peace process? Sohae Satalite Launch was not used for years, and the only thing torn down was a rocket engine burn pad (trivial to setup again, but I'm not an airspace engineer. ).

What new Arab state coalition exists under Trump that didn't exist under Bush or Clinton?

How has Trump's summit meeting with Putin, or his actions since illustrated a clear international policy on Syria? How has the EU been forced to make any energy policy changes in the past 2 years?

You've made some interesting claims, and I'd be happy to hear you support them. However, that which can be claimed without evidence will be dismissed without evidence.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#76

Post by rando_supreme » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 8:24 PM UTC

Leary wrote: post #56

astebbin wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think many Americans are hoping China tries to take a leadership role in Asia and near neighbors Could you elaborate on this? My impression was that China has recently been bullying its neighbors, particularly Vietnam and to some extent the Philippines, over oil and gas deposits in the South China Sea. I can't imagine that's great for regional stability. I also wonder if many Americans would want China to take on…

Border tensions is only a minor part of life in Asia, one that is over reported by western media. Trade and infrastructure are more important concerns.

I don't mean to call you out... but for an 11 day old account, you seem to have a fair amount of pro China trolling material posted.

Why would border tensions be "over reported." It's a matter of allied sovereignty?

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#77

Post by grezql » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

hupe_ wrote: post #60

grezql wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This us VS them mentality, amplified/reinforced by social media, 24*7 news, celebs, politicians et al is doing the most unnecessary damage.

who do you mean by 'us'? I was born in one of the asian countries China is trying to influence with its cheap plastic copies. Everything they touch there is ruined.

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#78

Post by gandhium » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 9:46 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #11

jbrun wrote: post #2

If you are interested in a more detailed portrait of the shifts happening, this book is excellent. If the US loses its technological advantage and its reserve currency status, it is very difficult to know what will happen. https://www.amazon.com/Shadows-American-Century-Decline-Disp... China's biggest problem will be demographics, second only to their political system. US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not…

>US will likely due to tax / deficit issues, not so different than the French aristocrats who refused to pay taxes in run-up to the revolution. Or you could see it as being like the USSR which drove itself into the ground by spending everyone's money (trying to keep up with the US) faster than everyone could create it. Tax/deficit problems can not be considered just tax problems or just spending problems because the…

> being like the USSR which drove itself into the ground by spending everyone's money (trying to keep up with the US)

So US will spend their money on trying to keep up with... China? Russia? Japan? India?

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#79

Post by merpnderp » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 9:55 PM UTC

rando_supreme wrote: post #75

merpnderp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly the same sort of FUD was stated when Bush was president. Trump is strengthening NATO, is in the process of renegotiating several trade treaties which appear to be well received by all sides, and has made some unprecedented progress with N. Korea, while building a coalition of Arab states to counter Iran and Russia in the Middle East, plus putting pressure on Europe to lessen their dependance on Russian energy…

At the risk of falling for troll bait, I'll ask anyways. What measurable metrics are you examining to come to the conclusion that Trump has had a net positive effect? Can you please point me to any primary source document in the EU parlament which outlines legislative action leading to growth in NATO? Who is our diplomatic negotiator in these talks? Do we have any commitment on any level? On the subject of trade, can…

Well, France and Germany have both acknowledged their NATO spending deficits and have pledged to increase them, with France actually signing legislation and Germany saying they improve their stance (hard to say no when at the time of the NATO summit they had 0 operational fighter jets): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/08/france-germany-i...

As for trade, negotiations are obviously ongoing, but it's only been a few week, but certainly seems to be going in a good direction: https://www.vox.com/2018/7/25/17614564/trump-eu-trade-deal-j...

As for N. Korea, their latest peace negotiations have gone further than ever before. US soldier's remains have been returned, political prisoners were returned, the very first peace summit directly between a US president and a N. Korean leader, and end to missile and nuclear testing for going on a year. You can knock these, but it is hard to see how they aren't major achievements only belittled by ideology.

As for the middle-east why would we not count a strengthening of a coalition, just because it existed before? I pointed out that negotiations are being made when the parent would have you believe things were getting worse instead of working plan for better. They certainly aren't "burned bridges".

I didn't mention Syria for a reason. That is clearly lost to Assad and Russia. Not sure what Trump could have done differently except immediately pull out and cede the loss.

And you're putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Europe had changed their energy policy, only after the NATO and trade summits, they have agreed to take US LNG in an effort to reduce their reliance on Russian nat-gas, and at least formally acknowledged their reliance is a bad thing.

Why didn't you ask the parent to source and explain their statements? What did they state which was obvious?

Re: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

#80

Post by jewelthief91 » Mon, Jul 30, 2018, 10:32 PM UTC

The United States has been pulling back from the world order since the end of the Cold War. We just don't need to engage with the rest of the world as much as we used to, especially now that we don't even need foreign oil (thanks fracking!). Trump is just continuing this trend with more bombast and directness, as is his style.