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How did Google get so big?

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Re: How did Google get so big?

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that Google's dominance has almost nothing to do with technology and almost everything to do with customer lock-in. For me, duckduckgo.com is as good as Google but I still use Google because it's the default search engine for Chrome's address bar - And that's where I do all my searches from these days. If Duckduckgo made their own browser which was of the same quality as Chrome then I would definitely conside…

You know you can change where the browser bar searches; In chrome, in Safari, and in Firefox, and Edge.

That wasn't true until recently on Chrome/Android, and seems to be a direct response to EU actions.

Re: How did Google get so big?

#272

Ads. Previously to buy ads you had to call someone, get dinner with some weird guy, make tons of calls, get crappy click rates, trust the other companies 'reporting', pay for impression ads (wtf). It was a mess. You also had to do this with 23 DIFFERENT companies, which were all different . Google wasn't the first, but they did follow through and make a great way to advertise with self serve. Selling ads is awesome.…

Google didn't invent online ads, not even the auctioned ones. Also, their innovations in the online ad space were generally limited to their search-based ad business.

And Apple didn’t invent the smartphone, but they reimagined it in a way that basically made things 10X better in UX, just like buying ads on google is 10X better than the process described earlier.

Re: How did Google get so big?

#273
post #269

On the market end - Google got huge because they inserted themselves as a critical part of peoples' usage of a resource that got even huger. As late as 2013, my coworkers and I would mock the Wall Street analysts who covered Google because (you could tell from their questions on the earnings call) they assumed that the Internet was no longer growing. So all the focus was on CPCs and Google's ability to monetize, when…

This was one of the points made in http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf about why people find Metcalfe's law compelling despite the numerical evidence against it. Our personal perception of the size of a network is directly proportional to the value that we get from it. Extrapolating from that we estimate a square law. However we are neither aware of nor directly value the long tail of people distant from…

Your and Odlyzko's refutation still fails to consider frictional or hygenic costs. These are roughly constant for n, and set an upper size bound where marginal (actually: constant) cost exceeds marginal value.

Since a novel network might be able to selectively recruit high-value nodes, this sets up the serial monopoly / collapse / new monopoly dynamic.

A few other dynamics added (Gresham's law, tyranny of minimum viable user) accentuate this.

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1yzvh3/refutat...

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/61goq1/softwar...

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/69wk8y/the_tyr...

Re: How did Google get so big?

#275

OK, so I watched it all happen. Back in the day, I loved AltaVista. And then I dicovered Google. And found that it consistently gave me better results. At least at first, Google grew because its stuff worked better than the competition's. Still, it is pretty clear that Google now excludes competitors through discrimination in search results. But it's hard to prove, because search algorithms are so bloody complicated.…

This goes to Peter Thiel's point (like him or not for other reasons): all businesses claim to not be monopolies when talking to regulators or critics while they claim to be monopolies when talking to investors.

It's easy. Want to be a monopoly for investors? Just describe whatever is arbitrarily unique and claim that your market is specific to to that. Want to be a non-monopoly? Just claim that your scope is broad enough to encompass many other businesses.

Re: How did Google get so big?

#276
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someday Google's going to have to list the risk of Jeff Dean leaving on their 10-K ... (not entirely joking)

Companies actually do this behind the scenes. They list individual employees as financial assets.

They certainly must have him insured...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate-owned_life_insurance

Re: How did Google get so big?

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that Google's dominance has almost nothing to do with technology and almost everything to do with customer lock-in. For me, duckduckgo.com is as good as Google but I still use Google because it's the default search engine for Chrome's address bar - And that's where I do all my searches from these days. If Duckduckgo made their own browser which was of the same quality as Chrome then I would definitely conside…

I used to wonder why search engine companies care about which engine is the default in a browser because it only takes a few seconds to change it but now I know why. People are lazy :/

There's more to it than laziness:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo_bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_effect

Re: How did Google get so big?

#278
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies actually do this behind the scenes. They list individual employees as financial assets.

They certainly must have him insured... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate-owned_life_insurance

No, there's no point for Google to pay a third party to insure any risk of $1B or less.

Re: How did Google get so big?

#279
post #107
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point of antitrust regulations is to stop the anti-innovation practices Is that true? That doesn't match the definition of any antitrust regulation I'm aware of. AFAIK antitrust regulation is intended to enforce _fairness_, not _innovation_. Often the two go hand in hand, of course, but I think it's worth not conflating the two.

Hmm, fairness? "Level playing field", maybe. The idea of anti-trust regulation is to break up companies that cornered a market, that is, (mostly) prevented competition on it. Breaking them up serves to make more, smaller companies (out of the split giant) that would start to compete again. Anti-trust laws can be seen as pro-market laws that try to prevent long periods of monopolized markets without waiting for a natu…

I used "fairness" because it appears in most definitions of the anti trust regulation. A "level playing field" is 100% not the point of antitrust laws. Sidenote: I don't believe any "playing field" in business is "level".

I think something for folks to keep in mind is that much of the US antitrust laws were made back in the early 1900s to combat _literal_ monopolies, objective collusion between companies to harm consumers, and so on. We're talking price fixing here.

> Anti-trust laws can be seen as pro-market laws that try to prevent long periods of monopolized markets without waiting for a naturally occurring disruption, instead providing a mandated disruption.

This sentence is dangerous: it is very close to saying that any long-term, successful company should be "disrupted". Interpreted differently it could be read that startups should have some inherent right to evenly compete with large companies (by fining or splitting up large companies to be "beatable" by startups).

Again, that is not all the point of anti trust laws. I won't argue whether there should be laws like that (as you can tell, I think not), but the anti trust regulation in the USA is definitely squarely aimed at _actual_ monopolies and collusion.

Re: How did Google get so big?

#280
post #179
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's important to mention Sanjay Ghemawat is very likely just as important to google as Jeff Dean, just Jeff has been made the public figure for a variety of reasons.

Urs Hölzle (engineering VP) and Eric Veach (AdWords) also don't get nearly as much recognition as they deserve.

Huh, I had no idea the guy who wrote the light transport thesis also built Adwords.
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