That sinking feeling • Hacker News Board

Re: That sinking feeling

#151

Post by nicktelford » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:26 PM UTC

xamuel wrote: post #150

My sinking feeling comes from seeing democracy dying, replaced by "right answers" declared from on high. Suppose the UK held a referendum about whether RSA encryption should be legal. The voters narrowly vote to keep it legal. Suddenly the press, the universities, celebrities and think-tanks start proclaiming the voters were mis-informed. That foreign powers deceived voters to keep RSA encryption legal. That the vote…

The chief problem with Brexit is the ambiguity of the referendum question.

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

The problem with this is that if you interpret it literally, the outcome is to leave the European Union, but remain in the EEA (single market), potentially also the ECJ and a number of other treaties.

This is why so many commentators have argued that no one really knows "what kind of Brexit" the public voted for.

The question was proposed with the expectation of a Remain vote. No one expected the Leave result, and as such, hadn't planned for what that even meant, let alone actually executing on it.

Re: That sinking feeling

#152

Post by trocadero » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:27 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #134

trocadero wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's not so much the tariffs as the customs clearance per se. Everyone seems to have forgotten that transporting goods across a border has VAT implications, and if you don't check and aren't part of the same VAT area there's a huge opportunity for "carousel fraud". That would give the EU reason to block imports from the UK. It doesn't give much of a reason for the UK to block imports from the EU. So there's no reaso…

Even if the UK decides to accept fraud and have a customs-free border, shipping is bi-directional; once the tailbacks start, lorries start parking up on the M20. Drivers are going to be reluctant to cross the channel if they can't get back again in a timely fashion. (Are EU truck licenses valid in the UK after Brexit? And vice versa? Who knows?)

The issues you mentioned are relatively minor. Drivers will still cross if they are paid enough. The UK can easily recognize EU truck licenses on their own. Undoubtably Brexit will cause some disruption to UK/EU trade, but it's pretty far fetched that it will completely break down.

Re: That sinking feeling

#153

Post by NeedMoreTea » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:33 PM UTC

trocadero wrote: post #95

pjc50 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not so much the tariffs as the customs clearance per se. Everyone seems to have forgotten that transporting goods across a border has VAT implications, and if you don't check and aren't part of the same VAT area there's a huge opportunity for "carousel fraud". And the UK is absolutely not set up to cope with customs checks on every vehicle crossing the Channel. See "operation stack". Oh, and all our internationa…

>It's not so much the tariffs as the customs clearance per se. Everyone seems to have forgotten that transporting goods across a border has VAT implications, and if you don't check and aren't part of the same VAT area there's a huge opportunity for "carousel fraud". That would give the EU reason to block imports from the UK. It doesn't give much of a reason for the UK to block imports from the EU. So there's no reaso…

They have to get through customs and multi-mile stacks on the M20 even when empty returning from a delivery. If half a EU company's drivers are stuck in the UK for a day or week longer than intended the chaos will quickly spread far beyond just affecting UK exports only.

Given modern approaches to warehousing and logistics (see how quickly KFC completely fell apart when changing chicken supplier recently) there will be shortages and probably issues with fresh produce. If there are some shortages, any shortages, panic buying and last minute stockpiling will commence. Then there will soon be real shortages.

Re: That sinking feeling

#154

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:36 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #91

dragonwriter wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Leaving aside the plain lack of ability from those running the show, as written this is a mandate for the "Norway option" - EEA and free movement, ECJ etc, but not actually in the EU I'm pretty sure opposition to free movement was a key underpinning of Brexit support, so I don't think the Brexit vote can be seen as a mandate for the “Norway option”. Also, not sure that that's an option that would actually be in the…

> I'm pretty sure opposition to free movement was a key underpinning of Brexit support Probably, but was it on the ballot paper? No. Was it in the manifesto? (which manifesto of the multiple Leave campaigns, or the Conservative 2017 one?) This is why we're in a mess, for every option people appear saying that it's not what they voted for.

And it's true. For every option, there are people who, when they voted Leave, weren't voting for that.

So you have a slight majority who voted Leave. But they were (in their own minds) voting for different flavors of Leave. You don't have a majority behind any particular kind of Leave.

Therefore there is no possible way to do this that will satisfy the majority of people. That's going to be problematic.

Re: That sinking feeling

#155

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:38 PM UTC

ardillaroja wrote: post #87

craigsmansion wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I think that they had a vote. Norway also had a vote on the EU. I was also close. "No" won. What Norway didn't implement was a "winner takes all" approach. They're not in the EU. They're not in the Customs union. They are in the EEA. Everybody wins, everybody loses, but nobody feels like their wishes have been completely ignored. There is no reason the results of the Brexit referendum couldn't have been interpr…

I'm no fan of May and this is probably giving her too much credit (and oversimplifying) but is it possible she's nailing this? Her "Brexit means brexit" and "No deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric has kept the hardline Brexiteer tories from throwing her overboard. But maybe after a 'long, hard fight' she gives a theatrical sigh and accepts the Norway deal. Everyone gives a resigned shrug and we don't have countr…

As I said in another post here, since people who voted Leave had different ideas of what they meant by Leave, there is no possible way to do this that will satisfy even the majority of people. A compromise that leaves most people feeling not too dis-satisfied may be the best possible outcome.

Re: That sinking feeling

#156

Post by dragonwriter » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:44 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #154

pjc50 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm pretty sure opposition to free movement was a key underpinning of Brexit support Probably, but was it on the ballot paper? No. Was it in the manifesto? (which manifesto of the multiple Leave campaigns, or the Conservative 2017 one?) This is why we're in a mess, for every option people appear saying that it's not what they voted for.

And it's true. For every option, there are people who, when they voted Leave, weren't voting for that. So you have a slight majority who voted Leave. But they were (in their own minds) voting for different flavors of Leave. You don't have a majority behind any particular kind of Leave. Therefore there is no possible way to do this that will satisfy the majority of people. That's going to be problematic.

But because the terms of an exit, under the laws of the EU, are not up to the departing nation, voting Leave meant accepting a hard Brexit —which could result no matter what the British government negotiating position was—was, even if not th best result, both acceptable and preferable to the status quo ante. There's no other reasonable interpretation of a vote for Leave.

Re: That sinking feeling

#157

Post by NeedMoreTea » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:45 PM UTC

lmm wrote: post #120

BerislavLopac wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> his party is duty-bound to implement its results And what are the results? To leave with no deal? In any case it is NOT legally bound. But it acts as it was.

> And what are the results? To leave with no deal? To leave the European Union one way or another, since that was the question they asked and the answer they got. With whatever deal they believe best for the country and its people, which may or may not end up being no deal. > In any case it is NOT legally bound. But it acts as it was. The government's legal obligations come from its duty to the people, not the other…

Until the 1973 Northern Ireland referendum they generally were seen as unconstitutional throughout our history. Thatcher famously agreed with Atlee that referenda were a device of dictators and demagogues[0].

There is nothing to prevent any government, or any future government going against a referendum result. Parliamentary sovereignty means no restriction can be placed on any future administration changing the law.

[0] https://www.economist.com/special-report/2015/10/15/herding-...

Re: That sinking feeling

#158

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:51 PM UTC

adamrezich wrote: post #88

andruby wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should ask the people the same question again, now that they've had some time to inform themselves of what "leaving the EU" really means. I wouldn't bet any money on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the majority would now vote Remain.

Why "should" the Brexit referendum get the special privilege of a "do-over?" I have no idea how the law works over there but surely that would set some sort of terrible precedent? I have zero skin in that game but the idea that people can espouse the virtues of democracy one minute only to make endless excuses as to why the result of a wholly democratic vote is wrong, invalid, or otherwise "deserves" a do-over the ne…

I don't think "the people voted wrong, so we'll make them keep voting until they vote right" is the answer to anything. That kind of elitist, we-know-better-than-you attitude is, in my foreign opinion, a part of why Britain voted for Brexit in the first place - because they were sick of Brussels treating them that way.

At the same time, it seems to me that both "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" proponents voted Leave, because of the way the question was written on the ballot. We're going to get either a hard Brexit or a soft Brexit, but not both. So if we get a hard Brexit, say, do the people who wanted a soft Brexit want that? Should their Leave vote count as authorization for a Leave that isn't of the form that they wanted?

But if they re-vote once the deal is known, they're going to get accused of "re-vote until they vote right". May is going to have to show more skill than she has so far to keep that from gaining traction.

Re: That sinking feeling

#159

Post by xamuel » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 4:59 PM UTC

nicktelford wrote: post #151

xamuel wrote: post #150

My sinking feeling comes from seeing democracy dying, replaced by "right answers" declared from on high. Suppose the UK held a referendum about whether RSA encryption should be legal. The voters narrowly vote to keep it legal. Suddenly the press, the universities, celebrities and think-tanks start proclaiming the voters were mis-informed. That foreign powers deceived voters to keep RSA encryption legal. That the vote…

The chief problem with Brexit is the ambiguity of the referendum question. "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" The problem with this is that if you interpret it literally, the outcome is to leave the European Union, but remain in the EEA (single market), potentially also the ECJ and a number of other treaties. This is why so many commentators have argued that…

That's a very good point, thanks.

But just in this thread, I see many other arguments to invalidate the vote:

* Arguments that economics make Remain "right" (assuming economic considerations overrule votes; if economists proved the economic thing was to kill one half the population, does that mean that's the "right" choice?)

* Arguments that since the vote, Leavers have died while Remainers have come of age. This kind of reasoning blatantly disenfranchises an entire section of demographics, and no-one sees a problem with that??

* That the margins were too close and this somehow invalidates the vote. This is "complaining about the rules of Monopoly after you've lost the game".

* That the public is not qualified to vote on this question. This is insulting and highlights what I said about democracy dying.

* That the result is invalidated by outside meddling. Others have already pointed out how ridiculous this is.

Re: That sinking feeling

#160

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jul 25, 2018, 5:17 PM UTC

wilsonnb2 wrote: post #114

api wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think some of them know that. Would it really be any better if they'd not rioted in the voting booth? If anything the trends that are destroying the American working and middle class are accelerating. They have nothing to lose that wouldn't be lost anyway. You're totally right that the result will just make them angrier and the cycle will repeat. This is how civilizations fall. If liberals want to do anything about…

> If liberals want to do anything about it they need to start actually giving a damn about America's poor and rapidly shrinking middle class in spite of the fact that they hold "backward and primitive" religious beliefs and are behind the times on social issues. Hillary focused so much on the shrinking middle class and the poor during the 2016 election - I can't believe that anyone who has actually read her policy su…

I have an extremely different impression of her campaign. If you look, not at the words on the platform, but at her campaign, it seemed very clear to me that she didn't care about working class people in flyover country. And I thought that was very strange, because that used to be the Democratic Party's core constituency.

I can't at the moment point you to documentation to back up my impression, but I'm pretty sure I wasn't alone in reaching that conclusion...