Tesla’s Driver Fatality Rate is more than Triple that of Luxury Cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s Driver Fatality Rate is more than Triple that of Luxury Cars

#31

Post by cs702 » Tue, Jul 24, 2018, 2:53 PM UTC

dahdum wrote: post #25

cs702 wrote: post #24

I submitted the OP, and am a bit surprised to see it flagged. The OP looks to me like a sincere attempt to analyze fatality data. Yes, the authors are short Tesla, but they disclose it. Yes, the analysis is naive, but that doesn't necessarily mean its conclusions are off. Yes, the inclusion of data from China is... questionable, but the authors address it upfront: "To have the largest sample size and best confidence…

Doesn't deserve the flag IMO, Tesla is an emotional topic for many people. While there certainly have been hit pieces and hack journalism throughout the companies existence, I think this one has enough meat to be worth discussing. Like most investors, I'm long TSLA. Both index and individual shares.

Yes, exactly my thoughts.

I would have liked to see the HN community rationally debate what to me looks like an earnest but naive analysis of fatality rates -- based on its merits or lack thereof. Instead, at least some in the HN community have resorted to ad hominem attacks ("Tesla short!") and flagging.

For the record, I'm a huge fan of Musk and the company, but other than minimal long exposure through passive funds, I have no position in Tesla.

Re: Tesla’s Driver Fatality Rate is more than Triple that of Luxury Cars

#32

Post by idrae » Tue, Jul 24, 2018, 3:17 PM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #26

cs702 wrote: post #24

I submitted the OP, and am a bit surprised to see it flagged. The OP looks to me like a sincere attempt to analyze fatality data. Yes, the authors are short Tesla, but they disclose it. Yes, the analysis is naive, but that doesn't necessarily mean its conclusions are off. Yes, the inclusion of data from China is... questionable, but the authors address it upfront: "To have the largest sample size and best confidence…

I must be stupid, but what does "Short Tesla" mean?

Means that they have short-selled Tesla stock. Simply put, they are betting on the Tesla share price to fall.

Edit: Together with the highly dubious "statistical" analysis they did, this COULD suggest that the article is intended to create doubts about Tesla and thus drive the stock price down. However, this is of course speculation.

Re: Tesla’s Driver Fatality Rate is more than Triple that of Luxury Cars

#33

Post by dpkonofa » Tue, Jul 24, 2018, 7:29 PM UTC

rgbrenner wrote: post #11

dahdum wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The firm is short Tesla, but I’d still like to see a data driven Tesla rebuttal before believing it’s all smoke and no fire.

The data is in the article. They didn't like the conclusion, so then they included China, did a google search for tesla accidents, and made adjustments--only to tesla--until they got what they wanted. They aren't even comparing like with like... all of the conclusions are invalid. I don't think this article was written in good faith.

Yeah... even basic algebra requires that what you do to 1 side of the equation, you do for both and that definitely didn't happen here. There's no control at all in this analysis.