The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017 • Hacker News Board

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#151

Post by repolfx » Tue, Jul 17, 2018, 8:19 AM UTC

moomin wrote: post #137

repolfx wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European economies are hardly poster children for constant borrowing. Most of them have been in enforced austerity for years, and have only managed to avoid much tighter spending cuts because the ECB is funding governments through vast amounts of money printing (which boils down to confiscation of savings). Result: huge government spending overruns, ever-falling savings rates.

Erm... Spain and Greece has been in enforced austerity, no other countries I can think of. And neither have had typical, responsible borrowing patterns. (Nor does Italy, but it’s dodged that bullet.) (Ireland had some problems just after the crunch but a) entirely because they took on a bank they could have let fail and b) they’ve paid that off now.)

Portugal, the UK, Italy to some extent (though nowhere near the level they need). Europe is basically a continent of governments trying to cut their spending levels, some with more success than others.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#152

Post by oblio » Tue, Jul 17, 2018, 10:00 AM UTC

Four_Star wrote: post #71

chvid wrote: post #18

China is still a developing nation. That means that China can invest in infrastructure (roads, trains, airports, education) which have high real return making the increase in debt much less of a problem. This is also the reason why China has grown persistently 7-10% over the past two decades compared to USA which have grown 2-3% in the same period. Per person China's GDP is less than a fifth of the US hinting that th…

If the US decided to spend trillions of dollars a year building skyscrapers in Alaska it could be 'growing' at 7% a year too. http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/china-ghost-cities-satellit...

China is urbanizing at a rate of about 1 full US per 20 years.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#153

Post by ataturk » Tue, Jul 17, 2018, 12:08 PM UTC

wrong_variable wrote: post #31

It it like using LOC towards judging the complexity of a code base : "God 100K ! your code must be filled with so much boiler plate !" - During the Second World War Britain / US went deep in the red to fund their survival, I wonder if anyone though "We cannot afford to go into debt to defeat the Nazis !". - Debt and deficit by itself is neutral - being a creditor is not inherently a good thing just like being a debto…

Yes! There was a strong anti-war movement in the US before Pearl Harbor. Americans did not want to incur debt to fight for Europe because of the Great Depression, and because Americans believed that Europe needed to solve its own problems, remembering World War I and the huge human toll of that war only one generation ago.

I'm sure the British policy of appeasement was partially due to budgetary concerns. They walked the fine line until it was obvious the Germans were not going to let them be. And then, you know, Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain and the die was cast.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#154

Post by ChrisLomont » Tue, Jul 17, 2018, 12:48 PM UTC

_ptgt wrote: post #118

ChrisLomont wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adding infrastructure has a higher rate of return when there is less infrastructure to begin with. Adding one interstate highway system greatly increased US economic mobility. Adding a second would not have such benefit. So China, not having the infrastructure the US does, likely gets a benefit on doing projects that would be a loss in the US.

This might be an overgeneralization in this case... While generally true for developing be developed countries, are you actually familiar with China's infrastructure development practices? If one thing is for sure, it's that there isn't a shortage of bridges, trains, airplanes, and roads... The Chinese government uses infrastructure-building programs to ensure it meets its centrally-planned GDP targets and to make su…

>are you actually familiar with China's infrastructure development practices?

Yes, somewhat. They've poured lots of money into it over decades to catch up to the developed world. They're not likely there yet.

A simple example: they're close to the same area as the US, around 4 times the population, yet they have around 2/3 as much road miles. They make less electricity per capita than the US. They have less than half as many miles of train infrastructure than the US. If you look at all sorts of metrics for how much per capita that they have compared to the US (or any first world county), they still lag.

So if they want to get to first world levels in many of these areas, they still need to create more infrastructure.

As such, they might still get more benefit for certain infrastructure projects than the US.

>Meanwhile the US is notorious for crumbling infrastructure...

... among people in the US that complain without understanding how the rest of the world fares. In world rankings the US does very well on quality of infrastructure [1,2].

[1] https://lpi.worldbank.org/international/global?order=Infrast...

[2] http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2016-2017/05FullReport/TheGl...

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#155

Post by TallDave2 » Tue, Jul 17, 2018, 6:34 PM UTC

gnarcoregrizz wrote: post #145

TallDave2 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As with most projects from that era, the environmental impact study/mitigation for such an effort today would probably cost more than the entire original project, even in real dollars, even assuming you would be allowed to build it (you probably wouldn't).

Yeah. The Hoover dam would never happen nowadays, and it has undoubtedly had some environmental effects. Here is a fun example of how expensive infrastructure is here now: Irvine to Corona tunnel (11.5 mile tunnel under mountains) which would connect Orange County to Riverside County: estimated 28.3 billion [1]. Both are large population centers with large economies, separated by a small-ish mountain range. They spen…

Great example... there was also an effort to expand the Tappan Zee bridge from the 1950s, adding a couple lanes was going to cost 5-10x the original iirc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tappan_Zee_Bridge_(1955%E2%80%...

On the plus side, we have some of the cleanest air and water any civilization has ever enjoyed, so regulation isn't all bad. Maybe the Boring Company can tunnel that out for a mere $250M.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#156

Post by rdlecler1 » Wed, Jul 18, 2018, 2:50 PM UTC

EGreg wrote: post #64

rdlecler1 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly they’re getting 2x - 3x more per dollar they spend both because of intrinsic lower costs but also IP theft.

Did China agree it is theft? The US doesn’t respect trademarks like Kobe Beef, Parmesan Cheese etc. http://www.internationaltrade.law/blog/why-youve-probably-ne...

If you don’t see the difference between using a name of appellation and hacking into a computer and downloading research that cost billions of dollars then I’m afraid we can’t have a discussion about this.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#157

Post by moomin » Wed, Jul 18, 2018, 3:52 PM UTC

repolfx wrote: post #151

moomin wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Erm... Spain and Greece has been in enforced austerity, no other countries I can think of. And neither have had typical, responsible borrowing patterns. (Nor does Italy, but it’s dodged that bullet.) (Ireland had some problems just after the crunch but a) entirely because they took on a bank they could have let fail and b) they’ve paid that off now.)

Portugal, the UK, Italy to some extent (though nowhere near the level they need). Europe is basically a continent of governments trying to cut their spending levels, some with more success than others.

The UK isn't in enforced austerity. Austerity is a political choice here (driven by a desire to eliminate the deficit), and a pretty bad one (the IMF said we should be spending more, also it looks like we will be irrespective of what the public wants soon because of Brexit). Basically, whilst the UK's economic woes are self-inflicted, over-borrowing isn't the cause of them. Italy definitely has over-borrowed, but its problems go way deeper than that and I wouldn't describe its spending right now as "austerity". Portugal, like Ireland, has already dug itself out of the hole.

Going back to my original point: if increasing your revenue faster than increasing your interest payments, you can do this forever. Sure, the credit crunch gave some countries a shock, but you really should read up on exactly how egregious the Greek borrowing situation was. It was insanely unsustainable. Germany, Denmark, Sweden, France, Slovenia? They'll be fine.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#158

Post by rdlecler1 » Sat, Jul 21, 2018, 6:08 AM UTC

swfsql wrote: post #91

rdlecler1 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly they’re getting 2x - 3x more per dollar they spend both because of intrinsic lower costs but also IP theft.

IP shouldn't exist, and it hampers capitalism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAvbWeivv8o This is one of China's advantages btw, the US should abolish IP to get more competitive.

Clearly you’re not an investor because what brings confidence to investors is commercial defensibility. IP is one of those moats that encourage investment.

Re: The Chinese Government Likely Borrowed More than the US in 2017

#159

Post by godzillabrennus » Sat, Jul 21, 2018, 6:41 AM UTC

lancewiggs wrote: post #140

godzillabrennus wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA has a bit more experience building high quality skyscrapers than China.

How many has each country built in the last 10 years? China's industry has far far more experience building in the modern era.

Quantity =/= Quality