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As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

arstechnica.com

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Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#111

Post by 1996 »

WJW wrote: post #105
1996 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea - note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets, the low quality of Israeli ICBM, and the rarity of German submarines. A government can subsidize with taxes an industry as much as it wants, and force its products down its citizens throat as much as it can: it will not be able to create quality, which is essential to get a large market demand. Unless the industry is very hard to replicate for w…

It is a great idea indeed, but note: - The Gripen fighter jets (designed and built in Sweden) listing no less than 17 (!) current and confirmed future customers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen#Operational... . The list of nations considering buying those jets is even longer. - You are either incredibly well informed or not informed at all about the quality of Israeli ICBMs, but since they are o…

I fully agree that, when selling to friendly governments, quality is not much of a factor

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#112

Post by marsokod »

golem14 wrote: post #86
jlmorton wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alain Charmeau spelled this out explicitly to Der Spiegel: > Charmeau said the Ariane rocket does not launch often enough to justify the investment into reusability. (It would need about 30 launches a year to justify these costs, he said). And then Charmeau said something telling about why reusability doesn't make sense to a government-backed rocket company—jobs. > "Let us say we had ten guaranteed launches per year…

But the premise that there will only be 10 launches per year is (hopefully) false. If launches get much cheaper, there are many reasons to launch more stuff. To orbit, to the moon, to Mars, ...

Hopefully false, and you need to increase that number to at least 20, more likely 30 to pay for the investment. That is very the problem lies - the risk.

Looking at the spaceflight calendar for the rest of the year, there are 6 flights where Ariane 5 could used, if you exclude all the national missions from non-EU countries. Let's round that to 10 as this does not cover all the remaining launches. So we are at a possible market of ~20 launches a year, with the current cheap prices of SpaceX. In order to justify reusability, Arianespace/Airbus would need to plan on having a 90/100% marketshare of the very competitive market, while their US competitors could benefit from quite lucrative military missions.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#113

Post by 1996 »

ahartmetz wrote: post #109
1996 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is also why the establishment rightfully fears disruption: because they could have done marginal improvements for a long time: they chose not to for valid strategic reasons. But then there is a competitor which leapfrogs all that and who threatens to just wipe them out! Once it happens, as usual, the establishment begs/lobbies for political protection (think about jobs!) which will often be granted. But poli…

The taxi thing totally did not happen in most European countries. Taxis are just fine here (specifically: in Germany), and the labor regulations, too, so Uber can kindly take a hike.

Political connections make miracles happen!

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#114

Post by ahartmetz »

1996 wrote: post #113
ahartmetz wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The taxi thing totally did not happen in most European countries. Taxis are just fine here (specifically: in Germany), and the labor regulations, too, so Uber can kindly take a hike.

Political connections make miracles happen!

Not sure what you are talking about.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#115

Post by greglindahl »

Osmium wrote: post #69
rory096 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why would someone pay €75 million to launch 5 tonnes to GTO on the Ariane 6 when they can spend $62 million and get an extra 3.3 tonnes of capacity on the Falcon 9? Because their satellite is, perhaps, 3 tonnes, allowing them to fly in the upper berth for €45 million while another customer pays the rest in the lower berth. Capability isn't useful if your payload doesn't use it. >Based on your numbers, Falcon 9 is $9…

> Secondary payloads — especially multi-smallsat rideshare — are notoriously hard to coordinate. Can’t wait for a Lyft Line for space ;) “Your rocket will depart in 3 months.”

The company is named Spaceflight Industries.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#116

Post by marsokod »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #87
rdtsc wrote: post #10

> Even, so, Charmeau rejects comparisons to SpaceX, because he maintains that the company is heavily subsidized by the US government. Isn't ESA subsidized by the member governments? I'd understand if the criticism was coming from a private entity and they'd be complaining about SpaceX getting preferential treatment, but coming from a state sponsored agency it seems odd.

SpaceX was "subsidized" by the govt even as they provided services to the govt in exchange for money. That's called business, and the customer here is the government. It's also in the best interest, long term financially, to have an American space launch company, so we don't have to give money to the Russians or Europeans to launch our astronauts or satellites. Language matters, subsidy vs. contract is an important d…

In government contracts in the aerospace and defence, the semantic distinction blurs a little bit.

Government contracts are often inflated on purpose so that the work can leak towards other projects. Every country does that.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#117

Post by growlist »

PunchTornado wrote: post #74

My God this makes me ashamed at being European. Who are these guys and in which century do they think they are? Innovate and compete or resign and make room for others who can do it. I'm sure there are enough European engineers who can build reusable rockets.

Let's not forget who masterminded the moon missions after all: it wasn't an American.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#118

Post by 1996 »

ahartmetz wrote: post #114
1996 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political connections make miracles happen!

Not sure what you are talking about.

I mean that surely, the existence and political power of taxi unions are orthogonal to the decision by various government to protect the taxis!

The governments have just acted in the interest of the public, as usual.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#119

Post by ahartmetz »

1996 wrote: post #118
ahartmetz wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what you are talking about.

I mean that surely, the existence and political power of taxi unions are orthogonal to the decision by various government to protect the taxis! The governments have just acted in the interest of the public, as usual.

Dunno, not much happened. Uber came in, broke the law, and went. The law already existed, and the taxi organizations aren't particularly powerful. Note that anybody can start driving taxis here after some mandatory course and exam, there's no bullion system.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#120

Post by 1996 »

ahartmetz wrote: post #119
1996 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean that surely, the existence and political power of taxi unions are orthogonal to the decision by various government to protect the taxis! The governments have just acted in the interest of the public, as usual.

Dunno, not much happened. Uber came in, broke the law, and went. The law already existed, and the taxi organizations aren't particularly powerful. Note that anybody can start driving taxis here after some mandatory course and exam, there's no bullion system.

Maybe, but I would still be surprised if whoever gives this courses and exams did not lobby for them to be applied to uber

as you said, "it broke the law": the law is made to benefit incumbants, not newcomers.

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