As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist • Hacker News Board

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#101

Post by rbanffy » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:43 PM UTC

1996 wrote: post #94

WJW wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is therefore pretty simple: taxes will subsidize "industries of national interest". It is for the same reason as the US would never buy Swedish fighter jets, Israeli ICBMs or German submarines. This has been true since the beginning of the nation state.

Great idea - note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets, the low quality of Israeli ICBM, and the rarity of German submarines. A government can subsidize with taxes an industry as much as it wants, and force its products down its citizens throat as much as it can: it will not be able to create quality, which is essential to get a large market demand. Unless the industry is very hard to replicate for w…

> the low quality of Israeli ICBM,

They really don't need to threaten anyone who lives far from them.

> and the rarity of German submarines.

Which makes a lot of sense given the mission of the German Navy (which is mostly protecting a relatively small coast from almost non-existent enemies).

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#102

Post by rbanffy » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

logfromblammo wrote: post #92

golem14 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the premise that there will only be 10 launches per year is (hopefully) false. If launches get much cheaper, there are many reasons to launch more stuff. To orbit, to the moon, to Mars, ...

Right. You build the rocket for the 10 guaranteed launches, then you move right on to building the next rocket, because you'll need another in case you lose the first. Then you build another after that, and that one can put up some payloads that were not-so-guaranteed. Then you build another after that, and by then, some of the labor that used to go completely into construction is now reconditioning and inspecting th…

Consider you'd need to invest not only in manufacturing the rockets, but also on shipping them to launch sites, increasing launch site capacities to deal with extra launches, adding extra capacity for fueling the extra rockets, to prepare and mate the payloads (that'll need to be built by someone, somewhere)... Nothing there is really cheap.

In the end, the rocket is not really the most expensive part. It's just the part that, until recently, was expensive and thrown away after a single use.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#103

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

1996 wrote: post #94

WJW wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is therefore pretty simple: taxes will subsidize "industries of national interest". It is for the same reason as the US would never buy Swedish fighter jets, Israeli ICBMs or German submarines. This has been true since the beginning of the nation state.

Great idea - note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets, the low quality of Israeli ICBM, and the rarity of German submarines. A government can subsidize with taxes an industry as much as it wants, and force its products down its citizens throat as much as it can: it will not be able to create quality, which is essential to get a large market demand. Unless the industry is very hard to replicate for w…

> note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets

Er, what?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#104

Post by marsokod » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:49 PM UTC

rbanffy wrote: post #97

1996 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will make even more sense is when he says to his teams: "Farewell, it was really nice working with you all, too bad the foreign competition slashed prices and bankrupted us"

There are a number of reasons why Europe would prefer a more expensive European launcher over a cheap American one. More or less the same reasons the US military has preferred pre-SpaceX American expendable launchers to superior and cheaper European ones for a lot of missions.

Yes, Europe wants their own launchers anyway as the access to US launches is still a hazardous endeavour for critical payloads. And the recent moves of the US international politics are not going in the right direction.

As long as there is no reciprocity in the full access to the markets, we will live a semi-closed gardens. If the markets open, it won't take long for the European companies to develop a reusable launcher capability. The technology and the knowledge exists already, but there is no political or financial incentive to do that right now.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#105

Post by WJW » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

1996 wrote: post #94

WJW wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is therefore pretty simple: taxes will subsidize "industries of national interest". It is for the same reason as the US would never buy Swedish fighter jets, Israeli ICBMs or German submarines. This has been true since the beginning of the nation state.

Great idea - note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets, the low quality of Israeli ICBM, and the rarity of German submarines. A government can subsidize with taxes an industry as much as it wants, and force its products down its citizens throat as much as it can: it will not be able to create quality, which is essential to get a large market demand. Unless the industry is very hard to replicate for w…

It is a great idea indeed, but note:

- The Gripen fighter jets (designed and built in Sweden) listing no less than 17 (!) current and confirmed future customers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen#Operational.... The list of nations considering buying those jets is even longer.

- You are either incredibly well informed or not informed at all about the quality of Israeli ICBMs, but since they are ordering submarines capable of launching ICBMs and are capable of launching satellites into orbit, the general state of Israeli ballistic capability is definitely high enough to deliver warheads anywhere on the planet.

- Allegedly, the latest generation of German submarines is good enough to penetrate the defenses of a US navy carrier group (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_212_submarine#Operations). They are in service with both the German and Italian navies with four more ordered by the Norwegians.

Quality helps with generating demand but it is not enough, especially when selling to governments. If you don't believe this, please consider if SpaceX had still gotten the NSA launch contracts if SpaceX had been a Chinese or Russian company.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#106

Post by romwell » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

yellowcherry wrote: post #6

I have no idea what this headline is supposed to mean. "Vows to resist" Resist what, exactly?

The headline is horrible.

"Steamroller surges"? Really? Has the author seen a surging steamroller? That's not what steamrollers do. It's hard to stop a steamroller, yes, but its moves aren't sudden. It doesn't suddenly accelerate. You can see the steamroller a mile coming. It starts slowly and goes slowly.

And as you noted, you don't usually resist steamrollers. That's a silly thing to do.

Reminds me of the singing octopus from Orwell's examples of how not to write:[1]

> The sole aim of a metaphor is to call up a visual image. When these images clash — as in The Fascist octopus has sung its swan song, the jackboot is thrown into the melting pot — it can be taken as certain that the writer is not seeing a mental image of the objects he is naming; in other words he is not really thinking.

[1]http://www.orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit...

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#107

Post by marsokod » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 9:58 PM UTC

robszumski wrote: post #90

Tuna-Fish wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not just about having makework jobs. In order for the engines to be both cheap an reliable, there needs to be continuous line production. An engine put together by workers who build rocket engines for their living is better than one built by people who make rocket engines 1 month of a year, and for the line to work properly there are limits on how slowly things can be built. This means that if your engine dem…

This also exposes the shrewdness in using a rocket with 9 or 27 of your engines, instead of 2 or 3, which allows you to keep a continuous pace with a smaller sized production line vs having to stand it up and down. This is all aside from the reliability/engine out gains.

Yup, a mistake done in the 80s with Ariane 5 architecture, that we are still paying. Smaller scale means slower changes and this is being partially addressed with Ariane 6 and Vega C.

Similar issue with the use of solid propulsion, mainly used to also keep it in line with military needs.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#108

Post by marsokod » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 10:07 PM UTC

PunchTornado wrote: post #74

My God this makes me ashamed at being European. Who are these guys and in which century do they think they are? Innovate and compete or resign and make room for others who can do it. I'm sure there are enough European engineers who can build reusable rockets.

Oh yes there are enough of them. But to compete you need fair rules and open access to your competitors market, and that is not the case currently. What they are asking for is only the same protections as the US companies currently enjoy.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#109

Post by ahartmetz » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 10:19 PM UTC

1996 wrote: post #79

grecy wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This mentality is what's holding back the establishment in any field from doing anything radical. The status quo is worth trillions and trillions of dollars, and a lot of people will fight very, very hard to keep it that way, even when it's horribly inefficient, outdated and just plain stupid. Electric cars? Nope, we've invested too much in ICE R&D and need to pay it back over another 100 years. Solar? Nope, we promi…

And this is also why the establishment rightfully fears disruption: because they could have done marginal improvements for a long time: they chose not to for valid strategic reasons. But then there is a competitor which leapfrogs all that and who threatens to just wipe them out! Once it happens, as usual, the establishment begs/lobbies for political protection (think about jobs!) which will often be granted. But poli…

The taxi thing totally did not happen in most European countries. Taxis are just fine here (specifically: in Germany), and the labor regulations, too, so Uber can kindly take a hike.

Re: As the SpaceX steamroller surges, European rocket industry vows to resist

#110

Post by 1996 » Fri, Jul 20, 2018, 10:25 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #103

1996 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea - note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets, the low quality of Israeli ICBM, and the rarity of German submarines. A government can subsidize with taxes an industry as much as it wants, and force its products down its citizens throat as much as it can: it will not be able to create quality, which is essential to get a large market demand. Unless the industry is very hard to replicate for w…

> note however the lack of existance of Swedish fighter jets Er, what? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen

My bad.

"Gripen has achieved moderate success in sales to nations in Central Europe, South Africa and Southeast Asia; bribery has been suspected in some of these procurements, but authorities closed the investigation in 2009"

Thanks to bribery, this wonderful piece of technology could be sold to major world powers like South Africa and Hungary.