Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
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Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#2The GAO report this is based on: https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/693035.pdf.
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#3[deleted]
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#4...by a little bit (mostly due to Boeing's greater familiarity with NASA paperwork requirements.)
"Based on NASA's "schedule risk analysis" from April, the agency estimates that Boeing will reach this milestone sometime between May 1, 2019, and August 30, 2020. For SpaceX, the estimated range is August 1, 2019, and November 30, 2020. The analysis' average certification date was December, 2019, for Boeing and January, 2020, for SpaceX."
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#5...by a little bit (mostly due to Boeing's greater familiarity with NASA paperwork requirements.) "Based on NASA's "schedule risk analysis" from April, the agency estimates that Boeing will reach this milestone sometime between May 1, 2019, and August 30, 2020. For SpaceX, the estimated range is August 1, 2019, and November 30, 2020. The analysis' average certification date was December, 2019, for Boeing and January,…
> NASA's "schedule risk analysis"
Last time I looked at this, the firms set their own milestones. So for one, Boeing's milestone deliverable was a PowerPoint presentation; SpaceX's was a crew abort demonstration.
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#6...by a little bit (mostly due to Boeing's greater familiarity with NASA paperwork requirements.) "Based on NASA's "schedule risk analysis" from April, the agency estimates that Boeing will reach this milestone sometime between May 1, 2019, and August 30, 2020. For SpaceX, the estimated range is August 1, 2019, and November 30, 2020. The analysis' average certification date was December, 2019, for Boeing and January,…
> NASA's "schedule risk analysis" Last time I looked at this, the firms set their own milestones. So for one, Boeing's milestone deliverable was a PowerPoint presentation; SpaceX's was a crew abort demonstration.
Welcome to the world of government contracting where success depends much more on your ability to work the system then your ability to deliver anything.
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#7President Bush promised a shuttle replacement by 2014 when he canceled the shuttle.
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#8President Bush promised a shuttle replacement by 2014 when he canceled the shuttle.
President Bush also proclaimed "Mission Accomplished".
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#9Is the Boeing team that worked on the schedule for the 787 Dreamliner involved in this schedule?
Re: Internally, NASA believes Boeing ahead of SpaceX in commercial crew
#10...by a little bit (mostly due to Boeing's greater familiarity with NASA paperwork requirements.) "Based on NASA's "schedule risk analysis" from April, the agency estimates that Boeing will reach this milestone sometime between May 1, 2019, and August 30, 2020. For SpaceX, the estimated range is August 1, 2019, and November 30, 2020. The analysis' average certification date was December, 2019, for Boeing and January,…
Based on the linked GAO report, it doesn't even seem like the "little bit" is justified, nevermind the headline that Boeing is in any way meaningfully "ahead". The point of the GAO report is not to assess Boeing's and SpaceX's progress, but to assess NASA's ability to manage the project and its contractors.
From page 10:
> Boeing and SpaceX continue to make progress developing their crew transportation systems, but both contractors have further delayed the certification milestone to early 2019. These changes have occurred as the contractors continue to work to aggressive schedules, and they have had to delay key events regularly. Further delays are likely as the Commercial Crew Program’s schedule risk analysis shows that the certification milestone is likely to further slip.
> In addition, as of mid-June 2018, NASA officials told us that these dates may change soon but that both contractors have not yet provided official updates to their schedules to NASA...While NASA has begun to discuss potential options, it currently does not have a contingency plan for how to ensure an uninterrupted presence on the ISS beyond 2019*
A better headline would be:
NASA can't tell how late Boeing and SpaceX will be with commercial crew