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Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

latimes.com

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Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#71

Post by mikeash »

Retric wrote: post #66
ryanmercer wrote: post #50

Hopefully for export, otherwise they'll unfortunately mostly be powered by coal :(

China uses more coal and produces more CO2 for electricity, but uses less total fossil fuels (60.6%) than the US (64.2%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China VS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Unit... China has a significantly higher % of it's electricity generated from renewables than the USA and a much faster adoption curve. So, adding electric cars is still a very lar…

The US is about 1/3rd coal, 1/3rd gas, and the rest carbon neutral (mostly nuclear). China is about 2/3rds coal, a tiny bit of other burning stuff, and the rest carbon neutral (mostly hydro).

Looks to me like the US is much better for emissions. Especially since US coal plants are probably a lot cleaner.

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#72

Post by nothrabannosir »

drfuchs wrote: post #69
nothrabannosir wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is China hostile to clean tech? I thought they were one of the biggest driving forces behind clean energy out there. They also pollute, a lot, because they produce a lot of energy full stop. Afaik they do everything and anything, right now. Burning coal doesn’t make you anti clean energy , it just makes you a polluter. It’s a bit ironic , but then again: welcome to China :p

Throwaway5752 is referring not to China, but rather the USA, as having “single party control of a government that is hostile to clean tech and initiating a trade war with the worlds largest consumer market for the next 50 years“.

That makes complete sense, and I totally missed it. Sorry, and thanks!

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#73

Post by Retric »

mikeash wrote: post #71
Retric wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China uses more coal and produces more CO2 for electricity, but uses less total fossil fuels (60.6%) than the US (64.2%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China VS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Unit... China has a significantly higher % of it's electricity generated from renewables than the USA and a much faster adoption curve. So, adding electric cars is still a very lar…

The US is about 1/3rd coal, 1/3rd gas, and the rest carbon neutral (mostly nuclear). China is about 2/3rds coal, a tiny bit of other burning stuff, and the rest carbon neutral (mostly hydro). Looks to me like the US is much better for emissions. Especially since US coal plants are probably a lot cleaner.

China is ~56.4% coal and dropping fast which is a long way from 2/3's. This is down from 81% in 2007 so having recent numbers is really important.

USA happens to have a lot of natural gas which is better than coal for the environment but still much worse than solar/wind etc. Further, because they still use a lot of coal and they use more total fossil fuels it's not as a big a difference as you might think. Really the important question is what is going to come online to fuel electric cars, and that mix is vastly better than oil especially when you include extraction, transportation, and refinement.

PS: China is something like ~58% coal equivalent vs ~47% USA coal equivalent (assuming natural gas produces 1/2 the carbon of coal.)

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#74

Post by calvinbhai »

kang wrote: post #30
ChuckMcM wrote: post #3

I wonder what other countries they considered, did they consider Mexico ? (Ford has plants there) or Brazil? Or perhaps India?

India would be a really poor choice compared to china due to corruption externalized costs

I'd say the current administration in India has the willpower and execution to bring big names. Problem is with an ecosystem including the necessary infra to set up something like this.

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#75

Post by jeffreyrogers »

mbesto wrote: post #47
mkhalil wrote: post #18

Tesla should be very wary of the very real threat from corporate espionage in China. Brining a factory to China would allow a bad actor to really get into enterprise and create even better clones. Tesla wouldn't be able to keep up financially if Chinese manufactures built cars using Tesla research resources. side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company that sells its IP to manufactures instead of actually…

> side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company TESLA's secret is that they're a battery company. I don't think people understand how big of an issue energy storage is, and what the resulting opportunity is. Energy storage to Tesla is what AWS is to Amazon.

Panasonic makes Tesla's batteries, and as far as I know Tesla doesn't have any proven battery technology that's better than anyone else's. I know people who work on battery technology. Pretty much every chemistry department at a major university has people working on batteries. You often see publications about breakthrough's in battery tech from these universities. Very few of these alleged breakthrough's make it to market, so I'm skeptical that Tesla can succeed where so many others have not.

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#76

Post by cam3ham »

pfortuny wrote: post #10

They seem to say so each year... Just from 2016: https://mashable.com/2016/06/24/tesla-factory-china-9-billio...

yeah, but now they've signed a deal. the negativity on hackernews nowadays is hilarious. are you all depressed or something?

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#77

Post by [deleted] »

mkhalil wrote: post #18

Tesla should be very wary of the very real threat from corporate espionage in China. Brining a factory to China would allow a bad actor to really get into enterprise and create even better clones. Tesla wouldn't be able to keep up financially if Chinese manufactures built cars using Tesla research resources. side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company that sells its IP to manufactures instead of actually…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#78

Post by codeulike »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #75
mbesto wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company TESLA's secret is that they're a battery company. I don't think people understand how big of an issue energy storage is, and what the resulting opportunity is. Energy storage to Tesla is what AWS is to Amazon.

Panasonic makes Tesla's batteries, and as far as I know Tesla doesn't have any proven battery technology that's better than anyone else's. I know people who work on battery technology. Pretty much every chemistry department at a major university has people working on batteries. You often see publications about breakthrough's in battery tech from these universities. Very few of these alleged breakthrough's make it to…

A battery pack in a Tesla car has much more to it than the cells themselves. There are cooling systems, monitoring systems etc. Tesla's battery packs are way ahead of anyone elses and produced at a lower cost per kWh

E.g. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/08/18/ho...

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#79

Post by GW150914 »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #75
mbesto wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company TESLA's secret is that they're a battery company. I don't think people understand how big of an issue energy storage is, and what the resulting opportunity is. Energy storage to Tesla is what AWS is to Amazon.

Panasonic makes Tesla's batteries, and as far as I know Tesla doesn't have any proven battery technology that's better than anyone else's. I know people who work on battery technology. Pretty much every chemistry department at a major university has people working on batteries. You often see publications about breakthrough's in battery tech from these universities. Very few of these alleged breakthrough's make it to…

You have to understand the narrative you’re responding to. It goes something like this: Elon Musk doesn’t care about making money, he wants to save the world. The money he makes, he just wants to spend on achieving that goal. SpaceX isn’t about making money as a cargo service to Low Earth Orbit, it’s about establishing Mars colonies and the LEO technology is just fundraising for Mars. Tesla isn’t a car company, it’s trying to bring unit price of batteries down, it’s a solar/battery company, the future of clean energy. The whole car thing is just fundraising/PR for world-saving business.

If you point out that Tesla is a car company using Panasonic batteries, you get speeches about how they’ll be the next GE and you don’t get it. If you point out that Tesla is up to its eyeballs in debt and can’t peoduce even the cars it tries to make without serious flaws, in a tent, you get speeches about WSJ, Big Oil, Shortsellimf conspiracies. The True Believers ignore the reality of a publicly traded company struggling, in favor of a narrative spun around Musk’s tweets and promises.

It’s a cult, I think one born of existential dread about environmental collapse and a desire to see it fixed by a visionary billionaire who tells them they don’t have to make any sacrifices, just buy a fast car. I think that arguing with them ends up with a similar response as criticizing Google 7 or 8 years ago. Some things just have to play out, and until then it’s all “crush the non-believers!”

Edit: Again, don’t just downvote, downvote and rebut.

Re: Tesla plans China factory that can make 500,000 vehicles a year

#80

Post by gamblor956 »

staunch wrote: post #37
mkhalil wrote: post #18

Tesla should be very wary of the very real threat from corporate espionage in China. Brining a factory to China would allow a bad actor to really get into enterprise and create even better clones. Tesla wouldn't be able to keep up financially if Chinese manufactures built cars using Tesla research resources. side thought: Maybe TESLA turns into a research company that sells its IP to manufactures instead of actually…

The advantage of a great technology company is its ability to continue innovating, make hard decisions, and maintain a commitment to quality. You could take all of Tesla's IP and hand it to any company and they couldn't do anything with it except use it to burn money. Tesla is the first choice for great engineers interested in its fields of work. The reason is that Elon Musk wants to help them do great work and he ac…

You could take all of Tesla's IP and hand it to any company and they couldn't do anything with it except use it to burn money.

So far, that's all Tesla has managed to accomplish as well...

The advantage of a great technology company is its ability to continue innovating, make hard decisions, and maintain a commitment to quality.

One noted problem that Tesla faces is that Musk is frequently unable to make hard decisions because he spends so much time micromanaging...he's easily distracted by the latest new "thing" he wants each car to have. As for quality...many people who have ridden in or owned a Tesla would dispute the notion that Teslas are quality cars. You can get much better built ICE cars for a quarter of the money, hybrids for half the money, and competing EVs for 2/3rds of the cost of a Tesla.

Tesla is the first choice for great engineers interested in its fields of work. The reason is that Elon Musk wants to help them do great work and he actually knows how to help them do it.

The many engineers and AI scientists who have left Tesla in the past year would strongly disagree with that statement. Musk has frequently forced his engineers to do things based on marketing goals rather than sound engineering principles.

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