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Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

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Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#341
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning: you could at least send messages and files across the network, which was incredibly useful to academia and the military and was orders of magnitude more efficient than any alternative. How is running an ICO not useful to people? Get lot of money with only doing a lousy whitepaper, drive fe…

If you consider being the beneficiary of a boom in what is effectively fraud a "good thing," sure. I can driver a Ferrari if I literally rob people, too, but most people would consider the people I've hurt in the process when evaluating the merits of my actions.

What does the market say? ICOs seem to be very popular so effectively quite a lot of people seem to consider them a good thing, at least currently. Does useful mean the same as ethical? Those people do ICO's to raise money from other people, and it seems to work for them.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#342
post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it would be really cool to be able to verify the ownership of any property on earth by checking Bitcoin or Eth block chain, but there would have to be a way to have authority unanimously change the record.

Beyond curiosity, what practical purpose would such a tool serve vs other methods of verifying assets?

by signing with a keypair you could prove to anyone online you owned something. to list a house or get a loan or mortgage you could use this.

a really neat case for this would be lost items. if each cellphone had its IMEI and your keypair associated you could prove you owned something lost. or if found someone could look you up to return it. you could buy a game or software once and never have to worry about a serial key.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eventually someone will realize that the smarter move is to create sustainable value over time. Most ICO's - if not all of them - are powered by the greater fool theory, sustainable value isn't really on the table. I see value in the blockchain and some in BTC (but not as much as others apparently do), but the whole ICO concept seems to be just a way to transfer wealth from greedy suckers to even greedier suckers.

why would a company trying to build a product be a greater fool example? you mean all startups that fail at very high rates are also that?

> why would a company trying to build a product be a greater fool example?

I think you sort of missed the point.

> you mean all startups that fail at very high rates are also that?

No, I did not mean that.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#344
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's true, but the degrees of freedom are different. The node processing your transaction cannot steal your money in crypto. It can only choose not to broadcast your transaction, and they are also in perfect competition with all the other nodes. Which means that if one node chooses not to process your tx, another will soon. Hence we circle back to exactly what I said in the last line of my comment: https://news.y…

You're right, sort of, but I don't think those two things are really distinct capabilities. You trust your bank, because your bank could theoretically forge a transaction to themselves of all of your money. Or just tell you that your balance is zero and refuse to give it to you.

I don't really follow what you're saying now or how it related to the previous discussion to be honest. But to respond to what you currently said, I trust my bank because there's a chain of trust between us via the government and its relevant laws, not because of what the bank itself is or isn't physically capable of doing.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#345
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, sort of, but I don't think those two things are really distinct capabilities. You trust your bank, because your bank could theoretically forge a transaction to themselves of all of your money. Or just tell you that your balance is zero and refuse to give it to you.

I don't really follow what you're saying now or how it related to the previous discussion to be honest. But to respond to what you currently said, I trust my bank because there's a chain of trust between us via the government and its relevant laws, not because of what the bank itself is or isn't physically capable of doing.

This is the last line to which you were referring, right?

> To me the value seems to be that nobody can forge a transaction based on your currency (or whatever it is you have), not the idea that you somehow don't need to trust anyone when you do transfer value.

What I meant is that the capability that "nobody can forge a transaction" and "don't need to trust anyone" are actually the same thing. You are forced to trust your bank because your bank could forge a transaction on your behalf. You trust them not to do this. That is the nature of your trust in them. Blockchain eliminates this weakness, and it is in that sense that you do not have to trust a 3rd party.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#346
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is true, but exchanges have become the de facto on/off ramp for cryptos. If I want to acquire bitcoin without mining, how am I going to do it other than buying from a centralized entity? Sure, that's true. But once you own them, they're yours to do with as you please. You can also buy them from someone peer to peer if you really want to onramp in a 'decentralized' way.

> You can also buy them from someone peer to peer if you really want to onramp in a 'decentralized' way. This makes it seem like you can onramp via an exchange and still maintain all the benefits of decentralization. If I don't onramp in a decentralized way then there will also be a centralized entity with tremendous power.

What do you mean by that?

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#347
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are open questions. And it may be that blockchain will be an underlying infrastructure that is mostly used by large, centralized entities to settle between each other. But if that's the equilibrium into which we settle, individuals will still have the option to control their own assets in a true sense, even if most people choose not to.

The question is why would large, centralised entities use a blockchain to settle between each other? Large, centralised entities generally can and do trust each other to the extent required, so won't ever need a blockchain because they can use a more efficient system...

It may unfortunately be path-dependent, and the large entities that exist now will not choose to convert. However, if you imagine a parallel universe in which blockchain was invented before large institutions formed, then those institutions may have formed around Blockchains, because then they wouldn't have to trust each other.

Right now, getting into the 'trusted financial institution' list is extremely difficult. It's a slow, incremental process that takes decades of good behavior and careful stewardship. Part of the reason it's so difficult and so heavily regulated is because of how much trust we place in these institutions. If we did not have to trust them so much, it would be easier to become one. It would have less need for regulation. Incumbents would be weaker, and the industry as a whole would therefore be healthier. This is sort of an abstract point, but I think it's the truest sense in which blockchain may change the world: by commoditizing trust.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#348
Some thoughts from the inside. My company (Inbot) is currently in the pre ICO phase: we're selling tokens but not on the blockchain yet. We're very hesitant to move to the next phase precisely because of the tendency of many ICO companies to collapse almost straight away. Investors dumping your coin on the day of the ICO is kind of deadly for its valuation and if your ICO is attracting that kind of investors, something is indeed wrong. Quite many ICOs are set up such that this is actually the goal rather than something they want to avoid (pump and dump). We're kind of going against the trend here by planning to survive this initial phase (hard).

The reason many companies are doing ICOs regardless is because it actually makes sense if you look at it as a financial instrument that gets you funded quickly to the extend where you get similar capitalization comparable to a big series A or even B round.

Like with high risk investments, ROI is pretty bad; except when it is not. Most ICOs will fail but some will not. This space continues to be so hot on the premise that there are a few unicorn ICOs out there that are actually going to make it. Ironically, this is leading to a lot of misguided investments by, well, idiots. This in turn is leading to a lot of successful attempts to separate these idiots from their cash. Blame the idiots, not the ICOs. Hence Dogecoin, PonziCoin V3 (this is a thing !!!), and similarly poorly veiled scams. I applaud these people for being able to make so much money with so little effort.

There are many issues with dapps. IMHO it doesn't make any sense to write dapps right now unless your roadmap spans several years because the technology is very immature, the infrastructure is not there, and the fixes are years out from becoming proven to the point where you can rely on them to function as advertised. This requires more than proof of concept. Ethereum and bitcoin are out there with many users that are trying to exploit it in any way they can. That makes it battle tested. Alternative technology stacks exist but lack this type of user base and scrutiny.

Most of these alternative stacks still have serious flaws conceptually and practically. Quite a few of them seem to be moving the problem rather than solving it. What's needed is orders of magnitude improvements to throughput and scale for dapps to be usable by the masses. 50k transactions sounds nice until you realize that is globally and needs to service the entire ecosystem of dapp applications. That's not a lot compared to a modern db running on off the shelf hardware. Once users actually show up, that kind of traffic can be caused by a spike in usage on a single dapp. If you have many of those, that will be happening all the time.

Right now the only things dapps make sense for are things that are relatively high value so you can justify the cost and have enough per transaction revenue and very low in transaction volume so that the whole thing doesn't collapse when you actually get some traction. That pretty much narrows it down to limited amount of trading of coins on top of ethereum, which is indeed the dominant type of dapp in use today.

Some successful ICOs are actually about fixing this problem. They are long term investments in tech companies that are likely to fail but very lucrative if they don't. E.g. Telegram is a high risk investment but they are now well funded and have enough runway to execute whatever it is they are doing for the next few years. And they have a decent tech team. Similarly IOTA, QTUM, HashGraph, and others are well funded companies well capable of executing roadmaps that will take quite long to deliver results. Are those bad investments? Not if they succeed. Is that any different from e.g. the likes of Google bank rolling Magic Leap? Or indeed any kind of VC tech investment?

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#349
post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really follow what you're saying now or how it related to the previous discussion to be honest. But to respond to what you currently said, I trust my bank because there's a chain of trust between us via the government and its relevant laws, not because of what the bank itself is or isn't physically capable of doing.

This is the last line to which you were referring, right? > To me the value seems to be that nobody can forge a transaction based on your currency (or whatever it is you have), not the idea that you somehow don't need to trust anyone when you do transfer value. What I meant is that the capability that "nobody can forge a transaction" and "don't need to trust anyone" are actually the same thing. You are forced to trus…

> What I meant is that the capability that "nobody can forge a transaction" and "don't need to trust anyone" are actually the same thing. You are forced to trust your bank because your bank could forge a transaction on your behalf. You trust them not to do this. That is the nature of your trust in them. Blockchain eliminates this weakness, and it is in that sense that you do not have to trust a 3rd party.

If this is really what you're saying, then you've completely changed your argument 180 degrees to match that of me and the above commenter (which is cool!), because earlier you said the exact opposite. Specifically, when the above commenter said "you have to trust the network to maintain the value", you rebutted that that "is clearly not the point. The transfer itself does not require trust. That is the value." Now that you've concluded that the actually is trustless storage rather than in trustless transfer, yes, I think we are in agreement!

Notwithstanding the above, by the way, it simply isn't true that "I am forced to trust my bank because they could forge a transaction on my behalf". It's actually the opposite... I don't trust my bank for precisely that reason. Rather, as I stated above, the reason I nevertheless end up ultimately trusting my bank is that I trust the government will have my back if the bank decides to screw me over illegally. Again: it has nothing to do with the bank's capabilities or lack thereof, and everything to do with the legal system.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#350
post #203
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. What if we put "beginning" as in "before it was even called the Internet"? Indeed, ARPANET, which came online in 1969, saw fast growth in the United States in the 70s. Nodes came online to use it , not to make a quick buck. The government subsidized it because its potential use was obvious. Email started being used in 1972, FTP in 1973. To compare these world-changing technologies that were invented and used merel…

I would definitely argue that blockchain is closer to the arpanet days than it is to the world wide web days. This stuff is so early. A lot of the really enabling infrastructure doesn't exist, and won't exist for years. Most builders have no idea what the true strengths and limitations are. It'll get there, but it's not a 2020 type of get there. Maybe 2025.

Blockchain is closer to the early days of spam than anything else.
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