Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized • Hacker News Board

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#111

Post by QML » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:15 PM UTC

shawn wrote: post #56

jacquesm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eventually someone will realize that the smarter move is to create sustainable value over time. Most ICO's - if not all of them - are powered by the greater fool theory, sustainable value isn't really on the table. I see value in the blockchain and some in BTC (but not as much as others apparently do), but the whole ICO concept seems to be just a way to transfer wealth from greedy suckers to even greedier suckers.

One promising example is SpankChain. It's a cryptocurrency specifically designed for the porn market. Traditionally, it's hard to make money in porn due to fraud and chargebacks. Most payment processors also won't touch you. But crypto has no chargebacks, so it's a natural fit. One could argue that if you have to dip down to the level of porn just to find some value, ICOs are worth dismissing. But I would say that it…

Why not use another, more liquid cryptocurrency like BTC or ETH then?

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#112

Post by tenaciousDaniel » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:18 PM UTC

darawk wrote: post #98

hudon wrote: post #23

You can see the state (volume, # daily users) of some of these promised "dapps" here: https://dappradar.com . It is indeed a barren wasteland. And when a new popular ICO comes along, the Ethereum network struggles and fees skyrocket. It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning: you could at least send messages and files across the netw…

> It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning That really depends on where you put 'beginning'. But more to the point, blockchains are useful now, just like the internet was. They're just not useful for all the things that are being promised (yet). Also, just like the internet wasn't. > Now, all we see is rampant fraud and a complete d…

yep. the internet was around for years before it was viable. So were computers.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#113

Post by foepys » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:18 PM UTC

NathanCH wrote: post #43

hudon wrote: post #23

You can see the state (volume, # daily users) of some of these promised "dapps" here: https://dappradar.com . It is indeed a barren wasteland. And when a new popular ICO comes along, the Ethereum network struggles and fees skyrocket. It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning: you could at least send messages and files across the netw…

Global network consumes more energy than tiny, sparsely populated country. Hmm.

Iceland has some heavy industry like aluminum smelting which requires massive amounts of electricity. The energy consumption is also including private households. Meanwhile Ethereum is handling currently less than 1,000 users in its core business: dApps.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#114

Post by MBCook » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:19 PM UTC

shawn wrote: post #56

jacquesm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eventually someone will realize that the smarter move is to create sustainable value over time. Most ICO's - if not all of them - are powered by the greater fool theory, sustainable value isn't really on the table. I see value in the blockchain and some in BTC (but not as much as others apparently do), but the whole ICO concept seems to be just a way to transfer wealth from greedy suckers to even greedier suckers.

One promising example is SpankChain. It's a cryptocurrency specifically designed for the porn market. Traditionally, it's hard to make money in porn due to fraud and chargebacks. Most payment processors also won't touch you. But crypto has no chargebacks, so it's a natural fit. One could argue that if you have to dip down to the level of porn just to find some value, ICOs are worth dismissing. But I would say that it…

You’re just moving the problem though. The sites won’t get chargebacks, the groups selling the coin to consumers will.

Buy it with another crypto currency? Problem moves one step down the road again.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#115

Post by mehrdadn » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:19 PM UTC

darawk wrote: post #90

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> without having to trust anyone has value There is a lot of trust involved in a cryptocurrency transfer. You have to trust your technical competence to securely mount your wallet. You have to trust the wallet you're sending money to is the wallet it's supposed to go to. You have to trust the person you're sending money todo what you're paying them to. You have to trust the network to maintain the value and convertib…

> There is a lot of trust involved in a cryptocurrency transfer. You have to trust your technical competence to have securely mounted your wallet. You have to trust the wallet you're sending money to is the wallet it's supposed to go to. You have to trust the person you're sending money to will do what you're paying them to do. You have to trust the network to maintain the value of the currency you're sending and rec…

> The transfer itself does not require trust. That's the value.

Don't you need to trust nodes that they'll pass down and/or include process your transaction, and that they'll do so in a timely fashion? Which seems just like trusting that, say, your bank or the Mastercard servers will process your transaction properly? Not to mention the more mundane aspects like the fact that you still need to trust that your ISP won't cut off your access to the network, etc...

To me the value seems to be that nobody can forge a transaction based on your currency (or whatever it is you have), not the idea that you somehow don't need to trust anyone when you do transfer value.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#116

Post by hudon » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:20 PM UTC

darawk wrote: post #98

hudon wrote: post #23

You can see the state (volume, # daily users) of some of these promised "dapps" here: https://dappradar.com . It is indeed a barren wasteland. And when a new popular ICO comes along, the Ethereum network struggles and fees skyrocket. It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning: you could at least send messages and files across the netw…

> It's weird because people compare it to the early days of the Internet... but the early Internet was useful from its beginning That really depends on where you put 'beginning'. But more to the point, blockchains are useful now, just like the internet was. They're just not useful for all the things that are being promised (yet). Also, just like the internet wasn't. > Now, all we see is rampant fraud and a complete d…

1. What if we put "beginning" as in "before it was even called the Internet"? Indeed, ARPANET, which came online in 1969, saw fast growth in the United States in the 70s. Nodes came online to use it, not to make a quick buck. The government subsidized it because its potential use was obvious. Email started being used in 1972, FTP in 1973. To compare these world-changing technologies that were invented and used merely 5 years after ARPANET came online to CryptoKitties, which is the most useful thing to come out of a decade of work on blockchains, is a joke! And it's barely funny!

2. Of course the effect on the environment will continue to be pointed out: Ethereum's energy consumption is growing and the use cases are nowhere to be seen. So far, "plans" in the cryptocurrency space never go as expected. Satoshi didn't expect persistent forks and altcoins, for example. Vitalik advertised Ethereum as a "world computer" but it can barely stand when only 14k users are trading cartoon kitties on it. He also said Ethereum's "code is law", until he changed his mind and forked the network due to a hack. Please excuse skeptics for holding accountable those that do not have a history of consistent and successful results.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#117

Post by api » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:20 PM UTC

NathanCH wrote: post #51

matte_black wrote: post #29

Is there legit money to be made in ICOs without running a fraud?

Forget money, I would like to know of one legit ICO. One single ICO that has a product. One.

Brave browser, Sia storage network, ... and uhh... Cryptokitties?

The vast vast majority are vaporware.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#118

Post by lucasmullens » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:21 PM UTC

blocked_again wrote: post #109

Like it or not blockhains are here to stay. Nobody is going to run behind VCs looking for elite money in 20 years from now. Isnt it obvious? Blockhains are going to redistribute the wealth from the wealthy elite few to the masses. More and more wealth is being generated from nowhere. Just because there are some spammy ICOs now doesn't mean it's the end of the blockhain and ICO. This is going to be another rare instan…

How would blockchains redistribute wealth away from the wealthy?

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#119

Post by xur17 » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:21 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57

pembrook wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They just require "adults in the room." You mean like regulators and trusted intermediaries? Due diligence conducted by independent third parties? Like the real financial system has always had? So basically, we went through this whole ICO bubble to realize that things are the way they are for a reason.

> we went through this whole ICO bubble to realize that things are the way they are for a reason That may be overly reductive. My views on several rules changed as a result of observing the ICO phenomenon. For example, I used to be skeptical about accredited investor requirments. Turns out, they're super necessary! On the other hand, I think Regulation D could be massively simplified--from a required paperwork perspe…

> For example, I used to be skeptical about accredited investor requirements.

I agree that we should probably have regulations in place to protect people from scams, but accredited investors are just people with > $1M or > $200k in income over the past 2 years. Basically a way to filter for 'wealthy' people that can afford to lose the money.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#120

Post by JumpCrisscross » Mon, Jul 09, 2018, 9:23 PM UTC

xur17 wrote: post #119

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we went through this whole ICO bubble to realize that things are the way they are for a reason That may be overly reductive. My views on several rules changed as a result of observing the ICO phenomenon. For example, I used to be skeptical about accredited investor requirments. Turns out, they're super necessary! On the other hand, I think Regulation D could be massively simplified--from a required paperwork perspe…

> For example, I used to be skeptical about accredited investor requirements. I agree that we should probably have regulations in place to protect people from scams, but accredited investors are just people with > $1M or > $200k in income over the past 2 years. Basically a way to filter for 'wealthy' people that can afford to lose the money.

> a way to filter for 'wealthy' people that can afford to lose the money

The part I didn't appreciate is it's also a filter for people who can hire a lawyer/adviser to conduct basic diligence. Raising $1 million in $10,000 cheques guarantees virtually zero oversight. That, much more than anything legitimate, has been what ICOs have enabled.