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Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#71
post #43

How I learned: Early in my career, I was around DC doing mostly work in applied math and computing for US national security. No joke -- constantly the work was heavily probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. I had a good ugrad math major but no courses in any of those three subjects. So I was thrown into the deep end of the pool and was constantly struggling to understand. I did pick up a good overview and…

I think if you have such an exposure to so many stat and probability books, and yet cannot recommend one good one, then clearly you are the person fated by the universe to write that one book written correctly. :)

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#72
post #6

If you're working through Spivek and Apostol, get Feller v1 and v2. Same level of rigor and emphasis on intuition. (If you're having fun after that, pick up Gallager's book on stochastic processes. Similar approaches, intuition, and focus on discrete probability to skip the metric theory complications of continuous dists.) Another very good book is Bertsekas and Tsitsiklas, Introduction to Probability. This book will…

In my experience, those who grew up with Papoulis, 2nd edition loved it. I grew up with Papoulis, 3rd edition, and find the layout and typesetting to be among the worst of any book I've ever read, bad enough to significantly affect usability and ability to quickly find things.

Yeah, I personally don't love Papoulis. But it has been regarded as the standard stochastic processes text.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#73

For probability, you need measure theory first. That's also when discrete and continuous methods unify, so it's an amazing edifice. Statistics has four major branches: inference, exploratory data analysis, experimental design, and visualization. Your question is probably mostly asking about inference. I like the first few chapters of Kiefer's book to get the context of decision theory. Then you're going to have to wa…

No no on measure theory. See below on Feller, Bersekas, Gallager. I think it's best to learn discrete prob first and skip the difficult math until you decide to become a mathematician or really need it for e.g. finance work.

One other objection: yes, those are fields in statistics. But statistics as a field is MUCH broader than departments called statistics. A ton of stats is done in engineering, psychology, and economics (econometrics). In fact I'd say the major research in stats for the past few decades has been done outside of "statistics" as a field. But yes, the books by Tukey, Tufte, and Casella are good.

If the OP is asking about statistics and probability needed for machine learning, he wants to focus on engineering statistics, like: estimation, stochastic processes, and filtering and mathematical statistics. The Wald rec is good and complements Feller.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#74
post #43

How I learned: Early in my career, I was around DC doing mostly work in applied math and computing for US national security. No joke -- constantly the work was heavily probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. I had a good ugrad math major but no courses in any of those three subjects. So I was thrown into the deep end of the pool and was constantly struggling to understand. I did pick up a good overview and…

Can you recommend what is the best sequence of books in your opinion to get to rigorous probability theory? E.g.:

- Principles of Mathematical Analysis, Rudin

- Finite-dimensional vector spaces, Halmos

- Real Analysis, Royden

- Mathematical Foundations of the Calculus of Probability, Neveu

Would that be something like this? Any alternatives?

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#75
post #71
post #43

How I learned: Early in my career, I was around DC doing mostly work in applied math and computing for US national security. No joke -- constantly the work was heavily probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. I had a good ugrad math major but no courses in any of those three subjects. So I was thrown into the deep end of the pool and was constantly struggling to understand. I did pick up a good overview and…

I think if you have such an exposure to so many stat and probability books, and yet cannot recommend one good one, then clearly you are the person fated by the universe to write that one book written correctly. :)

Back in grad school, my fellow students and I were amazed at how polished were the books of Rudin, Neveu, Royden, Luenberger, Dynkin, etc. but how comparatively ..., say not good, were the books in statistics. There are some hints that there are more good statistics books now.

One of my fellow students was very capable, and I was hoping would write a good book; I doubt if he ever got around to it.

I'm glad the statistics community has at least one foot in important applications, but both feet? Way back there was Cramer. At the Brown University of Applied Math long was U. Grenander -- maybe he could have written a Cramer Volume II.

I'd like to see (A) much more polish on the foundations and then (B) selected with good insight and expertise some of the keys to some of the more important applications.

Some of the application areas where I suspect, with varying degrees of strength, there is some good work include (i) particle physics such as at the LHC, (ii) a huge range of bio-medical research, (iii) high end military radar, sonar, and tracking more generally.

When I was in grad school, some of the gossip was that statistics of sample paths of stochastic processes was a wide open field -- I suspect it still is.

Apparently in the US, for well done theory, at least in attitudes, statistics is a poor cousin of probability theory, that is a poor cousin of pure math, and stochastic processes is just out of the picture.

I haven't tried to be a statistician, but I've done some projects and gotten some results. But for each of the results, clearly there were plenty of loose ends and more to do but without any very clear theory, examples, experience, or methods to tie off the loose ends.

Maybe here's one -- maybe since I'm not putting a lot into this just now: Above I gave my little derivation that with data X, the best estimate of Y is E[Y|X] with the idea that this partly justifies cross tabulation as the discrete version. Okay, but X might be a sample path of a history of a stochastic process with lots of dimensions with goofy data types. So, maybe to cut down some on the exponential explosion of the data required for cross tabulation on several variables, exponential in the number of variables, pick and choose the variables. Okay, but first cut we have not even zip, zilch, or zero on how to do that.

Once I published a paper on multi-dimensional, distribution-free statistical hypothesis tests, intended for zero-day computer security. But, again, the number of variables with data is huge; we encounter another exponential explosion and would like some help on which variables to choose.

Very broadly, from 200,000 feet up, we get to choose the variables to use and then want to know something about the accuracy of our results -- too often we are to use the TIFO (try it and find out) method, some form of Monte Carlo, resampling techniques (B. Efron, P. Diaconis) deleting some variables or observations and trying again, etc.

My guess is that finding a welcoming department in a research university and/or an interested problem sponsor in a funding agency would be too tough.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#76
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Came here to post this and “Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View“ by Cosmos Shalizi

I just wish this would come out in paper book. It’s excellent but I have difficulty reading math books online.

You can print ebooks.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#77
post #24

Anyone has anything to say about The Lady Tasting Tea[0]? I'd like to hear/read your thoughts about this book. (I came across it on the comment section of John D Cook's blog post[1] years ago but haven't had a chance to read it yet). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lady_Tasting_Tea [1] https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2013/01/12/elementary-statist...

I enjoyed it. I read it when I knew almost nothing about statistics, and found that it motivated me to learn more. And it's frankly an interesting / entertaining read in its own right. It's not a textbook, so don't expect to come away knowing a lot of stats after reading it (unless you already do!), but I'd say it's worth reading.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#78

I personally like Kruschke's Bayesian Data Analysis very much. It does a wonderful job in introducing readers to Bayesian statistics -- a good first text book for Bayesian statistics. For a more classic approach to statistics, I also liked Builder's Analysis of categorical data. It's focused on categorical data but does a good job in explaining what's going on. A good introductory book. Both books are well written an…

Another nice intro to Bayesian statistics is McElreath’s Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan. There are also recordings of the lectures based on the book. http://xcelab.net/rm/statistical-rethinking/

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#79
post #73

For probability, you need measure theory first. That's also when discrete and continuous methods unify, so it's an amazing edifice. Statistics has four major branches: inference, exploratory data analysis, experimental design, and visualization. Your question is probably mostly asking about inference. I like the first few chapters of Kiefer's book to get the context of decision theory. Then you're going to have to wa…

No no on measure theory. See below on Feller, Bersekas, Gallager. I think it's best to learn discrete prob first and skip the difficult math until you decide to become a mathematician or really need it for e.g. finance work. One other objection: yes, those are fields in statistics. But statistics as a field is MUCH broader than departments called statistics. A ton of stats is done in engineering, psychology, and econ…

The OP is reading Spivak and Dedekind and makes no mention of machine learning. He's interested in the deep mathematics.

Re: Ask HN: What are your favorite statistics and probability textbooks?

#80
I'm in the same boat as you. I started studying advanced machine learning/AI concepts, and understand the intuition just fine, but I feel like i'm grasping around in the dark without a good foundation in statistics. Currently reading this online book and watching lectures: https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/SticiGui/Text/toc.htm. The material is stated quite simply without advanced math, but it actually helps a lot to understand concepts better.
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