Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock • Hacker News Board

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#191

Post by onemoresoop » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:43 PM UTC

pintxo wrote: post #180

Brakenshire wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The technology actually seems perfect for some kind of hybrid between road and rail, if we could build a city from scratch you could make something better than either, with train-like capacity alongside road-like routing. Although I suppose the difficulty limits the market enough to make investment in such a scheme uncompetitive. Perhaps this is what Musk is hoping to get around that with his tunneling idea.

I'd vote for the other way around. Combine the flexibility of the car with the freedom of riding a train. Let people drive manually to predetermined locations, let's name them a "station". Where the "AI" takes over and lines up cars on predetermined routes, let's name them "tracks". The AI will control the car on the "track" up until the nearest "station" to the destination. From there the driver will manually contin…

That is a practical approach until the AI gets better to get you from point A to point B.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#192

Post by Piskvorrr » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:43 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #65

microcolonel wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, good luck marketing a product which only works when everyone is lawful and considerate, and otherwise has a considerable chance of killing occupants or pedestrians.

Cars that you can buy today are such a product. As are kitchen knives.

Quite the opposite. Non-autonomous cars are a product that works despite virtually nobody keeping the rules completely, and most drivers being inconsiderate.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#193

Post by randcraw » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:43 PM UTC

dawhizkid wrote: post #55

As someone who worked at a ridesharing co, I'm also really curious about the ops side of things, like how will passengers behave when there's no driver in the car? Will people try to have sex, do drugs, make a mess? What happens when someone vomits in the car or is very drunk (actually a very common problem in ridesharing)?

All commercial AV services will put cameras inside the car to ensure that you don't misbehave. You'll have no more right to privacy in an AV than you do today in taxis when the cabbie looks at you in the rear view mirror. Less, probably.

They'll successfully promote the practice as offering greater security and warning you when you leave something behind.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#194

Post by gaius » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:47 PM UTC

vamin wrote: post #155

gaius wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have any of the major vendors documented this? Otherwise, citation needed.

"By working with the police department in Chandler, AZ, for example, Waymo has been able to train its cars to yield, pull over, or stop when it hears or sees sirens." [1] [1] https://www.recode.net/2017/10/15/16472896/alphabet-waymo-se...

Thanks!

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#195

Post by cozzyd » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

the-dude wrote: post #133

ltdanimal wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have that flipped. 20% of code covers 80%. As you try to get to 100% coverage of all possible scenarios the complexity gets in some cases exponentially harder as all the low hanging fruit is picked

So he is exactly right : 80% of the code handles edges cases. You are the one who is flipped.

20% of code covers 80%. 80% of code covers 19%.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#196

Post by ScottBurson » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 9:56 PM UTC

zawerf wrote: post #140

Animats wrote: post #124

Another bad article. As I keep pointing out, the way you start to do automatic driving is by first profiling the terrain to see where you can go. If it's not flat road, you don't go there. Doesn't matter why it's not flat. Then try to classify other road objects and predict their behavior. This only matters for moving objects. Waymo gets this, as we know from Urmson's talk at SXSW a few years back. Most of the DARPA…

> The most common problem, especially with Waymo, is being rear-ended while cautiously entering an intersection with limited visibility. Their system will start forward to get a better view, then detect cross traffic and stop This actually highlights a really hard problem that (perfect) self driving will need to solve: theory of mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind Not only does the AI need to empathize…

The only time I've ever been rear-ended was that way — pulling out of a parking lot where the street was at a slightly higher level, so I couldn't see around the parked cars on either side of the exit. I started to pull out rather quickly, but then was forced to hit the brakes, and the person behind me — well, I don't know where they were looking.

I guess that's not quite the same scenario, though, since the person behind me couldn't see the cross traffic either; they were just cueing off my own behavior to conclude that it must be clear.

Anyway, you're right: good driving isn't just predicting what other people are going to do; it's also making sure your own behavior gives them the correct idea about your intentions.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#197

Post by tempz » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 10:00 PM UTC

What is the most optimistic benefit of a driverless car?

If we put aside creation of unemployment, putting limits on what human drivers will be able to do, and similar dystopian outlooks, what are the benefits for the masses?

People who cannot drive will be able to use cars as people who can. Is this good? Are interesting places on the planet going to have the same fate as Internet did, when it transformed from elite audiences in 90s to tragedy of commons today?

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#198

Post by s2g » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 10:04 PM UTC

> argues the problem is less about building a perfect driving system than training bystanders to anticipate self-driving behavior

Can we stop listening to him now?

I'm joking, he's an expert of course, but seriously that's a pretty dumb view. It's exactly the sort of thing I expect from a SV "disruptor" type.

> “Rather than building AI to solve the pogo stick problem, we should partner with the government to ask people to be lawful and considerate,” he said. “Safety isn’t just about the quality of the AI technology.”

Just crazy.

These people just really do not seem to care if they kill people. They are engaging in foolish behavior rushing ahead with a technology that's not ready and thinking they can just paper over the gaps with laws and patches.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#199

Post by georgeecollins » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 10:05 PM UTC

totaldick wrote: post #146

georgeecollins wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you are trolling, but in case someone misses your user name: To say that the director of the MIT Artificial Intelligence lab for ten years and the founder of the a successful AI workstation company and the most successful robotics company in the world "has a history of skepticism about AI" is idiotic.

not trolling. I don't think you know Brooks well enough, i've been following him since the 90s. Rodney Brooks is famous for his subsumption architecture and disregard of statistical methods. Because of the failures of Marvin Minsky GOFAI, the previous director of MIT AI, he went in the opposite direction completely and became highly skeptical of AI while serving as MIT AI head. This was the AI winter days of the 90s.

Why create a name "totaldick" to make a single post if not to troll? My response would be: You don't head the most prestigious AI lab in world with pure skepticism.

I think you have elaborated on your true objection, his past skepticism about statistical methods. I don't think that equates to a blanket skepticism. I also refer you to the talk in my original post. He points out that there are breakthroughs and pitfalls that are unanticipated. He outlines specific pitfalls to autonomous driving that he feels no one has adequately addressed.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#200

Post by georgeecollins » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 10:12 PM UTC

the-pigeon wrote: post #122

georgeecollins wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you are trolling, but in case someone misses your user name: To say that the director of the MIT Artificial Intelligence lab for ten years and the founder of the a successful AI workstation company and the most successful robotics company in the world "has a history of skepticism about AI" is idiotic.

Why? There's certainly people who work with particular tech that are pessimistic or optimistic about it.

True. But if you listen to his interview it is clear that he is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. He recognizes that unanticipated breakthroughs are likely. His point is that there are too many unsolved problems for a quick development of useful driverless cars. He goes through the issues in some detail, but to offer one: real world drivers need to break the law all the time in order to not get stuck in traffic. How do you decide when it is OK to break the law? Who will accept the liability associated with a car that sometimes breaks the law. Etc.