Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another attack surface for self-driving cars
Sure, if you're willing to risk going to jail for impersonating a law enforcement officer.
People are. See South Africa, Brazil, etc.
Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
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Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another attack surface for self-driving cars
Sure, if you're willing to risk going to jail for impersonating a law enforcement officer.
Fair enough. I'm sure some would be willing to do that, but likely not many. I do think it is going to be very interesting to work out some of the scenarios if we do get to Johnny Cab style self driving cars.
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#63> “Rather than building AI to solve the pogo stick problem, we should partner with the government to ask people to be lawful and considerate,” he said. “Safety isn’t just about the quality of the AI technology.” Wow. What a goal post move. I don't think this is how successful technology spreads. Governments usually accomodate tech because it proves itself in the market, not vice versa.
Also, good luck marketing a product which only works when everyone is lawful and considerate, and otherwise has a considerable chance of killing occupants or pedestrians.
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#64[deleted]
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#65> “Rather than building AI to solve the pogo stick problem, we should partner with the government to ask people to be lawful and considerate,” he said. “Safety isn’t just about the quality of the AI technology.” Wow. What a goal post move. I don't think this is how successful technology spreads. Governments usually accomodate tech because it proves itself in the market, not vice versa.
Also, good luck marketing a product which only works when everyone is lawful and considerate, and otherwise has a considerable chance of killing occupants or pedestrians.
Cars that you can buy today are such a product. As are kitchen knives.
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#66This has been hanging out there for a while it's just that it never got much mainstream press. I wonder what it is specifically about the concept of "AI" that makes it so prone to the magical thinking that drives these boom-bust cycles. "I tell adult audiences not to expect it in their lifetimes. And I say the same thing to students" "Merely dealing with lighting conditions, weather conditions, and traffic conditions…
'It may be a hundred years before a computer beats humans at Go — maybe even longer,'' Piet Hut, an astrophysicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in New Jersey, told the NYT in 1997. ''If a reasonably intelligent person learned to play Go, in a few months he could beat all existing computer programs. You don't have to be a Kasparov.''
"With a further small percentage increase in cost we could reach the level of the baby Newton and better. We could then educate it and teach it its own construction and ask it to design a far more economical and larger machine. At this stage there would unquestionably be an explosive development in science, and it would be possible to let the machines tackle all the most difficult problems of science… For what it is worth, my guess of when all this will come to pass is 1978, and the cost of $10(8.7 ± 1.0)."
- Irving Good
"Within a generation, I am convinced, few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine’s realm - the problem of creating ‘artificial intelligence’ will be substantially solved"
- Marvin Minsky, 1967
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#67Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#68Waymo seems to be the only question mark in my mind making me doubt my bet that we're a decade or more away from usable self-driving cars. If Waymo has truly solved the problem while everybody else is just trying to catch up and/or bluffing, I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. Edited to add: The reason is that they've apparently ordered 10's of thousands of these cars. Can they really use that many only in good-wea…
I tend to agree. Waymo ordered 62,000 Chrysler Pacificas with delivery slated for late 2018. Base retail on the hybrid model is $40,000USD. Even if they got an unbelievably generous 50% discount, that means they're $1.24B USD serious, excluding the cost of the additional autonomous driving equipment. So this will either be one of the biggest debacles in Google/Alphabet's history, or they really are ready to go.
Waymo might also tell a different story: They've realized that a fundamental breakthrough in self-driving cars is unlikely to happen in the next decade and therefore there's no point in waiting any longer to perfect the technology - and instead rely on remote controlling of the cars for difficult situations. They can still gradually improve the self-driving systems but from a business perspective it might make sense to capture as much market share as possible right now.
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't have to solve the entirety of the problem for a solution to be useful. The autonomous cars only drive when it's 80 degrees out, sunny and on predetermined paths? Still welcomed.
Why not just lay out a network of rail lines then?
Have you recently checked the cost of laying out rail lines in cities?
Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock
#70I work on self-driving cars. Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. The vehicle is basically blind beyond the range of the sensors or if you miss a detection. Collaboration on these issues will lead to faster progress instead of competing.
Is there even a common set of reference tests ?