Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock • Hacker News Board

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#21

Post by TaylorAlexander » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:04 PM UTC

ianamartin wrote: post #17

jtbayly wrote: post #2

Waymo seems to be the only question mark in my mind making me doubt my bet that we're a decade or more away from usable self-driving cars. If Waymo has truly solved the problem while everybody else is just trying to catch up and/or bluffing, I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. Edited to add: The reason is that they've apparently ordered 10's of thousands of these cars. Can they really use that many only in good-wea…

I don't really see Waymo as being far ahead at this point. Uber pretty clearly stole Waymo's work. So unless Waymo had a major breakthrough since then that wasn't related to the basically everything Uber got then everyone is pretty much on the same page: promising it's almost here but in reality still about 10 years out or more.

Uber stole a small portion of Waymos work several years ago. They supposedly stole some lidar designs. There’s also code and personnel that Uber doesn’t have. In my mind, Waymo is miles ahead of Uber.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#22

Post by dsnuh » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:05 PM UTC

This is tangentially related, and something I have wondered, so I will ask it here.

Does anyone know how self driving cars will react to attempts by law enforcement officers to pull over the vehicle?

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#23

Post by TaylorAlexander » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:06 PM UTC

chronic821 wrote: post #18

samirparikh wrote: post #14

I work on self-driving cars. Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. The vehicle is basically blind beyond the range of the sensors or if you miss a detection. Collaboration on these issues will lead to faster progress instead of competing.

> Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. I also work on self-driving cars. Why would I share technological innovations with another company?

So people don’t die.

This is an example where companies could put people over profits and share what they’ve learned to keep things safe. I don’t see a lot of research papers (I see none) coming out of Waymo, Tesla, Uber, or Cruise.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#24

Post by intopieces » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:07 PM UTC

The story of computation in general — “The Rise of the Machines” — has been more about humans becoming more like machines than the other way around. The question is not “will computers ever be able to drive as well as a human?”. It’s “Will humans remake their driving systems to fit a sufficiently intelligent computer-driven model?” I believe the answer, as the US ages and falls below replacement rate, is yes. We are already fully invested in the age of benevolent machines, and there is no turning back.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#25

Post by cookingrobot » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:07 PM UTC

brookhaven_dude wrote: post #16

aantix wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to solve the entirety of the problem for a solution to be useful. The autonomous cars only drive when it's 80 degrees out, sunny and on predetermined paths? Still welcomed.

Why not just lay out a network of rail lines then?

Technology solutions seem to be easier than political ones.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#26

Post by atwebb » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:07 PM UTC

chronic821 wrote: post #18

samirparikh wrote: post #14

I work on self-driving cars. Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. The vehicle is basically blind beyond the range of the sensors or if you miss a detection. Collaboration on these issues will lead to faster progress instead of competing.

> Imho, companies need to collaborate on certain aspects like perception instead of competing. I also work on self-driving cars. Why would I share technological innovations with another company?

It isn't unheard of in this space for safety considerations:

https://priceonomics.com/volvo-gave-away-the-most-important-...

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#27

Post by vamin » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:07 PM UTC

dsnuh wrote: post #22

This is tangentially related, and something I have wondered, so I will ask it here. Does anyone know how self driving cars will react to attempts by law enforcement officers to pull over the vehicle?

They will pull over.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#28

Post by Judgmentality » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:09 PM UTC

TaylorAlexander wrote: post #21

ianamartin wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see Waymo as being far ahead at this point. Uber pretty clearly stole Waymo's work. So unless Waymo had a major breakthrough since then that wasn't related to the basically everything Uber got then everyone is pretty much on the same page: promising it's almost here but in reality still about 10 years out or more.

Uber stole a small portion of Waymos work several years ago. They supposedly stole some lidar designs. There’s also code and personnel that Uber doesn’t have. In my mind, Waymo is miles ahead of Uber.

> In my mind, Waymo is miles ahead of Uber.

I'd say many millions of miles, actually :)

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/waymo-7-million-test-mile...

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#29

Post by rbranson » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:11 PM UTC

Fricken wrote: post #19

rbranson wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tend to agree. Waymo ordered 62,000 Chrysler Pacificas with delivery slated for late 2018. Base retail on the hybrid model is $40,000USD. Even if they got an unbelievably generous 50% discount, that means they're $1.24B USD serious, excluding the cost of the additional autonomous driving equipment. So this will either be one of the biggest debacles in Google/Alphabet's history, or they really are ready to go.

Waymo has also ordered 20k Jaguar I-paces. Rumour is they have invested about 11 billion in R&d so far, and I'm crudely estimating the cost of their 80k upcoming robotaxis to be around 12 billion. Alphabet is committed. Waymo estimates about 50 trips per day will be served per vehicle. At that rate, 80k robotaxis is enough to displace most of the taxi/rideshare services in the southwestern United States, though I'm n…

In this scenario there's no moat for Lyft/Uber either. If Waymo can meet demand, they'll be able to undercut ride sharing prices so deeply that most consumers will switch overnight. Banks will be falling over themselves to provide the massive credit they'll need to bankroll the expansion.

Re: Self-driving cars are headed toward an AI roadblock

#30

Post by jfoutz » Thu, Jul 05, 2018, 5:11 PM UTC

mathiasben wrote: post #10

As long as software is composed of primitive language derived statements and "functional" logic (IF, WHEN, WHILE, DO, GOTO, etc...) AI will remain a fantasy.

This is hard to parse. All software that can be represented as if and goto (and some sort of assignment i suppose)?

when, while and do are just if and goto.

alpha go is all just if and goto. I'm not sure what you're looking for or alluding to.

Is there some other operation that isn't just if and goto? because i think any function you come up with, i can just make a big table of inputs that result in specific outputs.

Heck, decrement and jump if zero is enough. I'm not convinced at all that specific operations are limiting us somehow. Could you elaborate?