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In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

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Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#11

>>>In early June, news broke that Ant Financial, an electronic payments service company affiliated with Alibaba, had raised a staggering $14 billion in what’s technically a Series C round. To date, it’s the largest venture funding round in history. Led by Temasek Holdings and GIC (a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund), the round reportedly values Ant Financial at $150 billion. For perspective, that’s roughly twice Ube…

One of the reasons US-based startups grow so quickly is that the ones with traction here tap into a (relatively) homogeneous 300+ million market. A Chinese company with similar market share potential has tapped into about 4X that market. Growth rate is much faster in such a market, as opposed to global growth that has to deal with diverse sources of friction (e.g. Uber's challenges in London, Paris, etc. vs in the US).

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#12
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is going cashless -mobile payments are increasingly the norm. There are two main ways to pay with your phone wechat pay and Alipay(run by ant financial). It will potentially handle a huge percentage of ALL payments in a country as big as china.Maybe 150bn isn't such a crazy valuation

How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China? When I was there back in 2011-2012 everything was exclusively cash-only. I'd be interested to learn the rate of change in recent years.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-mobile-payment-boom-chan...

What surprised me was the proliferation of Alipay in premium outlets near touristy areas in SF.

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#13
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is going cashless -mobile payments are increasingly the norm. There are two main ways to pay with your phone wechat pay and Alipay(run by ant financial). It will potentially handle a huge percentage of ALL payments in a country as big as china.Maybe 150bn isn't such a crazy valuation

How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China? When I was there back in 2011-2012 everything was exclusively cash-only. I'd be interested to learn the rate of change in recent years.

Extremely fast. I agree with ~2011 being cash only, but the last time we were back (last year?), there was tons of wechat pay usage in restaurants, convenience stores, etc.

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#14
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is going cashless -mobile payments are increasingly the norm. There are two main ways to pay with your phone wechat pay and Alipay(run by ant financial). It will potentially handle a huge percentage of ALL payments in a country as big as china.Maybe 150bn isn't such a crazy valuation

How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China? When I was there back in 2011-2012 everything was exclusively cash-only. I'd be interested to learn the rate of change in recent years.

>How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China?

Basically overnight. Reason? 1. Alibaba and Tencent basically paying cash for people using their system; 2. POS terminal charges for them are near nil in comparison to rapacious rents Visa/MC processing banks were demanding just a year ago.

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#15
I was walking around my home town recently. It's more than doubled since I left in 2002. Most of the new housing was built as new, dense (10-20 stories) suburbs.

Th urban architecture is not bad. Decent green spaces, so that buildings open into "garden paths" rather than streets. You can get between places using green pedestrian walkways. Conveniently located schools & creches. Most of the parking is underground.

The "economic architecture" OTOH, is striking. There are 2 small malls, walking distance from eachother, where all the cafes, resteraunts and shops are. There are two big commercial/adminstrative buildings where the dentist, post offices and stuff is. There is no high street, no corner stores, or any place that a sidewalk pizza shop could exist. ..no place where an independent retail or service business could exist, not even a news stand.

It occurred to me that not only is this related to "concentration of wealth" it is that concentration of wealth. Those Malls and commercial real estate can be owned by €bn funds. Street level real estate doesn't lend well to that.

Now... A lot of this has to do with the structure of the financial system, how things are capitalized. A developer can approach a large real estate fund, to sell a mall "off the plan." They can then go and presell leases, to their client base.. chain stores and restaurants.

There is no equivalent financial sector that could fund real estate suitable for sole traders. So, sole traders will decline. There is obviously a chicken-egg dynamic between the underlying economics (eg revenue per square meter, and hence rent) and the existence of a friendly capital market. But, I think causation runs the other way as well.

In this case, it just seems very planned. The architecture and planning of a city assumes a certain economy, the urban architecture reflects that, and the underlying capital system reflects that. The three lock eachother into place. If there had been a vibrant market for financing small retailers, but not malls, then the whole city would have probably been built differently.

Anyway China is unidealogical about such things, atm. They don't mind engineering a cityscape for a certain economy, engineering financial markets for a certain cityscape or cityscape or if the proverbial cat is black or white.

My long winded point is that maybe it's time to "pick winners" in financial markets, subsidizing or penalising certain types of capital markets over others. Ive always been dubious about market liberalism when it comes to banks.

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#16
Many thanks to the lopsided high skilled immigration rules, combined with China focused VCs, a lot of reverse brain drain to China has lead to this.

Imagine if every Masters or a PhD grad was given a green card. US would still have been a leader in tech (at least wrt VC spending metric)

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#17
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would a company with such massive revenue need to bring in so much external capital? Wouldn't the current stakeholders be better off keeping more of the pie?

Keep in mind $9 billion in sales is not quite massive revenue in the pool that Ant is now swimming. Their financial footing is not nearly so large as their scale of processing, they've only begun generating meaningful profit in the last year or two. Google is at $110 billion in sales, JP Morgan is at $94 billion, those are massive. The dilution of current stakeholders is intentional. I believe it was required by Chin…

>JP Morgan is at $94 billion

By the way, their C-Suite has just been to China to attend a humiliating "Handshaking Ceremony" with some "serious official"

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#18
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is going cashless -mobile payments are increasingly the norm. There are two main ways to pay with your phone wechat pay and Alipay(run by ant financial). It will potentially handle a huge percentage of ALL payments in a country as big as china.Maybe 150bn isn't such a crazy valuation

How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China? When I was there back in 2011-2012 everything was exclusively cash-only. I'd be interested to learn the rate of change in recent years.

I was in China around then too, and I have given up using that as a reference frame for China today.

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#19
post #11

>>>In early June, news broke that Ant Financial, an electronic payments service company affiliated with Alibaba, had raised a staggering $14 billion in what’s technically a Series C round. To date, it’s the largest venture funding round in history. Led by Temasek Holdings and GIC (a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund), the round reportedly values Ant Financial at $150 billion. For perspective, that’s roughly twice Ube…

One of the reasons US-based startups grow so quickly is that the ones with traction here tap into a (relatively) homogeneous 300+ million market. A Chinese company with similar market share potential has tapped into about 4X that market. Growth rate is much faster in such a market, as opposed to global growth that has to deal with diverse sources of friction (e.g. Uber's challenges in London, Paris, etc. vs in the US…

China is 4x larger users-wise, but what about revenue/gdp?

Re: In Q2 2018, Global VC Scales Tipped In Favor Of Chinese Startups Over American

#20
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is going cashless -mobile payments are increasingly the norm. There are two main ways to pay with your phone wechat pay and Alipay(run by ant financial). It will potentially handle a huge percentage of ALL payments in a country as big as china.Maybe 150bn isn't such a crazy valuation

How rapidly are cashless transactions spreading in China? When I was there back in 2011-2012 everything was exclusively cash-only. I'd be interested to learn the rate of change in recent years.

Faster than square, stripe, and venmo did in the US. You can very nearly expect to be completely cashless, including Western credit/debot cards. You'll even see panhandlers with a qr code in front of them.
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