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Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

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Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shareholders aren't debtors. It's still arbitrary, a goal they set for themselves.

SEC likely wouldn't agree, and haven't agreed historically.

What are you claiming the SEC would disagree with? The claim is that Tesla set a goal of 5000 vehicles per week.

There are two things you could disagree with but you don't specify which. You can disagree that Tesla set this goal for itself, or you can disagree that the number 5000 is arbitrary.

To disagree with the first part, you'd need to show that the 5000 figure came from an external party, do you have such a source for this?

To disagree with the second part, you'd need to show that there is something significant about the number 5000. Is your claim that there is some significance to the number 5000?

If you can't substantiate the claim that some external party gave Tesla the goal to make 5000 vehicles per week, and you can't substantiate the claim that the number 5000 has some fundamental significance when it comes to car manufacturing, then you have no grounds to refute the statement that Tesla set this arbitrary goal of 5000 for itself.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#272
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You gotta hand it to Elon for stirring the appetite for EVs though. What makes you think he can't do similar things in other markets?

I am not convinced he really changed the market's desire for EVs. He made a halo car, and now he is selling the baby version for Average Joe. I think the success of the Model 3 has a lot more to do with the brand than it does with it being an EV.

It's simply ignoring reality to not acknowledge Tesla's center role in popularizing EVs. It's not even a question.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Your world view is too narrow. That 5000 figure is important, but it's not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things. There is a 4th or 5th scenario, where 4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around. It's easy to…

> 4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around.

> It's easy to assume that because a company is bigger, and have more resources and manufacturing experience, that they can move fast in developing tech. It's easy to judge a book by it's cover. Incumbents move slow ALWAYS. If moving fast was so easy, they would of done it before Tesla was born.

This isn't silicon valley. There is years of design and manufacturing experience that Tesla simply does not have. This isn't a software project where someone in a garage can make it and scale it. Tesla can build luxury cars because budget constraints are significantly less. Now they're struggling with the constraints like everyone else.

Other car makers are just as competitive now. The reality is the Chevy Bolt is a great start and will only be improved upon. Elon Musk has no monopoly on technology. There are competitors in almost every sector. Many great engineers are elsewhere.

And the reality is - most people don't care about EV right now. Sedans are struggling mightily. Americans are buying SUVs and crossovers right now. General car manufacturers are able to easily switch production when the market shifts. Tesla can't even make a budget friendly car. Their model 3 will be out of most of the market's price range. Meanwhile GM can still make a Sonic and Cruze or a pickup truck.

> Right now, solar panels are considered a "toy". It's not even on any of the car makers' radar. It's like how Tesla's first Roadster cars were not on any of the car maker's radars 5 years ago. It's a "toy" until one day, it becomes a reality, and you tout your ability to "catch up" with your "vast experience" 5 years from now, folks like you will write another article, about how GM will be able to produce solar panels to "catch up to Tesla in just one or 2 years"

Gee why didn't GM buy FirstEnergy or Duke Energy! They're so behind in the energy industry...This argument isn't even worth debating. GM is not a power company. They do not want to be.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#274
post #150

I can’t give up my Model 3. Driving any Tesla car is a dopamine hit. You really have to try and drive them to experience it and you’ll be hooked. Many people don’t realize what a refreshing and tremendous difference a smooth and powerful torque curve gives. Seriously forget all the noise about Elon Musk. Try and drive an electric car, which are by far still smoother than gear-shifting gas powered cars, and then try a…

Tesla is not the only brand that creates electric cars. This is all about Elon making clames he could not make true. The danger for Tesla is that people don't want to wait for broken promises anymore and will choose another brand. Edit: for example the Jaguar I-PACE might be very competitive.

I have yet to hear anyone say they're impressed with the I-Pace

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#275
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's best case scenario is much more than an automaker. They also have hopes of being an energy company, a battery company, a transportation company, and a logistics company. There is still a lot of debate whether any of those will actually become profitable (and I think 2020 is a very aggressive timeline for any of this to happen), but there are huge potential revenue streams for Tesla that simply don't exist for…

Toyota or Ford or any other car company can enter any of those fields, either directly or through investment. That they choose not to probably indicates that the risk/reward doesn't make sense for them, and they probably aren't worth that much if Tesla manages to pivot. They chose not to play in EVs until recently, for example, because the market appetite wasn't there

I am surprised to see this type of argument on HN of all places. One of the primary goals of any start up is to either create a new market or to serve a market that an incumbent is failing to properly serve. You can't just assume that because a company like Toyota hasn't done any of these things yet that there is no potential to gain from them. There are countless reasons why traditional powers fail to innovate and are eventually challenged by more forward thinking companies. I have no idea if Tesla will be that company long term. But the potential is there and that potential is what is fueling the hype.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#276
post #99

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

I actually thought he was underpromising, and that Tesla would surprise the world by blowing past 5K weeks early. That they pulled out all the stops in the final weeks and still missed the deadline feels like a bad sign.

It's not the one time performance that matters, it's the rate of flow as time continues.

Also recall that band //width// can be increased for a cost while latency has hard upper bounds.

For anyone complaining about profit margins, think per unit profits rather than hitting some round base10 number.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#277

> with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk No, they missed the deadline, twice now. Lot of Muskites in these comments, remember, Tesla failed to meet the same deadline in January and pushed it to June. (EDIT: I've been told they missed this 3 times now, the 5K/wk figure was originally Dec '17, then Jan '18 then Jun '18).…

If they almost got to that rate of 5k it's just as good. There's nothing magical about that number. Musk sets high goals and usually gets close, but it takes longer than he said it would. Reusable rockets, impossible, took years - but now we have them.

I can't understand the people that think he's a charlatan. They have sold approaching 200k electric vehicles. They are great cars, I have one. But separate from that, they always had a plan to increase production and sell more of cheaper cars, ramping up from first selling expensive ones. The latest ones are going to need a lot more volume before they can make them cheap enough to sell at 35k, such as higher battery production. They will lose money until they make them at high volume. It's not crazy to say they'll have a lot more money coming in as they raise production, that's like any business. The open question is will they actually make a profit. We can't know what the numbers are until they come out. Based on history, I think they'll get close to profitable but won't quite make it, but they'll clearly be headed in that direction as the early hurdles of increasing production are met. Again - it won't matter exactly when they are profitable if they are close. Just like the 5k/week number.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#278
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You gotta hand it to Elon for stirring the appetite for EVs though. What makes you think he can't do similar things in other markets?

I am not convinced he really changed the market's desire for EVs. He made a halo car, and now he is selling the baby version for Average Joe. I think the success of the Model 3 has a lot more to do with the brand than it does with it being an EV.

Tesla has vastly changed public perception of EVs, changing demand & enabling current production ramp up of cheaper models.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine that today is July 1, 2020. Looking back I see three scenarios. 1) It's clear now that the company is a sham and Musk is a snake-oil salesman. It's all smoke, mirrors, bubblegum and baling wire. After hitting 5000 cars per week one time, they never reached that level again. The company had to do a punishingly dilutive capital raise just to get 6 months more runway, and the company's market cap is now $6 billi…

Your world view is too narrow. That 5000 figure is important, but it's not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things. There is a 4th or 5th scenario, where 4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around. It's easy to…

Amazon should buy Tesla. That would blow minds.

Re: Tesla meets self-imposed deadline for Model 3, rolls out 5000 cars in a week

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your world view is too narrow. That 5000 figure is important, but it's not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things. There is a 4th or 5th scenario, where 4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around. It's easy to…

I don’t understand why solar panels would necessarily go with car manufacturers? They don’t seem intrinsically related at all.

The batteries are what connect them. No one else will be making batteries at that rate, at least for a pretty long time. Tesla has the cheaper batteries and related tech to use them in solar power along with cars.
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