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The rich world needs higher real wage growth

economist.com

151–160 of 265 posts

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#151
post #6

Or better yet, reduce prices all around. Think of all your expenses and look at ways to systematically reduce them for everyone. Start with food, get a meal down to less than a dollar. Rent is high because everyone wants to move to certain dense areas, while moving away from more spacious/rural areas. This is unsustainable. Offer incentives for people to move elsewhere, including jobs programs and subsidizing mass tr…

But why does everyone want to move to dense urban areas? You assume that there’s some small, easy-to-offset group of factors, like public transit or “jobs programs,” and that if the government just did something with these things, it would equilibrate population dynamics appropriately. I’m not convinced. I think people are more driven by status symbols and glamor. Living in a city is considered relatively more “high…

Google has a large office in Ann Arbor, so Grand Rapids was an odd choice here.

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#152
The proximate cause is the oil price. As the price of Brent crude oil, a benchmark, fell from over $110 a barrel in mid-2014 to under $30 a barrel by January 2016, inflation tumbled, even turning negative in Europe.

It makes sense that oil prices would affect the price of everything else, but I didn't realize it was so volatile. 75% down seems like a huge drop, and then it increased 150% shortly afterward. Is this normal? Was this due to the discovery of fracking?

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#153
post #142
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relevant: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/1991/10/-quot... "The magazine is written by young people pretending to be old people... If American readers got a look at the pimply complexions of their economic gurus, they would cancel their subscriptions in droves."

This article is nearly 30 years old.

But perhaps even more true today, as the profession of journalism has become even younger and lower paid than it was before.

Without the steady subscription revenue of the past, you can't afford to hire big name writers with decades of experience anymore.

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#154

The emphasis on oil may reflect a European perspective. Only 19% of US oil is imported now, and the US generates very little electricity from oil. The US is a natural gas exporter. If the US wants energy independence, it's within reach. At the other extreme, Japan imports essentially all its oil, as does the UK. Both import most of their natural gas.

US burns 20mbd and produces less than 10mbd. Are you sure imports are only 19%?

That's from [1], which seems bogus. I sent a query into EIA.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#155
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This article really demonstrates how meaningless most economics reporting is, it's nearly as bad as markets/finance reporting. The problem is not with the reporting, it’s with the field. Economics is pseudoscience. It has all the trappings but none of the explanatory or predictive abilities. So you get articles like these that use a lot of jargon pretending like they’re making a strong case, but there’s no strong con…

> Economics can’t be a science yet Macroeconomics, yes. Microeconomics is a proper science. It has theories which make predictions which can be demonstrated in experiments.

[deleted]

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economics can’t be a science yet Macroeconomics, yes. Microeconomics is a proper science. It has theories which make predictions which can be demonstrated in experiments.

I don't think that makes it a science. When Karl Popper criticised economics (and freudianism) for being a pseudo-science, there wasn't a real macro-micro divide. Adam Smith, Ricardo and the like were essentially micro-economists. You can experiment in some very small (raise the price of a product on a shelf) ways. The bulk of economics is about how these small components interact as a large dynamic. When it comes to…

> I don't think that makes it a science.

Hypothesis, experimentation, the ability to negate/falsify, some predictive ability ... Either these things are not true, or your bar for "being a science" is higher than most.

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#157

The emphasis on oil may reflect a European perspective. Only 19% of US oil is imported now, and the US generates very little electricity from oil. The US is a natural gas exporter. If the US wants energy independence, it's within reach. At the other extreme, Japan imports essentially all its oil, as does the UK. Both import most of their natural gas.

US burns 20mbd and produces less than 10mbd. Are you sure imports are only 19%?

Numbers seem to come from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbblpd_a_cur.... which includes natural gas, ethanol and exports.

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#158
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious to see how far she goes with her esposal of Chavista policies and if she does, what its impact will be on the community.

> her esposal of Chavista policies Source? (Genuinely curious.)

I exaggerate, but I think the intercept has a decent take on her https://theintercept.com/2018/06/30/theres-an-easy-answer-to...

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably cheaper and certainly more environmentally friendly to keep building upward in urban centers than to build mass transit to exurban areas. Urban areas already provide significant subsidies to exurban ones via taxes and cross-subsidies - see, e.g., [0] and [1]. The comparatively high cost of living in high-density areas is driven by a combination of those transfers and pricing distortions created by local…

It's certainly not cheaper, for developers, to build highrise aparments in the city than upscale tract homes on tiny lots in an exurb. And environmental impacts and the responsibility for transportation are both externalities easily pushed to someone else. This is what actually happens.

It costs a very small amount compared to the actual value that they create.

Adding more houses in a place nobody wants to live is worth very little.

Adding more apartments to a place EVERYONE wants to live is VERY valuable.

I want developers to be doing the thing that everyone wants.

Re: The rich world needs higher real wage growth

#160
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If everyone lived in New York or San Francisco, there wouldn’t be any need to construct a bridge in Ohio in exactly the same way there’s no need to build one over the Onyx River in Antarctica.

Doesn't work that way, since jobs are independent of labor pool location. A good example would be tourism, where companies draw people to places with no population. Also, companies that decide to build a factory in the middle of nowhere to take advantage of something else, like cheaper land or electricity. And suddenly you need to build a bridge in Ohio to get to that factory.

If those jobs are "needed" then wages will rise, and the market will solve the problem.

If wages don't rise for those jobs, then they weren't needed.

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