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Unexpected hanging paradox

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81–87 of 87 posts

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#81
post #63

My thought is that there is no paradox, "Friday" being the execution day can be a surprise. If the prisoner finds out that Friday is the execution day on Thursday because he is not executed on Thursday, the specific day is still a "surprise," just a day earlier than it happens.

The prisoner is specifically told that the surprise will be such that he doesn't know until the knock on the door on at noon that he will be executed that day.

He cannot be hanged on Friday without that being a lie.

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#82
post #50
post #48

> He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day. I have placed a ball under one of five cups. You can check only sequentially if the ball is under each cup. Do you know which cup the ball is under? If you start turning over the cups one by one, will you be surprised when you find it? You won’t be surprised after you’ve turned over all but one cup, if you still…

The judge makes a promise that he cannot keep, but precisely because of that, he keeps it. Thus the paradox.

[deleted]

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#83
Straightforward contradiction spoken by the judge, from which anything whatsoever follows.

The statement "you will be hanged on a weekday next week" which we can express as

   H(weekday)
means precisely this:

   H(F) or H(Th) or H(W) or H(Tu) or H(M)
The statement "you will not know until the knock on the door whether you are hanged on that day" means exactly this:

   ~H(F) and ~H(Th) and ~H(W) and ~H(Tu) and ~H(M)
Well, no, not quite! It only has that meaning conditionally. That is to say:

   H(weekday) -> ~H(F) and ~H(Th) and ~H(W) and ~H(Tu) and ~H(M)
By De Morgan's, this right side rearranges to:

   H(weekday) -> ~(H(F) or H(Th) or H(W) or H(Tu) or H(M))
and that is of course

   H(weekday) -> ~H(weekday)
This is equivalent to ~H(weekday), since P -> ~P is ~P v ~P, which is just ~P. So, what the judge said in total is equivalent to the conjunction of these two propositions:

   H(weekday) ^ (H(weekday) -> ~H(weekday))
Where the right side reduces as above, leaving:

   H(weekday) ^ ~H(weekday)
A direct contradiction: you will be hanged and you won't be hanged.

The prisoner choose to believe that he won't be hanged.

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#84
post #65

For everyone saying the prisoner can just expect to be hanged every day and thus never be surprised.... Why do you say that? What reason, on Monday, does he have to believe that he would be executed on Monday and not the other days? He can say the words, but I'm not convinced he would be convinced.

He has a completely valid argument—Friday can be excluded (that wouldn't be a surprise), Thursday can be excluded (since he already excluded Friday, it wouldn't be a surprise), and so on, until the last day left is Monday. So he can conclude the execution must be on that day. (In fact, he has a valid argument for anything he might want to believe since the original statement made by the judge is self-contradictory.)

This paradox generates so much banter, it's fun!

So now I'm thinking you're wrong because the logic that leads to excluding Tues-Fri can't also be used to exclude Mon. He can't expect execution on Monday and expect to be surprise executed on Monday.

When he inducts to Monday and then doesn't get executed Monday, he can't expect to use the same logic the induct Tuesday. Which means any day then becomes a surprise. He has a 1/3 chance (since we exlude Friday) of randomly choosing the right day, but no reason to not be surprised on any day except Friday.

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#85
post #79
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, you're right. However, the paradox arises no matter what the prisoner concludes. If he concludes that the hanging won't be a surprise, he will be surprised by the outcome (the knock on Wednesday).

Let me say it again in a different way. My resolution of the paradox is that the prisoner incorrectly negates "x will happen" as "x won't happen" instead of negating "x definitely will happen" as "x might not happen". Thus,the prisoner cannot conclude that the hanging won't be a surprise. The prisoner can only conclude that the hanging might not be a surprise.

It seems like you're right again, but I don't have time to think more about this at the moment, unfortunately.

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#86
post #63

My thought is that there is no paradox, "Friday" being the execution day can be a surprise. If the prisoner finds out that Friday is the execution day on Thursday because he is not executed on Thursday, the specific day is still a "surprise," just a day earlier than it happens.

The prisoner is specifically told that the surprise will be such that he doesn't know until the knock on the door on at noon that he will be executed that day. He cannot be hanged on Friday without that being a lie.

That makes sense.

Maybe an alternative solution is that he is never surprised because he is expecting it every day.

Re: Unexpected hanging paradox

#87
post #3

The judge has underspecified the process. Judge says "on a weekday," and that it will be a surprise to the person being executed. But the judge has not specified which weekdays are actually in play. Now, let's attempt to specify it: "Judge will schedule the execution for one of the following days in the upcoming week: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. Judge will pick one of these days at random. This r…

So your real point is the tension between random process and process such that the person being executed will not be able to use a process of elimination to predict the day of the execution ? If we don't care about randomness, can't the judge just use the strategy of Always pick Wednesday ? If we do care about randomness, the job is to explore whether we're guaranteed to surprise the convict, and of course we're not:…

> If we don't care about randomness, can't the judge just use the strategy of Always pick Wednesday?

The point is that because the process is underspecified the prisoner is using one interpretation while the judge is using another. (Otherwise the judge would have had to conclude that no choice could be made.) The reader switches between the two specs in an apparent paradox without considering that they are two different specs.

For example, the judge could simply be breaking the rule by considering Friday as a possible choice. That is a different spec from the prisoner, and if such a judge ended up settling on Wednesday then the prisoner would be surprised.

But here's another angle. If the prisoner logically concluded that the judge cannot pick any weekday, the judge can pick Friday and still satisfy the requirement that the prisoner be surprised.

I think that's cheating, though, and the important part is the underspecification.

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