The notion that the break even point is 70% is ignoring some really important stuff. If you reserve workload x on hardware y for n years, you're effectively strapping yourself into a sure-to-be-obsolete and more expensive platform which you'll have to then move off of at an arbitrary point n years in the future. If you don't move, you wind up paying a premium to be stuck with the obsolete / more expensive platform ju…
You’re also locking in to outdated prices. Moore’s law is at your back with cheaper prices every year.
Also bear in mind that the savings you get from RIs will generally outweigh the reduction in price of the instance.