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Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

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Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#71
post #3

"Offering managers didn’t have technical backgrounds and sometimes came up with ideas for new products that were simply impossible." Sounds like they drank their own kool-aid, e.g., "Products That Enhance and Amplify Human Expertise," rather than understand the actual limitations and possibilities of ML. And it seems to me that they're still doing it with this nonsense about a human-level "AI" debating stack. The ove…

Are the articles at ieee.org usually technically competent?

To see one of their articles with the common press confusion of mixing different definitions and interpretations of AI (correct or incorrect) doesn’t help build confidence.

For example, what was used to play Jeopardy vs. approaches being taken to improve cancer treatment, are just so different, it seems almost disingenuous to throw it all haphazardly into one conceptual bucket.

The article does IBM a disservice in some ways. They come off looking bad overall but some of the failed projects mentioned like MD Anderson, failed for reasons beyond any control they had, other than recognizing some obvious red flags earlier and detaching their name and participation from it.

On the other hand I believe the article lets them offf the hook to easily when they bring out the old trope they’ve been using for years, which is encapsulated here:

“IBM Watson has great AI” [one engineer said] “It’s like having great shoes, but not knowing how to walk—they have to figure out how to use it.”

It doesn’t make sense to say, xyz is great we just have to figure out how to use it, as a stand alone argument. It’s nonsensical unless you mention something about the seeming implied untapped potential, specific innovations, novel approach, or whatever makes it great.

I’m not familiar with all their IP so maybe there are some great things, you just don’t get to claim that and get off the hook so many times in the press without providing at least some detail or reference point.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#72

This stuff is the friggen worst if you ask me. i'm so done with the AI hype train and IBM is the worst. Linked article mentions a 'watsons law' (similar to moore's law etc). If you ask me, it is more likely for watsons law to be that all commercial BigCo 'AI' offerings will burn thru hundreds of millions and ultimately fail rather then the intended meaning. "Phytel’s contribution was analytics paired with an automate…

IBM was simply an AI hype train grifter. AI is still valuable (although it's not advancing as quickly now as it was in, say, 2015), it's just that you have to dig deep to make sure that the "AI" being used is actually AI and that it's being used in an appropriate way.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#74
post #33

The problem at IBM is not technological; it's managerial . For a long while now, IBM has been treating "AI" as a product that can be managed, packaged, and sold by "general" business managers -- think MBA-types with only a superficial, qualitative grasp of deep learning and AI. Doing that with rapidly evolving technology is a sure-fire recipe for failure . Most such MBA-types today are ill-equipped to manage, package…

MBAs vs. undergrads with liberal arts degrees is a whole other discussion. An argument can definitely be made for a liberal arts skill-set in terms of adaptability and capacity to quickly learn other skills/subjects. Not sure if that encompasses something as complicated or esoteric as the technicalities of AI/ML, though.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#76
post #33

The problem at IBM is not technological; it's managerial . For a long while now, IBM has been treating "AI" as a product that can be managed, packaged, and sold by "general" business managers -- think MBA-types with only a superficial, qualitative grasp of deep learning and AI. Doing that with rapidly evolving technology is a sure-fire recipe for failure . Most such MBA-types today are ill-equipped to manage, package…

Not sure how to directly link to the post on HN, but I previously posted a (too long) comment that hits on some very similar points: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16960675

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#77
They can't just build a system, and leave it for the customers to do all the hard work of integrating various systems. Integration is the key and should be seen as product in itself.

If IBM stops milking the cow like the services, asking the customers to integrate, It will die a miserable death, and unfortunately a premature one.

It should be pluggable, like set of pick and choose building blocks of interfaces, that only should take domain expertise and custom specifications as input from the client (Which ever domain.) Until then AI only will become ambitious Sunk cost.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#78

This stuff is the friggen worst if you ask me. i'm so done with the AI hype train and IBM is the worst. Linked article mentions a 'watsons law' (similar to moore's law etc). If you ask me, it is more likely for watsons law to be that all commercial BigCo 'AI' offerings will burn thru hundreds of millions and ultimately fail rather then the intended meaning. "Phytel’s contribution was analytics paired with an automate…

AI as a research field generates plenty of useful applied techniques that make real products possible. The problem, which Watson is ground zero of, is calling AI itself a product -- like something you can just mix in and make business processes better.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#79
post #2

Isn't this just the same problem IBM has had for...well...most of my adult life? I had a contract gig at IBM Advanced Technology in Boca for about 18 months in early 2001-2002. Talk about missing the boat... I was brought in to prop up a soon-to-be-failed project for the Japanese government...basically a "Napster for Tokyo" that would allow paid-for-play C2C song sharing for customers of "the Big 5" record companies.…

I heard this joke years before working at Kaleida Labs (a joint venture of Apple and IBM), but it rang true while I was living the joke:

Q: What do you get when you cross Apple and IBM?

A: IBM.

While I was working at Kaleida, I gave a wild ScriptX demo to Lou Gerstner using a bouncing eyeball to navigate a map of interactive rooms. After the demo, he complained that "The eyeball was a little too right-brained for me." I was all "Dag nab it, I should have used the other eyeball!!!"

https://medium.com/@donhopkins/1995-apple-world-wide-develop...

"The last thing IBM needs right now is a vision." -Lou Gerstner

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_V._Gerstner_Jr.

Re: Layoffs at Watson Health Reveal IBM’s Problem with AI

#80
post #46
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's surely part of the problem, but the catalyst is the marketing strategy that is used to brainwash the employees. In essence; sell the experience, not the product. This works well for IBM generally (the products are shit) but especially well for Watson because it's extremely easy to sell AI without getting bogged down in details. You want to identify brain tumors? We'll just teach Watson to do it. Whilst IBM res…

> This works well for IBM generally (the products are shit) but especially well for Watson because it's extremely easy to sell AI without getting bogged down in details. The cynic in me says that every use of the term AI in any capacity is to sell experience and not functionality. When was the last time you used a product billed as 'AI' and thought 'wow, this is a huge game changer'? Siri is cool, but it's ultimately…

I use & depend upon plenty of products that are built upon AI - GMail spam filtering & categorized inbox, Google image search, YouTube & Netflix recommendations, cheque OCR at my ATM, predictive keyboards on my phone, Amazon's "people also buy with this product" feature, Google translate, computer opponents in games that I play, and all of the signals that feed into Google Search.

The irony is that not one of these bills itself as AI. It's just "a product that works", and the company that produces it is happy to keep the details secret and let users enjoy the product. So you may be right that the term "AI" itself is pure salesmanship. When it starts to work it ceases to be AI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect

Also - humans only look like we're fast at picking up new domains because we apply a helluva lot of transfer learning, and most "new" domains aren't actually that different from our previous experiences. Drop a human in an environment where their sensory input is truly novel - say, a sensory deprivation tank where all visual & auditory stimulation is random noise - and they will literally go insane. I've got a 5-month-old and a project where I'm attempting to use AI to parse webpages, and I will bet you that I can teach my computer to read the web before I can teach my kid to do so.

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